I do kind of feel like the problem is that they replaced the SE with these phones, and they meet different target markets. With the SE, you had a lower price point, plus the Touch ID, and the smaller form factor, and the non-OLED display (I think that's the correct term, but the screen that doesn't cause some people headaches). It might not have been people's favorite phone or had the best technology or form factor, but for a lot of people, it was an acceptable alternative, and all of those small groups of people added up to decent sized group.
Now, if you fall into one of those groups of people there isn't really a phone for you (IIRC, there is one for the people who get headaches). So when those people upgrade, there is no specific reason to buy the 16E or 17 Air. I'd assume that most of them will remain in the Apple ecosystem, but maybe move to a different phone than those 2 models.
As for me, I'm a small phone fan first & Touch ID fan second. I am holding on to my 13 mini for as long as it works well enough. If they had come out with an SE4 that was similar to the SE 3, but with upgraded chips, memory, etc, I would have upgraded to that. As it is, sticking with the 13 mini makes more sense than the tradeoffs involved in any of the newer phones (for me).
Now, if you fall into one of those groups of people there isn't really a phone for you (IIRC, there is one for the people who get headaches). So when those people upgrade, there is no specific reason to buy the 16E or 17 Air. I'd assume that most of them will remain in the Apple ecosystem, but maybe move to a different phone than those 2 models.
As for me, I'm a small phone fan first & Touch ID fan second. I am holding on to my 13 mini for as long as it works well enough. If they had come out with an SE4 that was similar to the SE 3, but with upgraded chips, memory, etc, I would have upgraded to that. As it is, sticking with the 13 mini makes more sense than the tradeoffs involved in any of the newer phones (for me).