Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Market Share by 2015

joejoejoe said:
iMessage is a mess because 1) messages don't properly sync between devices 2) if I leave my iPad at home and go into a no reception zone, my messages will go to my iPad and never get to my phone, 3) sometimes I'll get a message and when I go to the conversation the message I just received will be gone, and won't appear unless I quit the Messages app or restart the phone

iCloud is a mess because there are outages all the time, my games always don't properly sync with one another across devices, photostream is buggy (photos will download automatically when I have bad reception, and then get stuck in a pixelated form and never take on their true full resolution), document sync via text edit or pages is useless, and there's a ton of DropBox esque features that would take iCloud to the next level, but those are missing (presumably because they want to fix the mess that it is before they take on new features).

Should I keep going?
Click to expand...

No i get it i think. I must not be using it in the same way. For instance i rarely see issues with iMessage, although i suppose it makes sense that syncing has issues when you leave coverage. I am quite impressed as to how i can go back and fourth between iPad and iPhone on the same conversation.

I've never seen an outage on iCloud or seen the other issues you describe, but at times i am a bit surprised on how long it takes pix to show in Photostream.
 
iphoneclassic said:
I hope it is true. The assumption Android Smart Phone market will stay stagnant at 34% through out the study period bothers me.
Click to expand...

Its worse than that. Their prediction shows every non Apple smart phone stagnating at within one percent of where they are now....every maker staying exactly static over the next three years? RUBBISH.
 
russomon said:
This is ridiculous! The chart shows "Non-smartphone" users dropping from 32% to 12%, and ios gaining this 20%. So, they're saying that everyone who moves to a smart phone over the next 4 years will choose ios??? And Android gains zero percent of these converts???
Click to expand...

This is exactly what the study is saying. All feature phone to smartphone switchers will be getting an iPhone.
 
SlCKB0Y said:
Its worse than that. Their prediction shows every non Apple smart phone stagnating at within one percent of where they are now....every maker staying exactly static over the next three years? RUBBISH.
Click to expand...

It is pretty easy to understand it. The growth of the smartphone segment is slowing greatly and apple has the highest retention rate. That means most marketshare change will come from taking customers from competitors versus bringing in new customers. With apple losing the fewest customers by a fairly big margin you can see how the shuffling would lead to stagnant growth for those companies and increased marketshare for apple.

The macrumors summary of the report pretty clearly explains all this. Not sure why so many people have trouble understanding this.

----------
smoledman said:
This is exactly what the study is saying. All feature phone to smartphone switchers will be getting an iPhone.
Click to expand...

Actually it does not say that at all. It is completely coincidental the marketshare works out like that.

What it says is between the percentage of feature phone users who buy iPhones + customers of other oses moving to iPhones - iPhone customers moving to other oses = 12 percent increase in market share for iPhones.

So apple will get some part of that percentage of feature phone users moving, say 4% of the 12%. The other 8% will come from the net migration of current smartphone users to the iPhone. The study supports this net positive migration figure for the iPhone because of apples superior customer loyalty. This means apple loses many fewer customers as a percentage, than the other platforms. Then you have all those customers who choose to switch from android and bb and windows and a significant enough number move to iPhone to fill out the growth.
 
This is the part that I don't understand about the complaints against Android: The constant tinkering. It's not like Android is FORCING you to change layouts/launchers/UI every day. What exactly is it that's forcing you to do the constantly tinkering?

The way I understood your argument was, I want simplicity, I want the OS to restrict my freedom and choices so that way I won't tinker as much. Don't you have enough self control to not do it? When I first got my Note 2, it took me a few hours to set it up my icons/widgets/layout. That was back in Nov last year and I haven't had the need to tinker with anything since then. IT JUST WORKS.. just like the Apple devices, except with a whole lot more flexibility and capabilities.

rdlink said:
This is me. I've had six different Android devices over the last nearly 5 years. I even owned an Android device before I had my first iPhone.'

Every time I use Android I remember why it is that I like my iPhone so much. I'm an IT guy, and have full geek capabilities. But I'm over the constant tinkering mode in my life. I want simplicity and stability. I think most people out there feel the same way.

Personally, I believe that the vast majority of people who choose Android do so on perceived price advantage. But when I'm spending over $2000 over two years for service, why do I care if the phone I use costs $50-$100 less? Especially when the build quality is so much less.
Click to expand...
 
marksman said:
It is pretty easy to understand it. The growth of the smartphone segment is slowing greatly and apple has the highest retention rate. That means most marketshare change will come from taking customers from competitors versus bringing in new customers. With apple losing the fewest customers by a fairly big margin you can see how the shuffling would lead to stagnant growth for those companies and increased marketshare for apple.
Click to expand...

Yea, this prediction DOES work if you ignore all previous real-world data and draw highly dubious conclusions from a survey. :confused:

Anyone with even a basic scientific background should be able to see some major flaws in this prediction.

Further to this, only a fool would try and make a three year prediction in what has proven to be the fastest developing consumer IT product class that has ever existed. These same kinds of "predictions" three years ago had Android wallowing way behind Apple in 2013.
 
Whose ass did they pull these numbers out of? There are way too many variables to be able to make an accurate prediction about future phone OS adoption.
 
A prediction that doesn't make any sense. I am not saying Android is better or not, but who can tell there won't be any competitors of both Android and Apple in 2017?

Maybe in 2017 we can give up on cell phones because we only need a device to text everyone?

Android only took 3 years to take on iOS, so would the next gen mobile OS do.
 
The article, thought the numbers are disputable, has one important point.
Once the transition from featurephones is complete and there are no newcomers, the quality of OS and ecosystem (illustrated by the retention rate) will be the key to marketshare. And that where iOS has indisputable advantages. This is like PC world, there Macs quality and OS X quality are constantly winning PC converts, though unlike smartphones, OS X began from inherited OS 9 base which was like 5% at that time (2000). Despite that, Apple managed to constantly outgrow the PC sector, in fact almost winning the profit war. In smartphones, Apple is much much stronger and even more stronger in tablets. So given the same retention or attraction rate, Apple will become even more leading platform. Whether it will outgrow Android, is another question but the point is clear.
 
I don't know how legit this article is, but if iOS 7 doesn't step up the game, I'm done with the iPhone, I feel like I'm stuck in 2009 while Android is crapping all over iOS. I just saw a review of HTC ONE and I'm like what the hell was I thinking when I bought a 4s for a fortune a few months back.
 
This article is extrapolating blackberry position based on prior sales of non BB10 devices. that is all the datat they have to work with, so they can't do anything different. but it makes that part of the prediction meaningless.

Also Tizen is an entirely speculative OS. we have no real reason to think it will be competitive in the US market for years. so makes sense to leave our. but Samsung might really support it in a big way.

----------
No5tromo said:
I don't know how legit this article is, but if iOS 7 doesn't step up the game, I'm done with the iPhone, I feel like I'm stuck in 2009 while Android is crapping all over iOS. I just saw a review of HTC ONE and I'm like what the hell was I thinking when I bought a 4s for a fortune a few months back.
Click to expand...

why did you buy a 4S when the 5 was out?
 
I'm a first time poster. I use a gs3 on a daily basis. I have only used ios for a couple of hours on a friend's phone and I pad. Honestly I don't get it i spent my first 5 minutes trying to get out of the app drawer until he explained to me that was the home page. Overall I don't think ios offers a bad user experience just a very simple one. My experience with android has been great my previous phone being a evo4g both phones were easily molded to my personal needs. So two questions one for me and one for a friend. What is it you love most about ios that's not available on other platforms? Please exclude smooth ui and seamless integration because those are both available on other operating systems. Secondly how do I label pics on an iPhone 4 my buddy has to take pics of different equipment at different sites for sale and trade but hasn't figured out how to label the pics. In other words he wants label pics by type of equipment and location in the pics name. Thanks for your help in advance. Side note I think it's rarely necessary for a person to switch os's and it's just a hassle.
 
ChrisCW11 said:
BTW I picked up a Nexus 10 and have not looked back to my iPad which hasn't been powered up for 6 months. I love my iPod Touch and still use it daily, and thought I loved my iPad, but honestly the Nexus 10 won me over surprisingly very quickly. So even to assume that Android will not convert SOME Apple users to their market in the next 5 years is ridiculous.

Epic fail in statistics gathering and analysis all around on this one.
Click to expand...

You have a regular sized (I am assuming) iPad and a Nexus 10? What about tablet did you like better? This is why I don't believe half of the stuff posted here (whether people are obvious Android fanbois or Apple nuts) that people always say "it won me over" or "I really did like it!" but never give a freakin reason. Or if they do it is "oh it has a more free ecosystem" which just sounds like a Android fanboi that is a developer for only 'droids biased opinion (maybe that developer can't get his **** on iOS because he tries to slip some garbage past Apple so he runs towards Android so he can do what he wants?).


I digress though

So even to assume that Android will not convert SOME Apple users to their market in the next 5 years is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

No one is saying that, At all. Some people need to understand that these numbers do try and take into effect Apple over to Android converts. But there are more people that switch over to Apple because they have an iPad and their contract is up and they want an iPhone. I know it sounds crazy to you and your ilk....And that there are more people switching from 'droid to :apple: that there is :apple: to 'droid. I know it doesn't sound right to you, but that doesn't make it less true.
 
applesith said:
Co-worker switched to Galaxy S3 and hates it. They like the screen but does not like how Android operates and battery life is terrible. He is switching back to Apple.

Typed S4 by mistake and all you wackos lost your crap. Calm down people.
Click to expand...

It depends on what android device you get. I have a note 2 and the battery life is the best ive had with a smart phone. With moderate use I get 2 days worth of juice without having to plug in. And even when it is low I have plenty if time to find an outlet.
 
jonnysods said:
I've been using an iPhone for around 5 years. It's great, but I'm bored. I wanted to use an OS that wasn't sandboxed, but I didn't want to use whacky flavors of android. The Nexus is a pure android experience. It's very cool, although there is loads I like about iOS.
Click to expand...

I'm curious to know how old you are. I've seen quite a few posters state how 'bored' they are with iOS and can only assume that there is an age factor involved. Is novelty that important?
 
No5tromo said:
I don't know how legit this article is, but if iOS 7 doesn't step up the game, I'm done with the iPhone, I feel like I'm stuck in 2009 while Android is crapping all over iOS. I just saw a review of HTC ONE and I'm like what the hell was I thinking when I bought a 4s for a fortune a few months back.
Click to expand...

Well, Apple doesn't do "crapping" :D
 
Personally I'm not seeing it. Two year ago an iphone was THE THING. The best phone on the market period as perceived by a majority of people. Apple has lost a lot of their momentum to samsung since then with the recent crop of android phones putting tremendous pressure on them.
 
Thread title: " iPhone _Predicted_" sums it up.

We all know no matter what the topic that using the word predicted introduces an escape route for the author that is wide open.

While depending on personal preferences and opinions, some may enjoy reading these types of "Predictions", rarely if ever do they come true. No matter who's side you are on :D

It's all quite meaningless really. Especially given the frenetic pace of R&R, manufacturing, and delivery of significant products like the ones we are seeing over the past year or so.
 
Ugg said:
I'm curious to know how old you are. I've seen quite a few posters state how 'bored' they are with iOS and can only assume that there is an age factor involved. Is novelty that important?
Click to expand...

I'm curious why would you call the functionality of a os that isn't sandboxed novelty? Also how do I change the file name of pictures taken with a iPhone 4? If you can't answer the questions don't try to guess my age or call me names.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back