That all makes perfect sense, and is exactly how I’ve thought about it in the past. I’m actually on the Upgrade Program, and since I’m essentially leasing my phone, it makes sense to upgrade every year, which I’ve done every year since they started the program. The problem this year is that—at least on paper—I actually prefer the 16 over the 17, and imagine I would regret upgrading if I was to do so.
Regarding Apple’s direction, I do believe some of what made their brand so compelling was their focus on the customer experience; with using the devices, with their in-store experiences, and with their excellent support. Their stores and support have taken a major nose dive over the years, and now it seems (from my perspective) the same is happening with their hardware. So much of this new design seems gratuitous to me—changes for the sake of changes—not to make a better device, but to quiet the critics and provide a “new” device for those most loyal customers who upgrade every year. No one has yet convincingly explained why moving the flash and sensors away from the lenses, or changing from titanium to aluminum, makes for a better user experience.
All that said, I’ll be lurking around here once the new phone comes out, to see how the case manufacturers deal with this new challenge.