Considerations:
- IOS 5 and iCloud planned for this Fall, perhaps a month delay. Sounds ok.
- Come up with a "cheaper" iPhone to get the low-end market. Sounds ok.
- Spend 16 months working on a cheaper iPhone? Doesn't sound ok.
- Take the risk of disappointing a huge consumer base with a) only an internally upgraded iPhone 4 and b) having that consumer base wait too long. Doesn't sound ok.
- Giving competitors possibilities? Doesn't sound ok.
Apple must come up with something smashing i.e. a totally redesigned iPhone 5 with up-to-date technology, otherwise they'll lose it. Or us. Me anyway. And I'm tired of waiting.
Redesigned iPhone 5 or I'll stick with my 3GS. Running IOS5 as consolation.
This patently isn't true though, nor does it make much sense.
A lot of the stuff we've heard over the past 12 months suggest that Apple knows where it's areas of growth are going to be - the market it's not currently hitting.
Which market isn't it currently hitting? The low/low-mid tier. They're not going to see huge swathes of growth in the high end, because they're already saturating that market. Those of us who buy iPhones year in and year out are going to keep doing so, and for those who drop off to investigate the Android alternatives, there'll be those also going the other way, keeping the numbers up.
Analysts agree, and Tim Cook has said as much, that Apple needs to investigate the lower end of the market. I'm not talking sub £100 rubbish Nokia handsets here, but what would be deemed 'free on contract' in this country (UK) at least. Over here, I know a huge, huge number of people who won't jump on the iPhone train because as well as stumping up £35 a month, they'll have to drop £69-£100 up front for the handset.
More often than not, they go for a high end Android handset on a similar or cheaper price plan, and they don't have to stump up money for the handset. The 'free' on £25-£30 monthly contract phones over here are very, very attractive - the Samsung Galaxy S2 is available for free on sub £30 contracts over here, and it's only a few months old. The iPhone 4, nearly 16 months old, is free on only £35 and above price plans - and on most carriers, it's £40.
Large numbers of people will simply go for the S2 there because it's cheaper per month, and free. So, how will Apple combat this?
My prediction is that they certainly will release 2 phones - one, the successor to the iPhone 4, which will be roughly the same in design, but higher specced.
The other will be a cheapened iPhone 4 - dropped to 8gb, using the iPod touch non-IPS panels (still retina), and perhaps a plastic casing instead of glass. I even think there's the possibility of a 4gb model - remember, iPods are beyond market saturation - not everyone buys their phone to store loads of music, and most people buy handsets that only come with a few GB of memory, because that's enough to hold their photos, e-mails, texts etc. Most people are content carrying two devices to save money, because they're so used to it.
Price the low end phone correctly, and people will start choosing it because they've heard great things about it and will now be able to afford it, instead of choosing a competitor to save a couple of hundred pounds every year. This will do the exact opposite of 'giving competitors opportunities' - it'll force those people who've gone to competitors to consider the Apple alternative, without releasing a subpar/junk product.
Sorry - just realised this is a loooooong post. I'm quite, quite bored, and itching for some iPhone news
