iPhone 3G Generation 2 Coming?

[Barbs]

What am I missing? Don't you just pay the ETF and that ends your contract?

Lets say I am 11 months into a 2 year contract with AT&T, and I want a newly released iPhone. Wouldn't I just pay whatever the ETF is at the time and that would terminate my current contract. Then when I buy the new phone, that would start up a brand new 2 year contract?

Am I missing something?

This is right from AT&T's website:

An early termination fee of $175 applies if service is terminated before the end of the contract term and will be reduced by $5.00 for each full month toward your minimum term that you complete.

So if I left after 11 months. I would have to pay an etf of $120 = 175-(11*5)

 

[Eso]

In part, the ETF is to offset the subsidy. It's also just a fee they can charge to make more money. You fulfill the contract or pay the ETF, either way AT&T recoups the money they subsidized for a phone.

 

[Indy21]

You people are driving me Nuckin' Futs!!!

I was strongly leaning towards getting my phone in January instead of waiting for summer now I'm right back thinking of waiting till June/July!!!

Ahhh, THE MADNESS!!!

 

[bradenwh]

No no no.

The iPhone 3G is NOT the second generation iPhone. It's a revision of the original iPhone, a 1.2, if you'd like to call it that.

Notice the iPhone firmware file names:

iPhone1,1_2.2 for the first iPhone.
iPhone1,2_2.2 for the iPhone 3G.

See? Even Apple confirms that the iPhone 3G is not the second generation iPhone.

 

[milani]

You make it sound like the $200 iPhone subsidy is some revolutionary thing, when in fact AT&T subsidies are not unique to the iPhone. Before the iPhone even came out I signed up with with them and got a free Motorola Razr with a two-year contract - a $200 dollar value. Carriers have been doing it for years. Their shares aren't "getting the crap beat out of them" because of it. The entire stock market has crashed. Case in point: compare the 52-week high and current stock price for Verizon and AT&T. Verizon is $45.70/$33.16. AT&T is $42.79/$28.53. They are 77.56% and 66.67% off from their highs, respectively. It's an 8% differential, which is not statistically significant with respect to the volatility of the stock market in a 52-week period (in other words, stocks often fluctuate by 8% in a matter of days). The point is that they are hardly preforming any worse than Verizon, making the effect of iPhone subsidies negligible. Subsidies come with short term loss which are offset by long term gains. AT&T knew full well that they were going to lose some profits in the short term by signing millions of new iPhone contracts.

The fact is, they WILL let iPhone customers upgrade every year as long as they meet AT&T's Upgrade Eligibility Requirements. They will do it because the iPhone subsidy is no different than for any other phone. Anyone paying $99+ per month for a single line can upgrade every 12 months. That is easily achieved with at least 900 minutes per month, the required data plan, and unlimited texting.



The current agreement already makes "business sense" and is in no way affected by any products or services that will be available in the future (namely a new iPhone). Apple does not have to "recoup their investments" to make a profit. iPhone sales accounted for over %40 of their total profits in the third quarter according to their earnings report. AT&T effectively "recouped" their investment (the subsidy) the moment you signed your contract, which guarantees it. Why do you think AT&T allows subsidized upgrades every 12 months with an expensive plan? Because they obviously have "recouped" their subsidy within that time X number of times over, and a new contract means they get to guarantee the same return for another year. You make it sound like AT&T would magically not make a profit if a new iPhone is released. All a new iPhone means to AT&T is the potential for even more new customers and a great incentive to keep many current customers for another 2 years on contract.

A Google search suggests otherwise.

 

[Eso]

A Google search suggests otherwise.

LOL care to be more specific, or did you just copy/paste my entire post into google and it simply reported zero results and the phrase:

Did you mean: otherwise

 

[The Phazer]

I know that many here would love to see yearly updates as we see with Mac’s and other products. But the Cell industry is not about one year cycles…It’s about 2 year cycles.

I'm sorry, but that's rubbish.

The mobile phone industry isn't about one year cycles. It's about six month cycles. Apple won't be trying to sell iPhones to the people who already have them. It'll be selling them to people who don't.

I would note that Nokia *already* announced the N97 - what, four months after the N96?

Phazer

 

[mlemonds]

I'm sorry, but that's rubbish.

I would note that Nokia *already* announced the N97 - what, four months after the N96?

Phazer

nokia n96 was announced in Feb. released in Sept.
nokia n97 shouldn't hit shelves until Q2 of 2009

i agree with a ~1 year product cycle, especially when you are not playing catch-up. i think you will see shorter cycle periods from other smartphone manufacturers that are feeling the iphone heat and need to grab new features, to make their offering seem more appealing.

 

[Indy21]

I'm sorry, but that's rubbish.

The mobile phone industry isn't about one year cycles. It's about six month cycles. Apple won't be trying to sell iPhones to the people who already have them. It'll be selling them to people who don't.

I would note that Nokia *already* announced the N97 - what, four months after the N96?

Phazer

I was gonna mention the same thing. The iphone has other manufactuers going crazy trying to release anything and everything at any given time. What about the htc diamonds? The diamond pro and isn't there an "hd" overseas as well?

It's ridiculous.

I don't think we'll see another iphone until the iphone start really seeing some competition and I don't believe any phone on the market right now poses a serious threat. Just my opinion.

 

[milani]

LOL care to be more specific, or did you just copy/paste my entire post into google and it simply reported zero results and the phrase:

Did you mean: otherwise

Alright I will be more specific: AT&T has taken, and continues to take a huge hit in terms of subsidizing iPhones, which means your entire point was wrong because you didn't differentiate subsidized iPhones from other phones. AT&T is only going to recoup the money they lost by subsidizing the millions of iPhone 3Gs over the 2 and 3 year contracts that they have. They are not going to release a new iPhone (assuming Apple made one, which they won't), because then AT&T would stand to lose even more money then they already have (by having to subsidize another round of iPhones). For a guy who comments a lot on "business sense," you really don't seem to have a clue.

And to everyone else, all the other phones you spoke of were not developed with a network provider. You guys all conveniently forget that AT&T actually helped develop the iPhone, which is why we don't have tethering, MMS, and a lot of other things. AT&T says no, and so we all (even those of us on other networks) are subject to the decision. This isn't Nokia, this is Apple+AT&T, and the yearly product cycle just doesn't apply at all. Sorry.

 

[Eso]

AT&T has taken, and continues to take a huge hit in terms of subsidizing iPhones, which means your entire point was wrong because you didn't differentiate subsidized iPhones from other phones.

The whole point of my post is that there IS no difference between the subsidy for the iPhone and the subsidy for any other phone. I got a free $200 dollar phone when I signed up, how is that different than getting $200 off the iPhone? If you don't believe me, check here:

Free package deals for new AT&T customers.

They are giving phone packages worth up to $350 out for free to new customers. Guess what - every carrier does it. Although you make it sound like AT&T is unique, they ALL initially lose money on subsidies in the short term, but they are guaranteed through contract to get their money back.

AT&T is only going to recoup the money they lost by subsidizing the millions of iPhone 3Gs over the 2 and 3 year contracts that they have.

It sounds like you mean they only make their money back over the full two year contract. Sorry, but wrong. They make their money back on subsidy in no more than 7 months, and often sooner. Maximum operating costs for their network, licences, fees, wages, employee benefits, etc. will average at to a maximum of $40 per month per customer. How do I figure this? $40 per month is the cheapest monthly plan you can have, meaning that for these customers AT&T would only break even. The minimum iPhone plan is $70 per month, for a profit of $30 minimum. Over 7 months that comes to $210 profit for AT&T, which covers their $200 subsidy. It's been four months since the iPhone 3G was released, meaning that anyone paying $100 per month or more has already paid back their subsidy.

Do you even realize the whole point of the upgrade eligibility? You are eligible for another subsidy after a certain amount of time which is dependent upon how much you pay per month. Why would they do this? To ensure that they make their money back before they dish you out another subsidy. You think that they will allow an upgrade after 12 months for $99+ monthly plans if they didn't make their money back yet? No. In fact, after 12 months and a $99 per month plan they will have already made a minimum of a $600 profit.

They are not going to release a new iPhone (assuming Apple made one, which they won't), because then AT&T would stand to lose even more money then they already have (by having to subsidize another round of iPhones).

How do you figure AT&T would lose more money? First of all, by next summer, anyone on any iPhone plan will have already paid back their original subsidy. Second of all, they would only subsidize the iPhone for their customers who quality as per their upgrade eligibility requirements.

Sorry, but every post of yours you sound more and more clueless to me, especially considering you never have any facts. You state that AT&T continues to take a "huge" hit on iPhone subsidies, yet where is your source to back it up? You claim they will lose money if they give out subsidies after a year, yet completely ignore AT&T's own upgrade eligibility requirements and their implications. Anyone here who has a plan of $99 or more can check for themselves and see that they will be eligible for a subsidy 12 moths to the date that they signed their contract.

 

[milani]

Sorry, but every post of yours you sound more and more clueless to me, especially considering you never have any facts. You state that AT&T continues to take a "huge" hit on iPhone subsidies, yet where is your source to back it up? You claim they will lose money if they give out subsidies after a year, yet completely ignore AT&T's own upgrade eligibility requirements and their implications. Anyone here who has a plan of $99 or more can check for themselves and see that they will be eligible for a subsidy 12 moths to the date that they signed their contract.

Like I said before, I just Googled keywords relating to costs for AT&T and the iPhone and troves of pages came up explaining how much AT&T has lost and stands to lose with the iPhone, and that they will only make that up after years of holding those millions of iPhone owners on contracts. I'm not going to cite the links because A) you wouldn't read them, and B) if you cared you'd look it up yourself.

Based on what I read, it makes little practical sense for AT&T to subsidize a new iPhone in a year (which of course there won't be in the first place), and basically put themselves back to where they were with the 3G (in terms of losing substantial amounts of money), when they haven't had a chance to make up the money they lost from the 3G yet. Especially because all the network improvements have been directly necessitated by the 3G, and those costs aren't made up by people paying back the subsidy alone. Anyway, it's hopeless discussing anything with you because you somehow turn your wish list about the iPhone (ridiculous and unfounded as it may be) into a personal debate with me.

Truth is I don't really care. Based on my investigation, I've concluded that there won't be a new iPhone next year. I've looked at the evidence (and lack of evidence suggesting there will be an update), and like many have concluded that your wish for a new iPhone is no more likely than the next person's wish that the next iPhone has a physical keyboard. As always though, I look forward to you telling me you told me so.

 

[Eso]

Like I said before, I just Googled keywords relating to costs for AT&T and the iPhone and troves of pages came up explaining how much AT&T has lost and stands to lose with the iPhone, and that they will only make that up after years of holding those millions of iPhone owners on contracts. I'm not going to cite the links because...

Just cite them.

 

[JamilD]

iPhone has been one of the most successful products of the 21st century. over 10 million sold, and counting. Discontinuing the updates would be literal suicide.

 

[milani]

Just cite them.

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/10...s-at-t-s-wireless-business-but-whacks-profits

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122125629848729679.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

http://seekingalpha.com/article/101474-was-the-iphone-deal-worth-it-for-at-t

http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/10/22/iphone-iphone-iphone-iphone-iphone/

http://sprintconnection.kansascity.com/?q=node/819

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/497155/

From my conclusion based on said articles it seems like the iPhone investment will start paying off around 2010. The reason is not simply because of the iPhone subsidies, but because AT&T continue to spend significant revenue on network upgrades related to the iPhone and its heavy requirements. Based on that, I don't believe AT&T will subsidize a new iPhone until 2010 or thereabout, and I don't believe Apple will develop a new iPhone to hit market before 2010 (for that reason and many many others that have already been listed in this and other threads).

 

[Eso]

Oops, I did it for you:

AT&T announced net income of $3.23 billion, or 55 cents a share, up 5.5 percent from $3.06 billion, or 50 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue rose 4 percent, to $31.3 billion from $30.3 billion a year ago, largely because of wireless gains. The $900 million payment to Apple amounted to 10 cents a share.

Even while paying out $900 million in subsidies for the iPhone, AT&T's profit has still increased over the previous year's by 5.5%. We are still talking about profits, right? AT&T's profits have actually gone up, not down. Yes, the iPhone subsidy cut into their profits, just like any other expense. Hurricane Ike cost them $154 million alone. But the key is their profits are still higher. The entire argument that the iPhone subsidy has decreased their profits is completely unfounded.

Even AT&T Is Startled by Cost of iPhone Partnership. Article published by the New York Times on October 22, 2008.

 

[bbotte]

Just wanted to remind everyone Jobs said nothing about a 16Mb iPhone in January of last year then February rolled around and we had 16Mb iPhones. I bought a 8GB 9 days before the 16 GB came out and took it back and made the Apple Store exchange them for 16GB ones and waive the restocking fee.

 

[Indy21]

I'm still believing they will there will be a 32gb version announced at MW and if so I think there's a good chance there won't be another one announced this summer.

But who knows really? Look at what happened last year. No MW iphone news really, then in feburary a 16gb is released and then by summer iphone 3G.

It will just drive you nuts trying to guess!

 

[Mikey B]

Oops, I did it for you:



Even while paying out $900 million in subsidies for the iPhone, AT&T's profit has still increased over the previous year's by 5.5%. We are still talking about profits, right? AT&T's profits have actually gone up, not down. Yes, the iPhone subsidy cut into their profits, just like any other expense. Hurricane Ike cost them $154 million alone. But the key is their profits are still higher. The entire argument that the iPhone subsidy has decreased their profits is completely unfounded.

Even AT&T Is Startled by Cost of iPhone Partnership. Article published by the New York Times on October 22, 2008.

I'm not sure you understood the article- it surely didn't prove your point. iPhone subsidies cost AT&T 900 million dollars, or 10 cents a share. They may be earning more profit this year than last, but they would have earned considerably more without the iPhone subsidies. As in, 900 million dollars, or 10 cents a share. Not to mention the price of their stocks which has taken a beating since the iPhone 3G was released. So that article very much supports the claim that AT&T's profits were diminished.

 

[milani]

I'm not sure you understood the article- it surely didn't prove your point. iPhone subsidies cost AT&T 900 million dollars, or 10 cents a share. They may be earning more profit this year than last, but they would have earned considerably more without the iPhone subsidies. As in, 900 million dollars, or 10 cents a share. Not to mention the price of their stocks which has taken a beating since the iPhone 3G was released. So that article very much supports the claim that AT&T's profits were diminished.

Thanks lol. I wasn't going to even bother anymore...

 

[Indy21]

Thanks lol. I wasn't going to even bother anymore...

Awww man, don't give up, this thread is just startin' to get gooood.

I'm enjoying all the interesting facts being thrown this way and that!

 

[yorkshire]

Next iPhone

Has there been any rumours whatsoever of the next iPhone? What do people expect to see, and when do people think it'll come out? WWDC '09?


IMO it'll just be a slight update to the 3g, I can't see Apple doing much to the camera as they don't want to be like Sony Ericsson and Nokia etc, just putting a higher MP camera on each time, as improvments like that are very unimaginative.

I do hope Apple puts a metal back on again as well.

 

[Tallest Skil]

Yeah, uh, no sooner than July. I want the metal back back, too.

 

[Hawkeye411]

Here is an existing thread related to this topic.

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/596176/

 

[Surely]

Metal back won't happen- it interferes with the antenna's reception.

I'd agree with the July guess for something new. But, maybe a storage upgrade after MWSF in January though? And maybe that 4GB model at Walmart soon- if that turns out to be true.

This is an original thread. Glad someone finally made one.