India has 700+ million (and growing) total subscribers out 1.1 billion people, but still only about 20,000 iPhones were sold in the first eight months it was available.
Hundreds of millions of poor people with cheap cell phones do not equal an equivalent number of expensive smartphone + data plan buyers.
Agree completely. I live here and I'll say it again: the size of China's domestic market is way overblown. You have to factor in purchasing power along with population, and with 2/3 of Chinese still living in poverty, a mobile phone is a necessity, not a luxury. I think part of the misperception comes from the fact that most foreigners here live in major cities, and there is a disproportionate number of wealthy Chinese, not to mention Hong Kongers and Taiwanese running around, and it's easy to think that the average Zhou will be buying an iPhone. Outside the big cities, and especially in the western provinces, the situation is considerably grimmer.
Africa has over 1 billion people, and they've leapfrogged the standard landline infrastructure in a lot of cases, and gone straight to mobile communications. So why not get all hyped about the African iPhone market? Some African countries have a higher per capita GDP than China too. The projection is equally meaningless.
EDIT: Previous poster just mentioned Africa, beat me to it!