iPhone Demand Waning?

[MacRumors]

Following news that there were 146,000 iPhone activations in the first 36 hours of sale, analysts are showing disappointment, and are changing their forecasts.

Bloomberg.com relates that analyst Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray & Co. downgraded his prediction of units sold during the first few days from 500,000 to 200,000, calling AT&T's activation results "disappointing." However, he does not change his view that the iPhone will help propel Apple's growth, and maintains an "outperform" rating on Apple's stock.

In addition, CIBC World Markets indicates their data is showing demand for the iPhone is declining, suggesting that Apple may try to spur sales by increasing marketing efforts.

"We have noticed decent inventories at stores, and thin demand at best," analyst Ittai Kidron wrote in a note. "Among the stores we visited, most visitors were not looking at the device, and only a very small subset bought it."

Apple's stock was down 5% as of this writing, sitting at $136.38.

Article Link

 

[KD7IWP]

Sure is killing my stock portfolio

 

[arn]

This just goes back to the fact that Analysts know almost nothing.

They predicted 500,000 and now are predicting 200,000 based on the activation numbers?

Where did they get 500,000? They took a wild guess it seems.

arn

 

[Peace]

This just goes back to the fact that Analysts know almost nothing.

They predicted 500,000 and now are predicting 200,000 based on the activation numbers?

Where did they get 500,000? They took a wild guess it seems.

arn

ummm.arn..

If analyst know almost nothing why is this topic here? I'ts based on "analysts"

 

[arn]

ummm.arn..

If analyst know almost nothing why is this topic here? I'ts based on "analysts"

I didn't post it. Blame longofest.

arn

 

[chr1s60]

I think everyone is freaking out too much about this "low" number. This does not represent the number of iPhones sold, only activated in the first 36 hours. Lets not forget that many people bought to sell, some bought and waited for an activation hack, and then there is the likely large number of online orders from Apple that didn't even ship til a few days into July. There is also the "2%" that had activation problems, my guess is that it was more than 2%. The number sold is probably closer to about 400,000. This number is not bad! If analyst wouldn't have went crazy and projected stupid numbers this wouldn't be a problem.

 

[Peace]

Preemptive defensive humor strike.


I really was more or less kidding around...


peace sweats it out for a while.





There's a really good but loud topic on this over here :

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/333310/

 

[Music_Producer]

I never believe anything an analyst says - they're just hired to make a bunch of statements to move stocks up or down. The analysts on bloomberg, ubs, hedge fund companies are always wrong - it's the best job in the world.

 

[stoid]

suggesting that Apple may try to spur sales by increasing marketing efforts.

Great, because there hasn't been enough iPhone news already.

 

[Dippo]

The analysts know NOTHING!
They didn't know how many iPhone sold then, and the don't know how many sold now. The AT&T activation number means almost nothing.

I can't see Apple saying that iPhone sales were a disappointment, so I think there will be good news tomorrow, but who really knows?? I sure don't.

 

[YoMamasPyjamas]

Apple needs to deliver a bangin software/firmware update that give landscape keys in email/sms, and active sync/exchange solution that is actually worth its weight, and maybe some more sweet apps that they have been tinkering with to add to the empty line on the home screen. A really good update would squash a lot of the "negatives" about the iPhone, and a lot of people on the fence would probably give in.

 

[strangelogic]

wow - finally 'real' numbers and suddenly the analysts start to sound like steve ballmer...

to me it sounds like motivation for a nice software upgrade...

 

[Jovian9]

The analysts know NOTHING!
They didn't know how many iPhone sold then, and the don't know how many sold now. The AT&T activation number means almost nothing.

I agree. I bought a 4GB iPhone the day after they released but didn't activate it for a week (when I was able to find an 8GB iPhone as well). I'm sure there are countless people who did not get these activated the first 2 days.

.....loving the phone......and so is everyone I show it to. Without saying a word and just letting them look at it I've convinced 3 other people to buy one already

 

[mickeymikey]

Apple needs to deliver a bangin software/firmware update that give landscape keys in email/sms, and active sync/exchange solution that is actually worth its weight, and maybe some more sweet apps that they have been tinkering with to add to the empty line on the home screen. A really good update would squash a lot of the "negatives" about the iPhone, and a lot of people on the fence would probably give in.

Right on...it can't be too far out. In addition to some overlooked features from v1.0, there a plenty of little bugs to squash.

 

[killerrobot]

I think everyone is freaking out too much about this "low" number. This does not represent the number of iPhones sold, only activated in the first 36 hours. Lets not forget that many people bought to sell, some bought and waited for an activation hack, and then there is the likely large number of online orders from Apple that didn't even ship til a few days into July. There is also the "2%" that had activation problems, my guess is that it was more than 2%. The number sold is probably closer to about 400,000. This number is not bad! If analyst wouldn't have went crazy and projected stupid numbers this wouldn't be a problem.

So 2% of 146,000 + 146,000= 400,000?

Even if they doubled their sells on Sunday, that only makes 300,000.

I do totally agree that analysts went crazy and projected stupid numbers.

 

[mainstreetmark]

Apple needs to deliver a bangin software/firmware update that give landscape keys in email/sms, and active sync/exchange solution that is actually worth its weight, and maybe some more sweet apps that they have been tinkering with to add to the empty line on the home screen. A really good update would squash a lot of the "negatives" about the iPhone, and a lot of people on the fence would probably give in.

...................and fix the crashing.

 

[Peace]

So 2% of 146,000 + 146,000= 400,000?

Even if they doubled their sells on Sunday, that only makes 300,000.

I do totally agree that analysts went crazy and projected stupid numbers.

Keep in mind that "2%" figure came from the company that was having the activation problem.They were trying to downplay the problem.I'd put it at more than 30%

 

[dr_lha]

Keep in mind that "2%" figure came from the company that was having the activation problem.They were trying to downplay the problem.I'd put it at more than 30%

Based on what? The number of people moaning in forums about it?

 

[chr1s60]

So 2% of 146,000 + 146,000= 400,000?

Even if they doubled their sells on Sunday, that only makes 300,000.

I do totally agree that analysts went crazy and projected stupid numbers.

That isn't what I said. I am saying that first off, the number of activation problems was likely quite a bit higher than 2%.

On top of those who had activation problems and didn't get activated in the first 36 hours there is a large number of people who ordered from Apple.com and did not have their phone yet in order to activate. Then there are the people who bought to put it on ebay and a small number of people who bought waiting for an activation hack.

146,000 reported activated + higher than 2% with activation problems + Apple.com sales + ebay sales and activation hack sales = in my opinion, probably around 400,000 sold. 400,000 is probably a high estimate from me too.

 

[Peace]

Based on what? The number of people moaning in forums about it?

Yes.

I believe MR represents the demographic most likely to buy an iPhone.And since there was a big outcry about failed activations it tells me there were more from other demographics.

 

[strangelogic]

Keep in mind that "2%" figure came from the company that was having the activation problem.They were trying to downplay the problem.I'd put it at more than 30%

Maybe the 2% is low, but I think 30% is high. IMHO - Those of us who activated in < 5 minutes are not going to be as vocal as those who had problems.

Somehow - at 30% my math says 43K people with 600 dollar paperweights... and that is just in the first 30 hours. That's almost enough to get a house subcommittee convened. They would still be cleaning up the mess today if they had that many problems.

 

[longofest]

This just goes back to the fact that Analysts know almost nothing.

They predicted 500,000 and now are predicting 200,000 based on the activation numbers?

Where did they get 500,000? They took a wild guess it seems.

ummm.arn..

If analyst know almost nothing why is this topic here? I'ts based on "analysts"

I didn't post it. Blame longofest.

Poop on you guys. At least I didn't put it on front page. Oh, then we'd all be a bundle of joy.

I thought the quote was kind of interesting... I wonder what stores the CIBC guys visited. I'm not going to slam them in the actual post, but I'll slam them here... I seriously doubt that people are going into an Apple Store and NOT checking out the iPhone. Do I have data to back me up? No, but its probably a good assumption anyways.

I think the analysts got a little over-hyped about the iPhone. Apple's forecast is for 10 million sales in calendar year 2008. 10 million phones over 365 days means Apple will have to sell just under 28,000 iPhones per day to meet/beat that goal.

Obviously, Apple/ATT won't continue to sell at a clip of 146,000 every 31 hours (it may waver a bit before either starting a trend up or down depending on long-term success), but their starting numbers aren't bad at all for making their goals.

 

[megfilmworks]

No matter what the guesses, the bottom line is for this last quarter, this quarter, and several quarters to come Apple and att will be having a very nice growth spurt

 

[killerrobot]

400,000 is probably a high estimate from me too.

Yeah, I got you. But at least it seems more reasonable than the 500-750 the damm analysts proposed. They really should be drug out into the streets and shot.

 

[strangelogic]

Obviously, Apple/ATT won't continue to sell at a clip of 146,000 every 36 hours (it may waver a bit before either starting a trend up or down depending on long-term success), but their starting numbers aren't bad at all for making their goals.

Maybe I am an idiot, but... does AT&T use GMT or ... Alaska time or some bizzare deadline for the end of their quarter? I don't get 36 hours here. 6-12 on the 29th equals 6 and then 24 on the 30th... so that is 30 hours right? hmmmm and if they did use GMT it's actually even less...