Seeing as there is really no way to get this information i have no way to test your logic. I don't know exactly what the official numbers are, but MacRumors had a story I believe that said roughly 2000 store fronts would be selling the phones on launch date. Perhaps there won't be lines in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Alaska, Wyoming, Nevada, Nebraska, but non of those states contain cities like Chicago, Los Angels, New York, heck even cities as big as Detroit, Houston, or Miami, however Nevada does have Vegas.
There are currently about 58,000,000 AT&T subscribers, I'm very confident that more then 5000, and more then 100 in Nevada, will be sold in the initial 24 hours