Your logic fails on one point--shipments of both products are increasing, not decreasing. That means that the products are selling almost as quickly now as they were the week after they hit the market. iPads are still selling at a rate of nearly a million a month and I can't begin to estimate iPhone 4 sales as yet. It looks to me that the products are selling just fine and the new commercial is simply to pop a reminder into the heads of people who haven't yet noticed them. (Believe me, more techies know about Apple's products than do Average Consumers.)