iPhone 4 may be dropping as many as 100% more calls than iPhone 3GS

[gloss]

I think Steve was referring to the percents in comparison with the percents of each other.


Like...okay Say the 3GS dropped 30% of the calls made on it. (Yes I get it, it's a big number..). Then, in the wording I understood it to mean, the iPhone 4 would only drop less than 1% more of that. He's not saying 1% more based on that 30%...he's saying it as in then the iPhone 4 would drop 31% of the calls made on itself. Like...1% more..as in literally 1% more. Not 1% of the 30%. Cuz that would be like... 0.3?. Then the iPhone 4 could at most only drop 30.3% of it's calls.

Get it? I mean, I get what you're saying too. I'm saying it could honestly go either way how he worded it. My understanding was ^^.

Steve's wording is very clear that the iPhone 4 drops more calls than the 3GS, but 'less than one in one hundred' more - not 'less than one percent more'. Percentages are relative, but 'one in one hundred calls' is a concrete measurement.

I think, though, he was absolutely playing the ambiguity against his audience.

 

[Terdinus Asus]

one in one hundred

1 in 100 = 1/100 = .01 = 1%

What part of that would you like me to help you with?

 

[BoleCailey]

Another interesting point is that Steve Jobs gave an excuse for why he couldn't just tell us how many calls the iPhone 4 drops. He said he could only give us the difference between the 2 phones, and not the absolute numbers, because AT&T doesn't allow them to disclose statistics on dropped calls.

Well, that turns out to be a blatant lie, as you can see, AT&T freely discloses the amount of dropped calls on their network in their financial statements.

Which means they won't want they data released until the quarterly financial statements are released. Duh! You guys crack me up with your conspiracies.

 

[scaredpoet]

No it does not. You fail to distinguish something very basic: weasel words are meant to get you to believe something deceptively.

And you are trying... deceptively... to get people to think that the iPhone 4 is dropping lots of calls. 2 out of 100 isn't a lot, no matter HOW you slice it. But again, 100%... that sounds huge. It draws people in.

If I had used my "up to 100%" number with no further explanation

...kinda like what you did with the subject line in this thread?

 

[InfoSecmgr]

If your new phone is dropping two times as many calls as your old one, you wouldn't notice? I think going up from 1% to 2% is a pretty big jump.

As to points 1 and 2, my post addresses those directly. If you have a problem with my logic, then point them out, rather than pretending that I did not address them at all.

*sigh*. You need to take a stats course. Those figures are for millions of phones, not ONE phone. Sheesh.

Edit: you are probably going to tell me you are a Ph.D in mathematics, right? All hail solarein!!11!!!

 

[Terdinus Asus]

Again, assuming worst case scenarios for Steve's <1 statistic. And assuming ATT's average drop rate and on the 3GS is 1%.

iPhone 4 still gets 98% success rate on millions and millions of phone calls.

 

[solarein]

*sigh*. You need to take a stats course. Those figures are for millions of phones, not ONE phone. Sheesh.

It's common in stats to talk about one "typical" instance that represents the average of the instances.

 

[Surrix]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word

"Weasel words is an informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that something specific and meaningful has been said, when in fact only a vague or ambiguous claim has been communicated. For example, an advertisement may use a weasel phrase such as "up to 50% off on all products": this is misleading because the audience is invited to imagine many items reduced by as much as the proclaimed 50%, but the words taken literally mean only that no discount will exceed 50%, and in practice the vendor is free to not reduce any prices and still remain faithful to the wording of the advertisement.
Weasel words can imply meaning far beyond the claim actually being made. Some weasel words may also have the effect of softening the force of a potentially loaded or otherwise controversial statement through some form of understatement, for example using detensifiers such as "somewhat" or "in most respects"."


"Up to 50% on all products..."

"Dropping as many as 100% more calls..."

The definition fits your post to a tee.

The OP identified a range of assumptions and numbers to really make this a moot point. OP's offering a range is like the store in your weasel example saying "all items on sale between 20% and 50% off," which at least provides a concrete range that doesn't start from 0, and therefore still has a lot of meaning.

Because precise data is not available, use of qualifying words like "as many as" is required in this case.

 

[eron]

There's more recorded drop calls on iPhone 4 partly because more people are trying to make it drop since they know of the death grip.

The 3GS's signal drops too when you hold the bottom right. Spread that around and you will see 3GS's dropped calls increase.

 

[lgrulz]

Who hasn't bridged the gap in antennas to show people the drop in bars? 3 million iphone4 sold. To me it's amazing the only increase is 1 outa 100 with all these noobs purposely holding the phone wrong to drop a call. I've never dropped a single call on either of the iphones no matter where i'm at. To me it sounds like this forum has increased in window mobile users by 50% to hear all this whining! Atleast it isn't about battery life...

 

[Terdinus Asus]

It's common in stats to talk about one "typical" instance that represents the average of the instances.

So you believe that ATT uses one phone to measure average drop data?

You know...versus their entire network?

 

[TonyC28]

If your new phone is dropping two times as many calls as your old one, you wouldn't notice? I think going up from 1% to 2% is a pretty big jump.

Assuming the worst, which is what everyone is doing with this percentage talk, no I would not notice if my phone used to drop 1 out of 100 calls and now drops 2 out of 100 calls

 

[solarein]

And you are trying... deceptively... to get people to think that the iPhone 4 is dropping lots of calls. 2 out of 100 isn't a lot, no matter HOW you slice it. But again, 100%... that sounds huge. It draws people in.




...kinda like what you did with the subject line in this thread?

Sure, if you read nothing but the subject line you could come away with the incorrect impression. But is that deception, when the body of my message painstakingly explains every assumption I made? Hardly. It is nothing but writing effectively: draw in your readers with an interesting title so they would read your article. People who don't have the attention span to delve further than a title line yet haphazardly choose to believe what little they have read would be duped, but they are duped by their own incompetence, not by my deliberate deception.

 

[scaredpoet]

The OP identified a range of assumptions and numbers to really make this a moot point.

Not at all. At best, he put the qualifiers in to cover his rear, but the intended message is clear: 100% increase. HUGE numbers, more prominent message. It's a deviously packaged bit of propaganda. He should be a politician; he can pull the wool on people's eyes well, AND get people to act as apologists for his distorted messages.

Sure, if you read nothing but the subject line you could come away with the incorrect impression. But is that deception, when the body of my message painstakingly explains every assumption I made?

Absolutely it is. When people first come to this forum, they don't see your post. They see a subject line. And what does you subject line say?

Are you honestly expecting me to believe that you didn't have anything but the purest of motives behind the most sensationalist statistic possible in your subject line?

 

[cube]

Assuming the worst, which is what everyone is doing with this percentage talk, no I would not notice if my phone used to drop 1 out of 100 calls and now drops 2 out of 100 calls

That is not the worst. The worst would be if the phone dropped 0 out of 100 before, and now 1 out of 100.

 

[Terdinus Asus]

every assumption I made? Hardly.

There in lies the problem with your original post.

It is settled then. In the world of math and science you are just BSing for attention then, by using plays on words and numbers bound together with ideas you pulled out of thin air and backed by a smidgen of vague data from ATT.

 

[TonyC28]

That is not the worst. The worst would be if the phone dropped 0 out of 100 before, and now 1 out of 100.

Given this conversation, yes it is. Steve said "less than one more" and the point of this thread is to say that it could possibly be 100% more. So starting with zero doesn't work.

 

[solarein]

Assuming the worst, which is what everyone is doing with this percentage talk, no I would not notice if my phone used to drop 1 out of 100 calls and now drops 2 out of 100 calls

To be honest, whether you notice the increase or not is besides the point.

The point was to show that there is a statistically significant difference between the rate of dropped calls on the iPhone 4G versus other phones. By showing that there is indeed a statistically significant difference, and a fortiori by showing that this difference is very large, I hoped to debunk Steve Jobs' claim that the iPhone 4's reception problem is one that plagues all phones, the iPhone 4 only slightly more, if at all, than others. I wished to show instead that there is such a difference between the iPhone 4 and other phones that the problem is to a large extent unique to the iPhone 4.

 

[AZREOSpecialist]

Another interesting point is that Steve Jobs gave an excuse for why he couldn't just tell us how many calls the iPhone 4 drops. He said he could only give us the difference between the 2 phones, and not the absolute numbers, because AT&T doesn't allow them to disclose statistics on dropped calls.

Well, that turns out to be a blatant lie, as you can see, AT&T freely discloses the amount of dropped calls on their network in their financial statements.

Where on this slide does it show actual number of dropped calls? It shows a range of percentages and no explanation as to what those percentages are based upon. It's a well known fact that NONE of the cellular networks release call drop data. It's a big industry secret. I challenge you to find any hard call drop data numbers released by any carriers that is actually quantified - how many calls are dropped out of how many calls made.

Regarding the numbers on this slide, is that real world data or laboratory data?

 

[Chwisch87]

Actually, it suggests the opposite: the OP is twisting the data compared to real world impact. to try and make it sound more awful than it really is.

1. We don't know what that less than 1 percent means. It could be 0.1%. It could be 0.9%. Without that data, you're basically making up a figure, assuming the worst, and then trying to spread FUD with that made-up figure. And frankly, fabricating data is even worse than twisting statistics around.

Problem is, you can reasonably infer this as a "possibility" because apple didn't say what the percent increase was...

Its something you can point out with with a disclaimer.

 

[TonyC28]

I hate that I'm so interested in this thread now...

Is it possible that when Steve said he couldn't give the exact number he was referring to the exact number for the 3GS? Doesn't that AT&T page show network wide numbers and not numbers for specific phones?

 

[nebo1ss]

It would not have been difficult to make the figures more meaningful and give a better comparison between the two devices. He could have reported the calls as dropped calls per 1,000. Perhaps reporting them as calls per 100 was done to confuse the issue even more.

 

[solarein]

Not at all. At best, he put the qualifiers in to cover his rear, but the intended message is clear: 100% increase. HUGE numbers, more prominent message. It's a deviously packaged bit of propaganda. He should be a politician; he can pull the wool on people's eyes well, AND get people to act as apologists for his distorted messages.



Absolutely it is. When people first come to this forum, they don't see your post. They see a subject line. And what does you subject line say?

Are you honestly expecting me to believe that you didn't have anything but the purest of motives behind the most sensationalist statistic possible in your subject line?

The statistic in my subject is not the most sensationalist. It is the most realistic. The most realistic assumption about the 3GS drop call rate is to use the same number as the average for all phones, 1%. The most realistic assumption for <1 is to use as close to 1 as possible (if you know any calculus you'd know why using 1 is a logical choice in this case). Thus, the most realistic increase to make based on these assumptions is 100% increase. That's why I put it in my subject, because it's the best estimate I could make. I did not want it to look as if that's a concrete number based on no assumptions, so I put in "up to".

 

[AZREOSpecialist]

I posted this in another thread and thought it should be considered here as well...


Let's cut through the crap and examine the facts. Jobs admitted that the i4 drops more calls than the 3gs. At&t has come a long way in upgrading their network since the 3gs launched. I'm sure when they were comparing, they were using the aggregate number of dropped calls since the 3gs launch which had been much worse than it is now. The i4 has the luxury on launching on a more robust network yet it is STILL dropping more calls.

Given that knowledge, I can safely say that there is a considerably higher percentage of dropped calls on the i4 than Jobs is admitting to.

I see that your post is nothing more than assumptions and opinions. Can you provide any data to justify your claims?

 

[harcosparky]

Are you serious? 2X is far worse than 100%. 2X is 200%!

Wow ... are you for real?

Let's take some simple numbers and say .....

Say the 3Gs drops 2 calls.

If the 4G drops 100% more, how many does it drop?

Well 100% of 2, is 2 and 2+2=4



Now lets look at it using 2X ....

Say the 3Gs drops 2 calls.

The iPhone 4 drops 2X as many calls as the 3Gs.

Well.... think, but not too hard ( wouldn't want you to hurt yourself )

2 X 2 = 4

It's all simple math.

You might want to print this out and when you go back to school have a math teacher explain it to you.




Geez!