iPad Sales May Decline to Lowest Quarterly Level Since 2011

[MisterK]

It is interesting to think about what should be done to change the iPad's trajectory. I feel like there's still a lot of room for a screen that's larger than a phone but still ultra portable/mountable.

Here are a few ideas to just throw out there:
A barebones version
My old office had tablets outside each meeting room that showed that room's meeting schedule. Any iPad is overkill for this purpose. With all the home automation going on through HomeKit, there's a lot of room for iPads to be purpose built to control rooms. Again, any iPad is too much for this. Think of all the museum, restaurant, and shop kiosks and POS systems. What I'm imagining is a barebones iPad. Rugged, very little memory(2GB?), smaller screen (7"?), no gyroscopes, no cameras, and essentially always running a proper kiosk mode. I'd feel a lot better about buying one that just acts as a media controller and another as a Nest type device, even a baby monitor.

iPad OS
There's been a lot written about this, so I won't go too far but there is room for iOS on iPad to have a pro version of the OS. I actually feel like Apple is making moves towards this with split screen and pen. More of this, please.

HyperSwift
I'd love to see a HyperCard/swift mashup that lets people actually use touch to program apps, automation, and IoT,. I feel like this is a real blue-sky moonshot idea that is worth doing and, like most moonshots, we'd learn a lot along the way; in this case more sophisticated touch interactions not intended to necessarily be easy for a toddler or new user. If the next generation is the most comfortable on a touch screen, it's best to not put a wall on that interaction model. Let it grow more powerful and sophisticated as the user becomes more sophisticated. Let "productivity" mean more than drawing and typing.

 

[BuffaloTF]

The iPad needs a home screen, my events for today, tomorrow, ... Configurable "glances" for the apps you want a quick overview from.

This exists already?

In landscape orientation, as in this photo of... Honeycomb? Just pull down the shade. The "Today" page with all that info plus all the widgets or "glances" you want to add in are visible, along with a small notification panel on the right side of it...

 

[KdParker]

symptom of a saturated market for tablets.

this will only get worse going forward.

 

[samcraig]

Yes, but even so, it took MS 3 tries to get it right. The SP3 is a great tablet and I really like it. the Sp4 is even better, but it seems MS stumbled out of the gate with it.

So the inverse of what Apple has done

 

[sracer]

Yes, but even so, it took MS 3 tries to get it right. The SP3 is a great tablet and I really like it. the Sp4 is even better, but it seems MS stumbled out of the gate with it.

"Took MS 3 tries to get right" is open to debate. I contend that they still have not gotten it right. They're closer than they were, but still far away from where they need to be. Gutting Windows (which is an enterprise-strength OS) would be a significant first step. Seriously, there are so many things (like Group policy, etc.) in Windows that makes sense for corporations but no sense for consumers. Remove those things and performance and stability improve. THAT was were Windows RT was headed, but Microsoft got scared and ran.

 

[Marco123]

The problem with making the iPad pro like the surface is lack of battery life and carrying a power pack about.
When you run a full OS you accept the pitfalls of that also.

 

[mazz0]

Well, I for one will upgrade if and when they introduce ranged, wireless charging!

 

[Marco123]

I absolutely convinced that missing the education momentum is their biggest fault.
But that goes further back than just the iPad, I've seen schools first hand try the iPad and iOS route but fail at every hurdle.
I know 9.3 seems to try to correct this but you're to late Apple. I used to think that Apple would grasp this but I now realise that this is something that MS have sewn up.

 

[theluggage]

1. Durability - a four year old iPad (4th generation for instance) still runs well enough for most people.
2. Market saturation - hard to sell a $270/500 device when 7-inch tablets start under $200 and Amazon Kindle fires start at $35.

3. Competition from large-screen phones. True, a phablet won't replace a tablet for everybody, but it does hit the "email, games and web on the go" spot. The 5" screen in your pocket is more use than the 9" screen in your bag up on the luggage rack... Since I got a large-screen phone my iPad has rarely left the house. The MacBook cannibalises the tablet market from the other end...

4. Novelty worn off: I think there will always be a market for tablets, but the idea that they're the future of computing was industry hype and wishful thinking. As soon as you need a keyboard the ergonomics go out of the window and you're better off with a clamshell laptop.

5. The whole PC industry is facing a slowdown. Time was when hardware really did start to feel slow and outdated after 18 months - now the only way for that to happen is though planned obsolescence - and it will need to be a lot more brazen than just soldering in the RAM.

 

[jamezr]

I do admire what Microsoft did, but as an AAPL shareholder, I don't want Apple to do the same thing.
If Apple gave the iPad more notebook capability, they might increase the sales of iPads, but they would be stealing that marketshare from themselves. We'd get headlines about iPad sales increasing, and we'd get headlines about Macbook Air sales falling off a cliff. Apple would be doomed.

Microsoft didn't make notebook computers, so the marketshare they were stealing was from other companies. (There's a bit of a downside there in that they're losing the Windows OEM licenses they would have sold to those other companies.)

Often, when people say what they think Apple should do, it's a matter of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Such as:

Add ports, windowing, and filesystem access to iPad. Sell more iPads (but fewer MacBooks).
Add telephony features to iPad. Sell more iPads (but fewer iPhones).
Lower the price of the iPad. Sell more iPads (but make less money).

Agreed! But it puts them in a position where another company will fill the gap left between Apple's offerings. Like MS did with the SP line. Other companies are also doing the same. Don't get me wrong there is no doom or gloom for Apple. They are doing great.
While they position their offerings to try not to take sales from each other by limiting features, it leaves room for other companies to step in with competing products.

 

[diipii]

.... "But I think there is also a demand for more simplistic devices."

Spot on. Sooner the better. Simplify the OSs, get rid of all the infantile apps and let us adults and professionals have something much more slimmed down, efficient and free of bugs.

 

[pat500000]

Hey apple...when you first mentioned dr. Dre show...everything starts going downhill....

 

[Keirasplace]

Agreed! But it puts them in a position where another company will fill the gap left between Apple's offerings. Like MS did with the SP line. Other companies are also doing the same. Don't get me wrong there is no doom or gloom for Apple. They are doing great.
While they position their offerings to try not to take sales from each other by limiting features, it leaves room for other companies to step in with competing products.

How is it "filing the gap", have you even looked at sales number for the surface?
With the slew of competing hardware from other makers this year, the surface is going to have a bad year for sales.

 

[Pagemakers]

iCloud Drive is killing the iPad.

It's a mess that only half works.

Then again if it worked properly I'd dump my 2015 MacBook.

 

[Keirasplace]

Agreed. If this wasn't the case, Microsoft's Surface Pro 4 wouldn't be selling so well right now.

With that said, part of the problem is that the vast majority of the population aren't power users, and unlike the iPhone there are no installment plans and subsidies in place.With installments and other plans, Apple and the carriers can get existing users to upgrade every 1-2 years even though the market is saturated. No one is going to drop $500 "cash" on a new iPad when their iPad 2 surfs the web and plays bejeweled perfectly fine. I suspect a similar fate would have happened to the iPhone by now if everyone had to drop $650-$850 cash every time they wanted to upgrade.

Again the "selling so well" meme, well it is NOT selling so well, Ipad pro sold more in its launch 6 weeks that fell in Q1 than all Surfaces. Base your argument on something else than your gut feeling. Considering that the surface is mostly used as a laptop it only makes sense as a "success" in that sphere, not in tablets.

Or should the Ipads now be considered as laptops as soon as they got a keyboard. MS Surface apologists want to have it both ways.

 

[jamezr]

How is it "filing the gap", have you even looked at sales number for the surface?
With the slew of competing hardware from other makers this year, the surface is going to have a bad year for sales.

It is the best hybrid on the market did you read all of the posts about it? Don't just jump in and expect to get context.
Apple released the iPad Pro just to compete with the Surface Pro line. So far IPP sales haven't been what they hoped and are far behind the MS SP sales.

 

[Keirasplace]

The problem is the iPad is already too powerful for what it can do. They need to introduce compelling software features that take advantage of powerful hardware. Who needs a tri-core A8X to post to Facebook? It was nice that they added split-screen multitasking, but personally I barely use it. I like my iPad Air 2 and might upgrade if they add Apple Pencil support to the 3. But I doubt most people would upgrade just for that. Apple should release some compelling pro apps.

It's too bad they stopped making Aperture. That would be a compelling reason to have a higher-end iPad for a lot of creative types. Lightroom Mobile is neat but lacks basic functionality like importing RAW files on the device itself. I don't expect my iPad to hold an entire library, but it would be great if I could dump a shoot onto it and get some quick edits to post online. Maybe use the Apple Pencil to dodge and burn and retouch. If I need to do any finishing work or calibrate the colors for printing, it could easily sync back to the library on my Mac—either via iCloud or even USB as RAW files are big. It would also be nice to get Logic Pro X, and at some point down the road maybe Final Cut Pro X. They need a better way of managing files in a project-based production workflow. But I think the iPad could handle the additional complexity these apps bring—especially if they add 3D Touch.

I think the iPad has matured, much like the Mac. But many regular users only buy one or the other. It might be time to make a hybrid device. Something that, unlike the Microsoft Surface, does tablet and desktop well. Apple has some nice patents up their sleeve for quickly switching an OS UI from touch optimized to mouse optimized and vice versa. The advent of high-end processors with laptop-quality performance such as the A9X makes this possibility more likely than ever. Factoring in the confluence of Mac OS and iOS over the years makes it even more likely. I know the naysayers mention how Apple would never do it because they've said they wouldn't. But Apple has done a lot of things they said they would never do: Apple Pencil, iPad Mini, iPhone Plus, NFC payments, video iPods—these are just the ones I can come up with on the spot. Nothing is off limits. You're always going to minimize your competitors until you have an answer. And Apple often answers well.

The reviews for the Surface's, tablet side are very lack luster and sales aren't that great and build quality reviews have been pretty bad in online forums (way way worse than anything Apple every did), so why the hell even put that up as an example. Sales aren't that great either.

 

[kidaje]

I wonder if you realize how silly this sounds. Because you don't see them or know someone that has one (which I bet you actually do - not everyone brags about their tech) they must not be around you? Well I'll help you with your question. I live in NYC. Typically on the subway I see a plethora of devices. From iPhones to Notes to Windows phones. I see kindles, kindle fires, iPads and Samsung tablets. I see people reading newspapers and books and not using any technology. It's amazing.

You know its 1 out 7 tablet device sales worldwide that's supposed to be Samsung?

In the tiny country Denmark where i live that not the case.... Maybe we're just silly in Denmark

 

[samcraig]

Related since it's been discussed in this thread: http://www.androidpolice.com/2016/0...-education-will-focus-on-chromebooks-instead/

Google is going to stop selling tablets to schools under google for education. They are focusing on chromebooks...

 

[AppleScruff1]

How is it "filing the gap", have you even looked at sales number for the surface?
With the slew of competing hardware from other makers this year, the surface is going to have a bad year for sales.

Or at least you hope so.

 

[JimEJr]

What app is that featured in the cover pic?

 

[RickInHouston]

symptom of a saturated market for tablets.

this will only get worse going forward.

Just wait until this happens with phones. It is near and they know it.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Just wait until this happens with phones. It is near and they know it.

And the watch isn't going to pick up the slack.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Not quite. Cars are also seen as a necessity,(So much so that many low incomes will willingly spend half their income to have one) and thus sales are pretty much going to be proportional to the increasing population. Cars also have many financing options. Most will gladly invest $100-$200/month on a car payment thats gets them to work or errands everyday than spending $500 every year on an iPad. A car and iPad not even really comparable for most people.

Cars may be a necessity, but as I said, they last longer than iPads. Go take a look at any used car lot and I'll bet you'll find more than a few that are just a few model years old. And, again as I said, even still sale grow -- not used car sales, but new car sales. People are not trading in all all those cars out of necessity, but because they want the latest and greatest. Otherwise there would be no used car market.

And iPads also have financing options. It's called a credit card. It's called a CellCo company. There are many ways to finance an iPad. And we are talking about something that is on average well under $1000. Cars are tens of thousands so your point is ridiculous. An iPad is 1.5 car payments and you are telling me iPads cost too much. It's not that they cost too much, it's that they cost too much for what little improvements each succeeding model offers so why bother.

 

[jsalda]

Just innovate. I'm on my first tablet (Air1) and use it daily, but there's no reason to upgrade. I thought that I wanted a Pro, but all it offers me is a bigger screen. My Air is currently fast enough, so I doubt I'd benefit from increased performance. My Pencil from Fifty-Three works good enough for notes and light sketching. Until there is a solid reason where my iPad can replace my 2011 MacBook Pro, it will remain mostly a media consumption device.

I read a tutorial on Adobe.com how one artist used an ipad and Adobe tools to create an illustration. About halfway through the article, I started laughing out loud. The hoops this guy had to jump through, switching between programs, taking screen shots, etc, was ridiculous. He could've easily created the same illustration in less than half the time with Creative Cloud apps. Adobe is trying to create innovative software, but I think they are limited by iOS. Until Apple lays a good foundation through the OS, I don't think we'll see much progress.