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1) People aren't buying iPhones every year or even every other year. The Apple nerds that do, will opt for the pro.
2) The launch date is later on, so it will inherently have lower pre-orders and orders may creep up as the launch day approaches.
3) The non-pro phones have historically had slower sales in the beginning. The 11 started selling better closer to the holidays. Sale success should be measured over a longer period of time beyond 1st week of pre-orders.
 
Is anyone even factoring the effects of usually high inflation into these sales numbers?

I'm thinking we're going to see Q4 sales for all new iPhone models are going to be below predictions. Sure, there is a surge by the devotees at launch. That will always happen. But, longer term, I see sales bottoming out due to lack of excess funds out there.

Food, rent and utility prices are all significantly up with wages not matching the rising costs. That puts a squeeze on mad money and impulse purchases. And, a lot of Apple purchases are impulse purchases. They market on that. People will decide that they can live with their old phone or Apple Watch for another year because things are so tight.
 
Who wants a Plus? Too big! I wanted a Mini 14.

Hopefully Apple will cancel the Plus sized phones now like the Mini line due to 'weak demand' . /sarcasm

But really, even if sales are weak, Apple and iPhone are big enough products to offer 3 sizes in the line.
 
The pros always outsell the regular models in the first few months. Though I can see why some would be put off with the plus considering the prices in Europe. Just checked Germany’s apple store and the base 14 plus is 1149 euro. That’s an insane price for last years chip, dual camera and 60hz.
 
Seems like a decent upgrade, but when most iPhones from X onwards are already doing most things, to a very decent amount, people aren't earning as much and have less spare money - it's not a wonder. Myself, I prefer rounded edges - I'm aware I might be in the minority - so I won't be upgrading until they move back, or I have to.
 
The type of casual user who would buy this model isn't the type to preorder a phone now that doesn't release until October. Over the long run the 14 Plus will become the best selling iPhone bar none. Just watch.
I'm sure the non-Pro models will outsell the Pro models over the year. I'm not 100% sure if it will be the 14 or 14 Plus, although I lean toward it being the 14 Plus.

Apple cancels the Mini because of weak sales, I frown. Apple replaces it with its opposite—a Plus, I frown more. The Plus has weak sales, I smirk.
I knew somebody would post that, but it's really quite foolish to smirk about that. iPhone mini sales were absolutely abysmal, whereas it's more than likely the Plus will be a high seller over the course of the year.

An illustrative snapshot was the April 2022 summary of iPhone sales. The top 4 worldwide selling phones were the iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro Max, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 12. After that were a bunch of Android phones, but the 13 mini didn't even make the top 10. In terms of percentage of iPhones sold, I think the iPhone 13 was something like 38%, whereas the iPhone 13 mini was 3%.

It was wholly expected that Apple would ditch the mini. Just about nobody wanted it.

For the same price, you can get a 13 Pro Max elsewhere.
This really only works in the first month, unless a carrier has excess inventory, since the 13 Pro Max has been discontinued. Or if you buy used, but that doesn't count toward sales numbers.
 
What this tells me is Apple just needs to have three flagship models:

- 5.5 to 5.8 standard iPhone
- 6.1 iPhone Pro
- 6.7 iPhone Pro Max

Make the 5.4 mini form factor take over the next generation iPhone SE slot. For those who just want a cheaper, smaller iPhone without all the bells and whistles.

For the flagship models, don’t water it down, give it the same SoC as the Pro’s and new features like Dynamic Island. Sure, screen quality and camera improvements can remain a premium.
 
"Apple's product segmentation strategy for standard models fails this year."

Conjecture from Kuo. Always a knee-slapper.
 
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To be fair, people who preorder are enthusiastic about it.
This is a model that someone will pick out in a store, because he has to get a new phone. And he just wants a large screen. This customer will be more price sensitive.


(Of course personally i would be very happy to see it fail more than the Mini. Just to show them that it was not a better choice)
 
tbh they may not have heavily produced these... and intentionally priced them that way to push people toward the Pro models. 2 years ago it was a tough call between the non-pro and pro model and like me I am willing to bet people spent the little bit more for the higher spec device. its only a problem if apple produced the plus model in significant numbers, but I am willing to bet they didn't produce that many.
 
Well, here in the U.S. its $200 more for the Pro Max and if its people just getting them via carrier deals or financed at 0% for 24 months then it won't make much if any difference...so could see people going for the Pro especially this year with all the stuff where there are actual updates on the Pro Max versus the Plus. Of course the pre-order folks are probably going to be much more likely to go Pro than the market a month or two down the road.

After a couple of months we'll see how the sales figures settle out - this is partly Apple guessing what will and won't sell so well before launch. Hanging on to my current, but while I'd normally go for the Plus the $200 and all the extra's for the Pro Max would make it a tempting choice.

Would not be surprised to see Apple rectify this problem next year with a $100 boost to the Pro Max to distance them out a bit, but we'll see.
It will be interesting to see the data on sales of this plus versus the 12 and 13 mini (separately of course).
Sadly, the 12 mini sales were like ~7% of iPhone sales and the 13 mini was below 5% (article here talked about it, I think the 13 mini was like 3%)...so no the Plus will easily blow those figures out of the water.
 
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It's a pretty hard sell considering it is not much of an upgrade from the 13, and you are not getting dynamic island. Most people are probably doing some sort of 0% financing, so are willing to spend an extra ~$8/month for a pro variant. I'm guessing the regular iPhone 14 sales will be lackluster.

Do you think people all have iPhone 13s and upgrade yearly?

There is no older model equivalent here still on sale for people to compare to.
 
I'm sure the non-Pro models will outsell the Pro models over the year. I'm not 100% sure if it will be the 14 or 14 Plus, although I lean toward it being the 14 Plus.


I knew somebody would post that, but it's really quite foolish to smirk about that. iPhone mini sales were absolutely abysmal, whereas it's more than likely the Plus will be a high seller over the course of the year.

An illustrative snapshot was the April 2022 summary of iPhone sales. The top 4 worldwide selling phones were the iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro Max, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 12. After that were a bunch of Android phones, but the 13 mini didn't even make the top 10. In terms of percentage of iPhones sold, I think the iPhone 13 was something like 38%, whereas the iPhone 13 mini was 3%.

It was wholly expected that Apple would ditch the mini. Just about nobody wanted it.


This really only works in the first month, unless a carrier has excess inventory, since the 13 Pro Max has been discontinued. Or if you buy used, but that doesn't count toward sales numbers.
I think apple had great success with the mini. They have access to the best market research possible and we’re likely fully aware the mini wouldn’t sell. The real purpose of the mini was to push up the price of the regular 12/13 in an at the time non inflationary environment (notice the pros didn’t rise in price) and it worked. Now the mini is gone but that new price point is permanent. Mission accomplished I’d say.
 
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iPhone was introduce 15 years ago. People are still expecting shipping delays on a very mature product? 🤦🏼‍♀️
 
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