iPhone Remains Effectively Sold Out in U.S.

[seagoat8888]

Did you predict 1M after a weekend and however many at this point?

Sure. Let's pretend I'm an analyst for Apple, and that I'm not an idiot (a safe hypothetical, yes?). We're releasing a product for which there's been a year of hype, both about the new one and about the quality of the old one. We've ostensibly lowered the price by half (mostly by cooking the books, but most people won't read the fine print). We're offering twice the speed, and several other feature improvements. We're releasing in multiple countries and we're advertising the hell out of the thing.

There are 300 million people in the US. This is a small fraction of who we're selling to, but even if it's just the US, don't you think that selling to .3% of the country's population in the first week is a low estimate?

Is there any cogent reason for choking down supply from day one, other than creating a frenzy? If a frenzy wasn't your goal, wouldn't you want people who showed up on day one to get your product with zero hassle, in and out in moments? I can't really see how you can overlook this evidence except out of willful ignorance. For a company that's more about PR than anything else, it seems a natural move. This creates free word-of-mouth advertising.

Who are you going to believe, the reputation of Great Leader Apple, or your own eyes?

 

[brock2621]

No joke...

 

[VernKlukas]

Gen 1 sold 1M in 73 days, gen 2 in 3 days. I think that blew away most analysts predictions.

Well, Gen 1 was US only and Gen 2 was world(ish) wide, but even with that adjustment I think it is quite possible that Apple figured 250K over the first weekend and a million would last long enough to get production really rolling.

Yours
Vern

 

[MathiasMag]

Who are you going to believe, the reputation of Great Leader Apple, or your own eyes?

I'd of course believe GLA. I think GLA has a little bit more credibility in the big leagues than my eyes do, even if you let them use my brain.

Still, is there a link to a reputable analyst stating before the release that a million phones over the first weekend was a possible scenario. It may have been a common suggestion from the analysts, but I cannot remember reading it.

Apple stated in their earnings call that they had underestimated demand and that estimating the demand for the new iPhone had been hard. I find it much easier they just got the estimate for demand wrong than that they have a large inventory somewhere in CA that they just refuse to ship even though all stores are sold out and as a result has no lines.

 

[MathiasMag]

Gen 1 only sold "officially" in one country on initial release. Gen 2 rolled out in how many different countries on day 1? I think that's an apples to oranges comparison.

True. 73/3=24. Few of those are anywhere close to the 300 million the US has. I just have a hard time believing anyone thought this rollout would be as successful as it has been. By far the biggest cellphone rollout and that for the second release of a cellphone?

I may just be wrong and this demand was obvious and SJ just decided to tell the factory to not produce at capacity or he's holding a few extra million phones in a warehouse somewhere.

 

[equilibrium17]

OK, so it wasn't my preference, but the wife decided that she *just had* to have her iPhone before she leaves on a long business trip to Seattle. So we stood in line for 4 hours at the Flagship 59th St. store, and got our phones today. It actually wasn't that bad, as we didn't get in line until early evening, and by then the temperature was pretty pleasant, and the attitude in line quite congenial. And considering that I'm upgrading from a downright ancient Sanyo, I feel a bit like how Piltdown man might feel walking into a modern-day Apple store right now. . . I'm simply amazed at the little device.

Here's the deal wrt the "Flagship" store, and iPhone availability according to those who work there. This info jives with what several friends who have also purchased 3G iPhones have said:

The flagship store has had stock pretty much since release; there was a brief exception this past Sunday (7/20) and early this morning (7/21), as they did not receive any new product on Sunday. Otherwise, they have been refreshed on a daily basis.

They do close the line to new additions at some point between 6-7pm each night, and don't sell any phones until 7am the next day. This is for two reasons (a) to give the folks working in the store a bit of a break (it's a zoo in there!), and (b) to make sure that no one waits in line, and doesn't get a phone; if it looks like they're going to run out of product, they will shut down the line to make sure they have enough for those who are already in line.

They processed us fairly quickly once we got through the line, even though we were porting over two numbers from Sprint, and putting them onto a family plan. I did come in with all the necessary account numbers, passwords, etc. ready to go. I'd guess it took about 10-12 minutes for us to actually purchase the 2 phones, and get them activated. Not bad, really. They had LOTS of people there selling and activating iPhones. Hard to tell exactly, but it seemed like dozens.

Take it for what you will. We got ours about 10:00pm and had our choice of all three models. Based on what I hear about availability elsewhere, it appears that they are prioritizing keeping the Flagship store stocked. Although I do see on the availability checker that there is (was?) some availability elsewhere around the country today, so perhaps things are starting to improve as far as general availability goes.

Anyway, it's a cool little thing and I'm glad to have it. Personally, I wouldn't have waited in line for 4 hours just to get it *now* but for the fact that the cute thing with the breasts and other attractive curves who lives with me insisted upon it. . . but now that I have it, it's worth every penny. And my curvy better half is very happy, too. Which makes me even happier.

Best of luck getting yours,

EQ17

 

[CKJ]

3G reception trouble = nonsense.

All you Americans listen the peep up, every opinion I have heard about European 3G owners have no problems with this, why?

Because we have 3G networks for years, and it's almost everywhere 100% coverage, even inside.

You Americans are just fed up with 5 year old standards, come on don't go blame it on the iPhone because companies over the great pond are now figuring out that customers want this. America should innovate more in telecom technology. Just look to Austria and even the rest of Europe. We are getting 3,6 MBPS and look at America:

You know, if the US was as small as each of the European countries we would have much higher speeds and better equipment. The cost to upgrade the entire US network is 50x of what it cost to upgrade the teeny tiny networks in European countries. Heck what do you have one 3g transmitter for all of England? Give me a frign break.

 

[Rybold]

I ordered my phone at the Philadelphia ATT store on Saturday and they predicted it will take 21 days to get it, today I got an email saying it will be delivered tomorrow (Tuesday) to the store by FedEx. I hope this stays true- maybe ATT got a new stock!?

I checked two days ago and stock was dwindling, then I checked yesterday (when this thread was started) and only one store in California had stock. I just checked now, and I see a bunch of green lights! It appears that although iPhone 3G may have been sold out yesterday, more have just arrived!
http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/availability.html

 

[bradneal]

I just ordered one from an AT&T store tonight. I think I can wait a couple weeks for a cell phone. No line, no problem. Lord, this is beyond silly.

Roger that, Hamstring. I ordered mine last Tuesday and was told up to 21 days. I'm ok with that. Actually I was hoping that they halted production to tweak a few of the problems.

 

[Ntombi]

If you want to make this a more deterministic process, then I suggest that you try the AT&T direct fulfillment route. I did and it only took 2 days to get the phone inspite of being warned that it could be up to 21 days. AT&T is filling the direct fulfillment orders before sending anything to the stores for general sale.

Did you get the white or black? I read in another thread that white seems to be coming faster.

I'm dithering about doing DF via the store. Because I'm porting my number and live in a different region, I have to buy at an AT&T store. After talking to them again tonight, it seems that they're not at all sure when they'll have stock. OTOH, the stores around me have stock again, so a friend is going to stand in line this morning.

 

[jayducharme]

Why can't the stores get their acts together???

I wonder if many Apple stores are dealing with the problem I experienced when I bought mine: The Apple rep attempted to port a number for me, but after the sale went through, the activation was rejected by the system. That iPhone then had to be taken out of stock and the rep had to get a new one. He tried again to port the number, and again it was rejected after it was supposedly activated. So that was a second iPhone that had to be taken out of stock. Another Apple rep there said that once activated -- even if the activation process goes awry -- the iPhone can no longer be used. I'm not sure if they have to ship them back to the factory or what.

So just with my one transaction, we used up three iPhones.

 

[oaxa]

Sure. Let's pretend I'm an analyst for Apple, and that I'm not an idiot (a safe hypothetical, yes?). We're releasing a product for which there's been a year of hype, both about the new one and about the quality of the old one. We've ostensibly lowered the price by half (mostly by cooking the books, but most people won't read the fine print). We're offering twice the speed, and several other feature improvements. We're releasing in multiple countries and we're advertising the hell out of the thing.

There are 300 million people in the US. This is a small fraction of who we're selling to, but even if it's just the US, don't you think that selling to .3% of the country's population in the first week is a low estimate?

Is there any cogent reason for choking down supply from day one, other than creating a frenzy? If a frenzy wasn't your goal, wouldn't you want people who showed up on day one to get your product with zero hassle, in and out in moments? I can't really see how you can overlook this evidence except out of willful ignorance. For a company that's more about PR than anything else, it seems a natural move. This creates free word-of-mouth advertising.

Who are you going to believe, the reputation of Great Leader Apple, or your own eyes?

Ummm production lead time vs time to market...
Hey they grossly underestimated the demand.
If that's stupid to you well ok
Worst mistakes have been made.

At Pasadena there was about 1.5 hour wait as of 1 pm

 

[ceuyan]

i just came back from the mall (south coast plaza in costa mesa, ca) and there was a line as long as when i got mine on july 11th. so i assume they have them in stock but still looks like a 3 hour wait.

 

[OdysseyExplorer]

Lines are silly

I stopped by my local Apple store today to try and pick up an iPhone. Even though I should have known better, I was surprised to see such a long line. I stood at the end for about 5 minutes, until an employee came out and said that the wait was 2 hours from a point about 30 feet in front of me. I laughed and left to find something better to do.

I really don't see why Apple is making it so difficult to buy an iPhone. Maybe they should have just skipped the Apple store and shipped them all to AT&T so that people who actually know what they are doing can sign you up for a plan. Not that those guys are that much smarter... but seriously, does anyone else think that it is weird that you have to go to a "3rd party" to get your phone? When I got my last cell phone, I didn't wander down to the Motorola Store. I imagine that if such a place existed, I would have to wait in line while they figured out how to navigate AT&Ts interface. Any idiot can hand me a phone in a store, I think we should leave it to the monkeys at AT&T to handle activating the phone if they insist we not do it ourselves at home.

Also, about half of the people in line were playing with their old iPhone while waiting to get the 3G. One would think that they could wait a little while. After all, you don't see people waiting in line to get the next MacBook Pro desperately wanting to shell out for that speed/performance bump that comes with any upgrade.

 

[agbot]

I checked two days ago and stock was dwindling, then I checked yesterday (when this thread was started) and only one store in California had stock. I just checked now, and I see a bunch of green lights! It appears that although iPhone 3G may have been sold out yesterday, more have just arrived!
http://www.apple.com/retail/iphone/availability.html

If you watch the availability tool during the day most CA stores get new stock every day or so, they just sell out by 9pm when everyone checks it. Saying "iPhone Remains Effectively Sold Out in U.S." isn't quite accurate... it's more like "New iPhone Shipments Effectively Sell Out Each Day They Arrive In Stores".

 

[agbot]

I really don't see why Apple is making it so difficult to buy an iPhone. Maybe they should have just skipped the Apple store and shipped them all to AT&T so that people who actually know what they are doing can sign you up for a plan. Not that those guys are that much smarter... but seriously, does anyone else think that it is weird that you have to go to a "3rd party" to get your phone? When I got my last cell phone, I didn't wander down to the Motorola Store. I imagine that if such a place existed, I would have to wait in line while they figured out how to navigate AT&Ts interface. Any idiot can hand me a phone in a store, I think we should leave it to the monkeys at AT&T to handle activating the phone if they insist we not do it ourselves at home..

I'd say from most iPhone owners/want-to-be-owners-soon, AT&T is the "third party" in the iPhone relationship. I picked up 2 iPhones this past Saturday and it took the guy at the Apple Store less than 10 minutes to run through the complete transaction, and we only waited 10-15 minutes in line before that. Compared with the complete ineptitude I've faced at AT&T stores, screw that. I'd be a freakin' nightmare if everything had to be done in-store at AT&T.

 

[yehudah72]

there's no shortage where i live!!!

i live in san diego, ca. and the apple store down the street from me (UTC Mall) has iPhones every day. i got mine the Sunday when it first launch and i only waited in line for 40 minutes.

 

[OdysseyExplorer]

I'd say from most iPhone owners/want-to-be-owners-soon, AT&T is the "third party" in the iPhone relationship. I picked up 2 iPhones this past Saturday and it took the guy at the Apple Store less than 10 minutes to run through the complete transaction, and we only waited 10-15 minutes in line before that. Compared with the complete ineptitude I've faced at AT&T stores, screw that. I'd be a freakin' nightmare if everything had to be done in-store at AT&T.

Wow, if the guys at the Apple Store really can get you all set up in less than 10 minutes, then that is clearly the way to go! I guess people are just too anxious to get their new phones.

 

[DiamondMac]

Shortages in New Orleans are becoming less and less common as more time passes by

Several stores around New Orleans are sold out but several others have plenty and as one girl told me a few days ago, there was no line at one store that apparently had a "lot" according to a sales rep

 

[Rybold]

about half of the people in line were playing with their old iPhone while waiting to get the 3G. One would think that they could wait a little while.

No Kidding!!! They already have an iPhone and the 2.0 firmware! They already have 98% of the phone! I can see someone who doesn't have one yet standing in line for 4 hours but not someone that already has an iPhone. No wonder so many new users are giving up on Apple and going back home to their Blackberries! Learn to share!

YOU ALREADY HAVE ONE - GIVE SOMEONE ELSE A TURN!!!

(NOTE: my disliking does not apply to those who waited on day one - it applies to those who are waiting NOW that everyone knows there is short supply)
.

 

[DJDarrenDC]

Here is a story for you

I used the trick that was mentioned here and changed the time on my computer. The Penaton City Mall store said sold out but when I change the time, they had stock. I called the store and asked about availability and wait time. They had no white ones but had the other two and it was a two hour wait. I got in line at 4:25. They had an interesting way of dealing with customers. Each Apple employee would wait on a customer. If they could not get out of the store to take someone from the line before a "regular" customer approached them, they would help them. There was no one dedicated to Iphone activation. Most people waited 20 minutes from the first position to be called into the store. After 3.5 hours a guys comes out and says they have no 16G phone left. They had already pre-approved me by checking my ATT account and when I was walking back with the same guy I asked if there were enough phones to go around, he said, yes. I asked for 16G as well as 8G? He looked at me and looked my place in line and said that I would definitely have a choice in phones (not the white one). That happened about 90 minutes into my wait. When the guy annouces no 16s the guy behind me says that is not what you told me (I agreed) and he said sorry you chose to wait in line, sorry you can check on line....blah blah. So I asked to speak with the manager who initially would not come out. I then said either he comes out or we all go in, his choice. He came out. First he basically said too bad. Then he said he would give us all probably a good 50 people head of the line passes for any day we chose to come in to the store. Then out of no where he says that his guy found two boxes of 16Gs in the back and that most of the people who were waiting for a 16 would get one. I was number 4 in line when this occured. 5 hours after arriving I walked out with my phone. Happy with the phone but the buying process was a nightmare. I truly thought there was going to be a riot. People were POed big time. What a mess. You would think that a company as savy as Apple could have come up with a better way to sell the phone.

 

[illitrate23]

effectively sold out in the UK now too - this morning there were only 3 shops in Ireland with stock and one in Leicester.

but apparently there's a big shipment due on Friday

 

[Broody]

How to get an iphone quickly.

If you are looking to get your hands on an iphone and are in the US the quickest way is to go to an AT&T store and order the white 16 gig. This is apparently the least popular one and these orders are being filled very quickly. I ordered 2 iphones this past monday, and I have the white one in my hands currently. The black one we ordered for my fiance is qouted at another 10-15 days before it will arrive. White appears to be the way to go. Thought I would share!

 

[supmango]

So far I haven't seen anyone addressing the obvious issue. "Iphone sold out...," what could the reasons be?

1. "They are concerned that [X] feature isn't ready!" No. They would have simply pushed back the release date. It's better to slightly tick off everyone over a changed release date than to release it to a small fraction of the interested consumers who can then talk about how [X] feature sucks.

2. "They didn't make enough to meet demand!" No. This is not an entirely new product, it's a revision of a somewhat successful one. They had a full year to get production into gear and gauge demand for this thing. And from the first day, they were constricting supply.

Struggle for a while and you might arrive at:

3. "They are intentionally constricting supply to create a frenzied buying atmosphere." Yup. It's a gamble, but Apple is wagering that its loyal fans trust so deeply in their benevolence that this notion wouldn't even occur to you.

Companies have done this with many products in the past (Volkswagon beetle, for example), and it tends to encourage psychological distortion over the product's value -- "I waited in line for 7 hours for this thing and was the first to get it, look how awesome it is!," etc. Be careful when a company is making you jump through hoops to get its product, there's probably a reason for it that's less than admirable.

As soon as Apple behaves more like they want to sell to me and less like Machiavelli / Rove / , I'll be happy to buy one. For now, my life is complete without it.

I am forced to agree with this poster (unfortunately). As someone who was looking forward to the launch of the 3G iPhone, I was ready to buy one on day one. But now, I am questioning why the shortage exists and what reason Apple might have for creating this frenzy. Personally, I think it is because some new product is releasing this fall (as rumors have indicated) and Apple wants to make sure it sells enough iPhones this summer to meet its projected quota. I am waiting to get an iPhone at least until after Macworld 09' (really for more than one reason). Hopefully by then ATT will get its act together and have all of these network issues figured out as well (but I doubt it). I would suggest everyone else out there wait as well, but I know most people won't wait because this kind of behavior is just too hardwired for most of us to resist (which is why companies do it). Nintendo did it with the Wii, VW did it with the Beetle, and I am sure others have done it as well (although not quite as successfully). If it is intentional, it is ethically questionable because creating this kind of frenzy can lead to all kinds of unpredictable behavior, as we have already seen with the Wii. Granted, the frenzy over the iPhone has not been near as intense as it was over the Wii, but... who knows. Eventually Apple might take it to the next level as well.

 

[kdarling]

Do I misremember that a couple of months ago, parts analysts were saying that production of the new 3G model would be stunted by lack of materials?

Seemed to me that it was always probable that not enough would be available, because of those forecasts.

Also don't forget that Apple counts an iPhone sold the moment it leaves China on the way to a carrier's store, so more could be on a boat even now.