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iPhone 7 The Decline...

maxsix

maxsix

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Jun 28, 2015
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Western Hemisphere
Smartphones have peaked say some, will iPhone 7 mark the slow decline in sales?

Expensive, a lookalike, same as the rather tired iPhone 6 series, this could mark a slow downward trend for Apple.

What say you?
 
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I predict the upward trend has ceased, and we've entered a period of plateau. This year could be a dip, but next year's sales will bounce right back if not increase.

Some will abandon the iPhone ship this year bc the aesthetic differences won't be significant enough to flaunt. :rolleyes:

Some will jump aboard bc their SS Sammy went up in flames. ;)

I predict a wash.
 
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willmtaylor said:
I predict the upward trend has ceased, and we've entered a period of plateau. This year could be a dip, but next year's sales will bounce right back if not increase.

Some will abandon the iPhone ship this year bc the aesthetic differences won't be significant enough to flaunt. :rolleyes:

Some will jump aboard bc their SS Sammy went up in flames. ;)

I predict a wash.
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I think it's very hard to predict.

Android enjoys a huge market share worldwide. With a massive array of models in every size and price they have a bright future.


iPhone has fiercely loyal customers who are fashion conscious. With millions of stylish cases and a vast third party accessory industry it's a self esteem builder for many.

It'll be interesting.
 
maxsix said:
I think it's very hard to predict.

Android enjoys a huge market share worldwide. With a massive array of models in every size and price they have a bright future.


iPhone has fiercely loyal customers who are fashion conscious. With millions of stylish cases and a vast third party accessory industry it's a self esteem builder for many.

It'll be interesting.
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Of course it's hard to predict, and I'm no insider or fortune teller.

But you asked "What say you?" So said I. ;)
 
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Floris said:
Why are we talking about a decline in sales when there hasn't even been a phone announced? I just don't get that, sorry.
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Other than the faithful, a huge number of iPhone buyers choose the brand with little consideration for the features most don't understand and use.

It's a testimony of Apples marketing expertise.
 
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maxsix said:
Other than the faithful, a huge number of iPhone buyers choose the brand with little consideration for the features most don't understand and use.

It's a testimony of Apples marketing expertise.
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Yeah, I agree with that. But if people have a great product that doesn't need an update, and there's yet another update to consider. Marketing or not. Updating a family with a partner and some kids, etc. It's quite expensive. The 6 and 6s were quality phones that can outlast the 7 cycle and I think the camera is happy stuff in those as well, good enough to not just spend another wallet full of cash on.

I don't think that means smartphones have peaked, nor do I think it's a sign that Apple is losing it. It means they are quality products and a lot of people can simply wait for the 7s or 8 or even 8s. I think that's why we see big redesign changes every other year or so, and not every 6 to 12 months.
 
Floris said:
I don't think that means smartphones have peaked, nor do I think it's a sign that Apple is losing it. It means they are quality products and a lot of people can simply wait for the 7s or 8 or even 8s. I think that's why we see big redesign changes every other year or so, and not every 6 to 12 months.
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I've never felt Apple is losing it, but it's disappointing that often they drag their feet, failing to do their best work. I firmly believe that the Cupertino Company is capable of doing more each year. Instead they come across as arrogant stubborn and greedy.

To the concept of a peak in the demand for smartphones, not just iPhones, I feel like the peak might be a long way off, yet if this year overall sales were down I wouldn't be surprised. No graph skyrockets straight up year after year.
 
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The original iPhone came out in 2007 so next year will mark the iPhones 10th anniversary. That being said if Apple intruced a new design this year they'd have an "S" update between their hands and no "WOW factor" for this big occasion. It makes perfect sense to "stretch the sauce" a little more with the current design which has been selling well anyway and then go BOOM! VOILÀ! NEW REVOLUTIONARY DESIGN! Happy 10th anniversary iPhone!!!

You should only upgrade if your phone won't last till then or don't mind forking the extra money on a new model next year... If not save up for sept 2017
 
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maxsix said:
I've never felt Apple is losing it, but it's disappointing that often they drag their feet, failing to do their best work. I firmly believe that the Cupertino Company is capable of doing more each year. Instead they come across as arrogant stubborn and greedy.

To the concept of a peak in the demand for smartphones, not just iPhones, I feel like the peak might be a long way off, yet if this year overall sales were down I wouldn't be surprised. No graph skyrockets straight up year after year.
Click to expand...

I still don't know why it is such a big trouble to just move files between drives, rather than only having 'copy' available. But I guess they never move files :D

Anyway, .. I see your point of course.
 
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Apple isn't loosing it. However the smart phone market has matured. Pretty much everyone has a smartphone of some kind at this point. You will see sales level off overall. With next year being a bit better than this year, but the phenomenal growth rate is over. Unless and until a remarkably new style of device is introduced.

If the yearly release cycle stopped and improvements accumulated for three to five years you would see a large sales spike. But their would be no incentive for any manufacturer to do this, as total sales over that period would suffer.

Our devices have matured from what once were phones with rudimentary ancillary functions to total computing workhorses. Phone, text device, Internet device, music player, video player, game platform, portable pocketable computer, dictating recorder, voice translator and transcription device, still camera, video camera, and all around partner and social interactive tool.

Frankly what else can you pack into a single device? Within five years or less we will see a ten fold increase in battery duration using a more refined Li Ion chemistry. And in that same time frame voice interaction/AI will take a huge leap forward, such that we will add personal assistant to the list of Protocals our hand held computing devices will achieve.

Our current devices have surpassed the original concept of a hand held communicator, al la Star Trek by a huge margin.can anyone think of any other device or process that could be added? I can't. The only thing that might be as revolutionary as the original iPhone would be to get rid of the device entirely as a hand held unit and embed it inside our bodies in some way with direct connection to our brain.
 
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lordofthereef said:
Do you base anything you just said on actual data or is this 100% conjecture?
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When you work with teenagers, you'll know what I mean. It's so bad that they rather walk around with an iPhone with a cracked screen rather than put a case on it just in case others can't tell that they own an iPhone!
Let's not forget the rants from spoiled brats after Christmas that post on YouTube about how they hate their lives and their parents don't love them cause they didn't get an iPhone!
 
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Elisha said:
Most iPhone buyers are buying it as a status symbol and not for it's capability. And yet the majority need a carrier subsidy or installment payments to afford it!
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While that might be true to one extent or another in some places, it's essentially moot these days in many other places.
 
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Well there is no question that smartphones have peaked. They are a dime a dozen now. Mfgs bring out new phones way to often. We don't really get to enjoy our phones long enough before a new model hits the stores.
 
lordofthereef said:
Do you base anything you just said on actual data or is this 100% conjecture?
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Based on product maturity curves readily available from business schools. All product sales go through phases. Early adoption, rapid growth, leveling off during maturity as unit sales become based on replacement rather than new adoption. Adding abilities, and trade off with completion will create spikes, but by and large overall phases will be seen.

Nothing new or startling in what I have stated. By opening new markets, China, India for instance Apple has attempted to continue the phenomenal sales growth it experienced in United States. The disposable income and fierce local competition from business as well as government protectionism have curtailed these efforts to some extent. Again this has been well documented, Feel free to hunt down the news articles.

As to what functions the hand held computer devices perform, I should think it rather self evident to any user. Beyond that not sure what "actual data" you refer to. Predictions are just that, data from future is not readily available, as crystal balls and time machines don't exist. So by the very nature of the topics, educated conjecture based on observations and past experiences are all Anyone can go on.

i'd be happy to entertain and discuss any alternative conjecture. Our hand held computing devices could be the one exception to past product sales. Perhaps people will continue to buy this product totally beyond need, replacing it continuously with ever increasing ferocity. Spurring growth to ever newer heights each year. Or sales could decline to a point the viability of Apple will become in question. But I strongly doubt either of these extremes will come to pass.
 
Elisha said:
Most iPhone buyers are buying it as a status symbol and not for it's capability. And yet the majority need a carrier subsidy or installment payments to afford it!
Click to expand...

Are iPhones really still status symbols? Everyone from 13 year old kids to 70 year old grandmas have them now. You can get them cheap on a contract or second hand on eBay. I think a lot of people just keep buying them out of habit/familiarity.
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Elisha said:
When you work with teenagers, you'll know what I mean. It's so bad that they rather walk around with an iPhone with a cracked screen rather than put a case on it just in case others can't tell that they own an iPhone!
Let's not forget the rants from spoiled brats after Christmas that post on YouTube about how they hate their lives and their parents don't love them cause they didn't get an iPhone!
Click to expand...

I work with teenagers too and it seems that iPhones are so common that no one really notices or cares anymore. As long as their phone has Whatsapp, Instagram, Facebook, and whatever app is popular at the moment (eg. Pokemon Go) that's all the teens I know seem to care about.
 
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The ONLY phones in the world that are status symbols are Vertus.

9WWH1a7.jpg
 
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End of the day the iPhone 7 sales will decline. Unless Apple sells them for less than normal. The average Joe will look at it and see it the same is the 6 and 6s. The average Joe wants it to look different from what they currently have or they wont see it as an upgrade. A lot of them wont care and just upgrade when they can. A guy at my work just upgraded to a 6s 2 weeks ago. I asked him why he didn't wait till the 7 but he didn't seem bothered.
 
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If your looking at a specific device - iPhone 7, then yes I think we will see a decline from the iPhone 6 launch. A few things to note, the market had massive pent up demand for a bigger screen iPhone, that demand does not exist anymore, the demand from owners is now only to upgrade to a new device, not form factor. Secondly, the market is 'spread out', in the sense of there are 3 sizes all with relevant hardware 4", 4.7", 5.5" devices, the form factors suit different people. Thirdly, people like to upgrade when things change aesthetically, why drop hundreds on a new device that looks the same, they want things to look different.

I would only personally worry if the 'total combined number' of iPhones sold started dropping significantly.

On a personal note, I have an iPhone 6 128GB, it serves me well, has Apple Pay, Touch ID, high storage, allows me to play GTA, Max Payne etc with no performance issues and it is in excellent condition. The 6s improved it with force touch, this week's 7 will improve it some more, but I'm not ready to upgrade, the cost of upgrading versus those improvements just aren't worth it..... yet. Combine those improvements over 3 years and a new aesthetic and I would bite..... so next year it is. Expect that approach to be like many others.

I predict that the end of this year and next year will all be about the Watch, I think there's a curiosity and a hidden demand, from those who want the existing one to be cheaper and those like myself who want a better device. It reminds me of when people wanted iPods but didn't want to pay high prices, they released a lower priced mini and it flew off the shelves.
 
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