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iPad Supply Constraints Begin to Ease, iPhone 4 Expected to Follow
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The iPad launch was far more successful than the original iPhone launch- and it is pretty clear to see where the iPhone went.
The iPhone 4 is still in extremely short supply up here in Canada. My wife managed to score a 16GB model last week at the local Bell store (she was on a waiting list), but I am still waiting for a 32GB model. I am on the waiting list at the local Bell store, but they are not receiving any shipments...only get one or two 16GB models occasionally. They have not received a single 32GB unit yet since launch. The supply does not seem anywhere near catching up to the demand here yet for the iP4....bummer.
It didn't say anything about 'initial surge' or demand has subsided.
Rather, manufacturing has increased to meet the demand.
The 16GB 3G+WIFI and the 16GB WIFI are the most popular ones.
I had to wait around 2 weeks for my pre-ordered iPad to arrive.
The 32GB and 64GB were in stock most of the time.
*my information is based on Germany
I can back up that statement. Everywhere around me in Germany and Switzerland you can walk into any store and pick up a 32GBWifi, 32GB 3G, 64GB Wifi and 64GB 3G.
Most people I know just laughed when they heard the price points. The 16GB Wifi version is fine and we just tether it to our phones. Every time I walk past our local Apple store there are shelves full of 32 and 64GB models. The 16GB is gone within hours of a shipment arrival.
No this is not calculated. There is no way that Apple could have been sure that the iPad would be the hit that it is. All previous tablets had basically failed and the iPad has some serious weakness. Turns out that its strengths (i.e., it is magical) overcome its weakness in a big way. But no one can say that the iPad success was always and obviously guaranteed. I bought $10,000 worth of Apple stock right after the iPad was introduced because I thought it was awesome and it would be a hit. But had I been "100% sure" I would have bought $100,000. Apple basically did the same thing by bring on lots of manufacturing but no the maximum amount it could have.
For the last time though, Apple is trying to get the first mover advantage in the tablet wars. They want to sell as many as they possibly can to preempt potential android and windows customers. There is no artificial or strategic supply constraint going on.
did you try the Apple store? ... for the iPhone 4, everyplace I spoke to said they only got a minimal units shipped, but the Apple store had lots.
P.
My friend and his wife are new to iPhone, but not to Macs. They ordered themselves two iPhone 4's and the wait time was 7-14 business days, which I thought was odd, since everyone was saying 14-21. They ordered on Sunday the 8th of August and they arrived only five business days later on Friday the 13th (spooky). They were glad because I was leaving to go back to school this Friday and they didn't think they would arrive in time. But they arrived so fast! So I was able to teach them about iPhones and got them setup with the best apps and MobileMe trial. They absolutely love it! It's so great to see it through their eyesthe excitement of getting your own iPhone for the first time, staying up late playing with it, being amazed at what some of the apps can do. It's the best.
Hey. I'm not implying that things go down dramatically, but Apple had a 600,000 pre-order backlog to take care of. And on top of that Apple also sold another 1.100,000 units. That to me is a massive backlog to take care of. And Apple has yet to take care of the pre-orders in other countries [see below].Shut down the assembly line, Apple, Master Chief has spoken.
And it was actually an Apple statement, made by Peter Oppenheimer during the Apple Reported Third Quarter Results which made it clear [to me] that iPhone 4 sales went down after the initial launch. The so called pre-orders, but this is nothing to worry about.
What I mean is that things are slowly coming down to acceptable levels, for both Apple and its suppliers, not that it stops. Not at all.
I'll try to answer this later on.
Where's your evidence? Have a link handy?
Also. We, a group of share holders, did our own investigation, on a rather large number of stores in Europe, of which non had any stock at all. All had a backlog, for up to 12 weeks. So where's the shipment you talk about, going to?
And yes. We do worry about the fact that some people have to wait for up to three months. Giving them an opportunity to shop elsewhere. Some might even be forced to shop elsewhere, because who can do without a phone for so long.
Now have a look at Korea. An amazing 130,000 units were sold in under 13 hours [compare to the 600,000 pre-orders in the US and other countries where the iPhone 4 was initially launched]. That's a huge additional number of units to produce and ship.
Is it? I would be more than happy to eat my words, but the fact is that Apple isn't spreading the world of love to share holders.
Funny. You basically state the exact same thing, but in different words: Both the iPad and the iPhone are not selling as much as it did initially, but are doing just great.
And by saying that the initial boom is over, and Apple itself made it clear by showing the numbers, then I don't mean that it is slowing down in a bad way. Not at all.
What I mean is that to preserve the same numbers today, Apple now needs more countries to perform equally. And I'm not making this up myself, but this is a fact of life. Does it mean that it is bad? No sir. Not at all. This is how it works.
Oh absolutely. The products are selling well, but it is slowing down. That's what we were told by the stores we've investigated. Again. This is a normal thing.
You may have missed it, but Apple was unable to sell the same amount of iPhone 4's after the initial launch. Which, again, is pretty normal. For any Apple product. Nothing wrong about it.
Sure, and nowhere did I even imply otherwise so I'm not sure what to do with this.
They did not know how many they would sell initially; every other tablet has been a commercial failure. They didn't increase the price because of demand. If they had, they could be accused of manipulating the situation.
Apple's own suppliers (specifically the IPS display manufacturers) admitted that they couldn't keep up with the surprisingly strong demand. Apple also delayed the international rollout in some markets.
From a capitalism standpoint, it makes little sense for Apple to leave money on the table by drying up availability when they aren't taking any price increases (and thus fattening their margins).
Haha, I did the something similar... the initial reaction was kinda lukewarm so I bought a few '000$ right after the intro, I kinda regretted not getting in more.
The initial estimates were 1-4 million units in the first year, the forecasts were later updated (in April) to 7 million for end of 2010 alone. The latest forecast (July) are 12.8 million for end 2010... _so far_ it seems like Apple are meeting or exceeding the forecasts... recently using both Samsung and LG for displays to relieve the supply constraints.
P.
I think iPhone supply constraints have eased already
I walked into the Apple store last week and bought one, and they had plenty in stock
then 2 days ago i ordered one from AT&T for my girl and even though it says "ships in 2-3 weeks", I got an item has already shipped notification email the very next day
I walked into the Apple store last week and bought one, and they had plenty in stock
then 2 days ago i ordered one from AT&T for my girl and even though it says "ships in 2-3 weeks", I got an item has already shipped notification email the very next day
2 Million iPads A Month Not 1
So if the revised guesstimate is correct, monthly manufacturing and sales volume is approaching and will soon be 2 million not 1 as some have stated here. Plus the full International deployment is not complete yet. So peak sales in each new country will maintain strong demand through October when the Holiday surge will renew demand volume everywhere.
Not surprised, it's been a while since it's been out and Apple probably fixed all the little kins in the system- thus having better production. It's still relatively expensive so I don't know how well it will keep selling, since those who bought it right after it released are huge fans.
So if the revised guesstimate is correct, manufacturing and sales are approaching and will soon be 2 million. A month not 1 as some have stated here. Plus the full International deployment is not complete yet. So peak sales in each new country will maintain strong demand through October when the Holiday surge will renew demand volume everywhere.
it's actually more.
It's estimated that Apple will ramp to 2.5 million per month by year end.
The estimates for 2011 is 36 million, and 50 million for 2012 by iSuppli.
2.5 million/per month by year end is just to keep afloat - it won't be enough for 2011 (although Jan-feb will provide a break). (_if_ Apple does meet these sales _forecasts_).
However, Apple can't just phone Samsung/LG/Foxconn and say build more capacity, factories, etc by next Monday - So they have to work off of forecasts and put pre-orders in place. So to ramp up for 2011, Apple suppliers has to start preparations & negotiations to building extra capacity now. (it's handy to be able to write Samsung a cheque for $500 million and say 'here's an advance payment', put me in priority)
I think Apple (and other companies) actually plan it this way... they get a bump during the intro (US), another bump during international launches, another bump during Back to school (US), another bump Holiday season ... Launch a version 2 in March-May next year and start again.
P.
i'm skeptical if Apple will make the iPad forecast numbers for 2011. Mainly because of upcoming competition in the Android/Chrome/Windows/etc market.
But, i think that the ip4 numbers sounds more realistic and achievable.
P.
To wait it out to buy at the store or order?
Seems like all of the Apple stores in Northern Virginia get a few of 4's just about each day in but sell out in hours. Thought I had one -- they had a few when I called but an hour later, gone.
Best thing to do is just order it but then I spend a few days trying to time the delivery guy returning the undeliverable package to the Fedex center. "Hasn't returned yet. Try tomorrow." Tomorrow: "Hmmm. Looks like he tried to deliver it again, come back this evening again..." Was there a way to specify not to attempt delivery -- just hold for pickup -- when we order via the Apple Store?
Seems like all of the Apple stores in Northern Virginia get a few of 4's just about each day in but sell out in hours. Thought I had one -- they had a few when I called but an hour later, gone.
Best thing to do is just order it but then I spend a few days trying to time the delivery guy returning the undeliverable package to the Fedex center. "Hasn't returned yet. Try tomorrow." Tomorrow: "Hmmm. Looks like he tried to deliver it again, come back this evening again..." Was there a way to specify not to attempt delivery -- just hold for pickup -- when we order via the Apple Store?
All of us vikings in Norway have to travel to France or something to get iPad.
That is actually fine. Because we are used to travelling. He he.
That is actually fine. Because we are used to travelling. He he.
Best Buy in Springfield, VA gets and still has iPhones
6 16gb in stock. The nearby AT&T store still hasn't received any since the initial release date.
6 16gb in stock. The nearby AT&T store still hasn't received any since the initial release date.
iPhone4 is still pretty hard to get up here in Canada. Or at least in Toronto. There are literally hundreds of people still lining up at Apple stores. I was able to get one today but i was in a line with at least 100 ppl on it. And they ran out of stock at about 3 pm. The same thing happened yesterday.
How about the article that these comments are responding to? The article clearly stated Apple would be shipping about 45% more this next quarter than they did this past quarter. No link necessary, just good reading skills.
