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I think the main problem of this analysis is missing what's "essential" in 2026. Specially, in some demographics.

The main computer for most people is their phone. And the only for many ones (and as I said, specially in some parts of the world).

Besides that, nothing is "essential". And a tablet is way cheaper and way easier to use than a traditional PC. As a result, iPads outsell Macs by a wild margin.

Many people joke about the post-PC era, but Jobs' vision of the Mac as a truck has become true. If the iPad hasn't grown even more is not because "it's not like a Mac", but because the smartphone and its capabilities have grown way beyond what we could imagine in 2010.
 
When it comes to me, I will keep buying iPads. My MBP is more essential in my case, but I enjoy using my iPad Pro way more.

However, I'm disappointed with the new multitasking introduced in iPadOS 26. Maybe it's ok for people trying to execute basic workflows with keyboard and mouse, but it's been a real regression for many "pro" iPad users. But still, the tablet experience remains.
 
So after all of Apples price hikes, it seems the iPad is now in a rare place, since it's not an essential device for most people. Laptop or computer? Yeah, that's essential, so people will keep buying it. Phone? That's essential too.

But a tablet? For most people it's a redundant device, so what will happen now? Will sales decline significantly? It's really expensive now to buy, say, an iPad Ai, and even the basic iPad starts at an excessive price now.
I agree it may not be essential, but I'll be buying one as soon as it comes out. I have a laptop but it's a pain to disconnect from docking station - shutting down attached hard drives etc. My iPad sits in my kitchen and is perfect to scan email and top news while drinking a cup of coffee, be available for arguing with my Hue lights on how they failed me on voice command, etc. The size works much better than my phone with my older eyes.

I have NO interest in a touch-screen laptop though, that is a feature not worth the price to me. Smudgy iPad is acceptable while I'm playing pinochle or scanning email but when I get down to work I don't want to need to be cleaning my screen constantly.
 
Some manage with an iPad and haven’t felt the need for a laptop. For those people, standard iPad is still a better enough deal in comparison to MacBook prices.

The pro versions are still ridiculously overpriced though and I wouldn’t touch one with a barge pole.
 
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After having “returned to the Mac” with a 13.6” M5 MBA, I realize that I probably won’t purchase another iPad Pro. Maybe a base 11” iPad but that would probably be for my parents rather than me.

After using my M2 iPad Pro as my main computer for 4 or 5 years, which has been an interesting experience, now that my MacBook Air is my main computer, I feel like there’s no turning back. Especially with the price hikes.

However, I will keep using my M2 iPad Pro and I really hope Apple doesn’t break the Mac-iPad compatibility, especially with Sidecar, and I can keep using my M2 iPad Pro for some of the tasks I’ve been using it so far.

But my future now lies on the Mac.

I haven’t seen the current prices of the iPad Pro or Air on my country, but if 800€ was already a pill hard to swallow, if the current price of the base model is above the 1k€, that’s a no for me. I’d rather spend an extra 200€ and have a MacBook Air. Or even get a MacBook Neo for two thirds of the price.
 
I use my iPads the most often, followed by my iPhone and then my Macs. I consider all of those devices essential for my purposes. But, if forced to choose, I could probably get by with the iPads and iPhone if I had to. A lot of what I do on my MacBook Pro can be done on my 13-inch iPad, even if not quite as smoothly and conveniently.

Everyone is different but I don’t see iPad sales falling off that much. I will admit the base iPad’s current price means it’s not as much of an easy, no-brainer purchase. And I wonder about the iPad Pro. It was never cheap but it’s a lot of money for what it is right now. I see many people defaulting to iPad Airs. Those with truly tight budgets might buy refurbished base iPads.
 
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So after all of Apples price hikes, it seems the iPad is now in a rare place, since it's not an essential device for most people. Laptop or computer? Yeah, that's essential, so people will keep buying it. Phone? That's essential too.

But a tablet? For most people it's a redundant device, so what will happen now? Will sales decline significantly? It's really expensive now to buy, say, an iPad Ai, and even the basic iPad starts at an excessive price now.

Love these posts that pretend to know what "most people" want, or claim without any evidence (such as sales numbers) that "most people" feel this way or that about a device, and support it with their own opinion (in this case, that laptops/desktops are "essential.")

OP, your experiences and priorities are your own. It's probably best to just own that and write a post that is just your opinion, rather than making up a fictitious "most people" to bolster your argument.

Nothing wrong with your own opinion at all. It's every bit as valid as the opinions of those who disagree and think an iPad is not in the least a superfluous device. Several of those people have commented above. I'm about to happily buy my mom a new iPad because it's her preferred device. Not at all "redundant" in her experience.
 
I personally sold my last iPad a couple weeks ago, an M1 air with the magic keyboard, took the money I got from it and bought an M1 MacBook Air and had money left over. iPad just isn't for me anymore, I never used it with a pencil, it was simply used for media consumption and some browsing. I find a MacBook to be much better fit for that use case. My kids never use their iPads anymore either, though I think because they are Air 3's and they have iPhones 16's, they find the iPads too slow now lol.

My mom still rocks her iPad 9th gen as her main "computer" but that's basically for browsing Facebook and checking her emails. But with all the price increases now, im not sure she will justify upgrading to another one in the future once her current one becomes too slow for her to use. The base model here in Canada is now $550 and that's on sale for $100 off!
 
Do you think the price will go down or everything else will just get so expensive it’ll feel reasonable by comparison?

Price go down? I think those days are gone across the board, for all products. Prices may even remain the same, but quality and/or content will be reduced.
 
That's an outright lie as it absolutely can replace a "true computer" whatever that nonsense term means.

Well I can’t run anything I want on it and it doesn’t work unless it’s tied to a cloud service.

It’s not a computer; it’s a terminal.
 
When the USB C iPad came out, I was super hyped by all the new possibilities that could come. And this was echoed and amplified by Apple's marketing campaign (remember What's a computer?) and (paid) YouTubers. It turned out that apple will never make the iPad a computer because you might then spend less money.

Screw you apple, I'll never buy your overpriced iPad!
But don't judge the merits of the whole line purely on the flagship. If it's about value, the base iPad does pretty much all the same things for much less money.

But even if you don't want any iPad, Apple is likely ok with that. They know not everyone is an iPad person, many are Mac people, and many are both. But that doesn't necessarily mean many want both in one device. macOS and iPadOS have very different focuses. macOS is focused on productivity; iPadOS is focused on ease of use. Their respective form factors also cater uniquely to their focuses--it's all streamlined (although iPads had to adopt an optional keyboard and trackpad in order to be a little more productive, especially for the iPad-only folks). But at their core, both devices retain their focus. Combining the two into one device would lose both focuses/identities, and you end up with a bit of a frankenstein, ie. no focus, and compromises that hinder the general UX, such as a desktop OS requiring a thicker heavier body for better thermals and bigger battery, and a disjointed transition between mouse and touch UI. That's not to say that product wouldn't be useful to some, but to determine a product's viability, it's a question of how many people. If the Windows world is any indication, it appears to be a somewhat niche group. The Surface Pro has really been the only major name in the game, and they've been scraping by with lackluster sales. So I think poor ROI, more than fear of losing iPad sales, is probably why Apple doesn't pursue a Mac tablet. Plus, if the demand was very strong, it's not even clear that they would be losing money. They could make an expensive Mac tablet and make much of that revenue back, plus likely gain significant sales from previously non-Mac users. But again, the demand is likely not strong due to the compromises of combining almost diametrically opposed devices/platforms.
 
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The iPad is such a limited device if you are doing anything more than content consumption. Yes you can use some cloud services.. until they disappear, steal your data, or become impossibly expensive themselves.

When the USB C iPad came out, I was super hyped by all the new possibilities that could come. And this was echoed and amplified by Apple's marketing campaign (remember What's a computer?) and (paid) YouTubers. It turned out that apple will never make the iPad a computer because you might then spend less money.

Screw you apple, I'll never buy your overpriced iPad!
You’re not right and you’re not wrong.

It all comes down to what software you need to do your job. There’s quite a few apps that run really well on iPad, including Apple’s own suite of tools (Numbers, Pages, etc)

If these apps suffice for work then by all means the iPad can be your computer. If someone needs Xcode or some other IDE to do the work, then iPad probably isn’t for them.

As for your overpriced statement, again: it depends. An iPad Pro for couch surfing is arguably an expensive item. An iPad Pro used for work is a cheap expense that will pay itself back in no time.

But then you don’t really need a Pro for couch surfing. A cheaper model will suffice. And an Air is a lot cheaper than a Pro.
 
I tried reading on an iPad and it just doesn't work. The light emitted by an iPad isn't very good if you use it just before sleep. There's studies on this.

I bought my first Kindle in 2014 and replaced it in 2024 with a Paperwhite. If I were sent to an uninhabited island and I had to pick a single device: Kindle all day long.
Agree 100 per cent. iPad is a poor reading device: the light emitting from the screen is too stimulating and the weight means hand strain after a while. I bought it for reading but Kindle wins out big time.
 
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