I agree. I think it's really hard to estimate what impact the pandemic is having on the sales of a new iPhone size that has never existed before -- both in terms of people who are unemployed or underemployed, as well as people who are employed but 100% work-from-home right now. Both of those factors could be influencing whether somebody would consider a larger device than they would've wanted pre-2020, or if they're able to afford upgrading at all. If you're home all the time for whatever reason, maybe you get by with an iPad, laptop, or old iPhone and don't upgrade until sometime in 2021 when a mobile phone makes more sense for your needs again?
I bought a 12 mini because I was due for an upgrade and as much as I wanted to keep the telephoto lens, I couldn't justify the weight and size of carrying another pocket brick all day long just so I'd have that telephoto lens for the 2-5 minutes/day that I actually engage it.
That being said, I also bought the 12 mini partially in anticipation of a return to "doing stuff" in 2021. While I found my iPhone X unwieldy the entire 3 years I had it, it was less of a burden this past year because I could easily cart it around in my hand with me from room to room as I went from the bedroom to work in the home office to the kitchen to the living room, etc. But that phone barely fit into my pants pockets and was uncomfortably too heavy to hold for more than a few minutes.
Now that I have the mini, I can't wait for spring, and to get vaccinated. I'm excited to take this phone on a hike. Not only is the normal camera better than my X's camera (albeit I will still miss the telephoto), it will be lightweight and slip right into my shorts pocket without a problem. I already tried it.
As far as Apple Watch, I could see that going either way. I've been using mine for fitness more than ever this past year. Going on outside walks/runs and I'm eager to try out Fitness+ with a new stationary bike we got last year. I think it has a place in the current conditions. When I got an "S0" Apple Watch years ago, I got it for the convenience of reading notifications and replying to messages without needing to grab my phone. I've since upgraded to an S4 and I use it all the time, even now. It's just that that use is more fitness-focused than mobility-focused since I'm not going much of anywhere these days.
I think a lot of people might be in the market for a new phone once they can peruse an Apple Store again without an appointment, temperature check, or fear of going to a public setting like a mall. Not to mention those who find new work post-pandemic and their needs require a new, portable mobile phone. All of this considered, I don't think we'll fully understand what could have been/should have been the demand for an iPhone mini until late 2021 or 2022 at the earliest when enough of the travel restrictions and fear, as well as economic upheaval subside.
