I think it would make some noise to release 3G world wide. All at once.
Hello Asia.
Hello Europe.
Hello US.
Hello everybody!
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iPhone Shortage Points to New Model?
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I think it would make some noise to release 3G world wide. All at once.
Hello Asia.
Hello Europe.
Hello US.
Hello everybody!
Emphasis mine.
I think this number is a little far-fetched, quite frankly. Apple does not need (and likely cannot handle the influx of feedback from) over 20K individual enterprises testing iPhone 2.0.
In addition, I would think that if there were really 20K+ enterprises testing iPhone 2.0, we would be seeing a lot more 'leaking' (against the NDA, of course).
That's my thinking - it would keep up the Apple image. The risk of someone opening up the phone and seeing the 3G chip would be small at this point - all the people who like to do that sort of thing did it when the device first came out. Who strips down a product towards the end of its life?
Spot on - EDGE is old technology and 3G is pretty common now. I've had a Palm with 3G in it for over a year already and there are a dozen 3G phones on offer on my local telco's plans.
I think Apple will drop the EDGE phone altogether and only offer 3G phones - except maybe in the US. Most countries other than the US are very advanced with their 3G networks and in those countries no-one would by an EDGE device.
If you want a cheap phone for calls only, you'll buy a LG or Nokia prepaid and make calls on it. If you want an iPhone with all the rich internet features you're going to want 3G. If they launched the EDGE phone in my country (Australia) right now it wouldn't sell that well - everyone would be asking why they should go backwards to EDGE and be stuck on it for the duration of their 2 year plan when we have national 3G coverage.
If Apple are going to make their iPhone targets for 2008 then they need to get their 3G iPhone out into those other countries that wouldn't consider anything less. The EDGE iPhone will be like the original iPod click-wheel - it will very soon become a memory.
You mean like my post at 3:34pm today right above yours where I specifically say "shortages in the US but not overseas"?
There she blows, Captain.
BS, AT&T has had 3G for some time now, just confined to major metro areas.
Sprint and verizon have had the EV-DO CDMA 3G technology for some time now, and have better 3G coverage than AT&T (Sprint more so)
Sprint and verizon have had the EV-DO CDMA 3G technology for some time now, and have better 3G coverage than AT&T (Sprint more so)
Bluetooth 2.1 NFC features:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetooth#Bluetooth_2.1
Are sure to be a cool new iPhone and Mac feature -- many possibilities...
"NFC cooperation: automatic creation of secure Bluetooth connections when NFC radio interface is also available. For example, a headset should be paired with a Bluetooth 2.1 phone including NFC just by bringing the two devices close to each other (a few centimeters). Another example is automatic uploading of photos from a mobile phone or camera to a digital picture frame just by bringing the phone or camera close to the fram"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetooth#Bluetooth_2.1
Are sure to be a cool new iPhone and Mac feature -- many possibilities...
"NFC cooperation: automatic creation of secure Bluetooth connections when NFC radio interface is also available. For example, a headset should be paired with a Bluetooth 2.1 phone including NFC just by bringing the two devices close to each other (a few centimeters). Another example is automatic uploading of photos from a mobile phone or camera to a digital picture frame just by bringing the phone or camera close to the fram"
So guys, forgive my ignorance here... When you talk about 3G, are you talking about what we know as "traditional" 3G, or are you actually talking about HSDPA (a.k.a. 3.5G)? Maybe that's not a widely used technology in the US, but it is growing here in the UK, and if a new version iPhone is released at WWDC, I wouldn't buy without the high speed data capabilities. I've had phones here with 3G for quite a few years now, and it's old news.
I think new iPhone gonna be on June, why? Reason is simple ;p 3G/UMTS needs software to support it, also there properly gonna be some hardware chip changes that needs new drivers, 1.1.4 of iPhone OS don't have it. So we all know that next public release of iPhone OS gonna be 2.0... and its on June ;p. Also why they number it 2.0, theres no any major core changes, only app debugging was added, so only good reason is new iPhone model release.
Right -- and don't forget an always on GPS, so big brother ALWAYS knows where you are... Any privacy invading features like GPS should be switchable OFF at the customer's whim.
3G or better:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Mobile_Telecommunications_System
It will likely be UMTS/HSPA 3/3.5G
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Mobile_Telecommunications_System
It will likely be UMTS/HSPA 3/3.5G
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A102 Safari/419.3)
Other than the MacBook Pro.
hlynurge said:
Other than the MacBook Pro.
Best response to the shortage was....
posted in a readers (Tantrum) response in todays NY Times Bits Blog:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/the-iphone-shortage/
..as posted by Tantrum...
Wall Street analysts like Gene Munster and Toni Sacconaghi continuously discount the role of international demand in iPhone sales. They do this primarily because they have a very America-centric view of the world in which this 5% tail wags the dog. Not in cell phones.
This is the issue. The customer-satisfaction numbers you see for iPhone in the US are no different internationally, in some cases they are much higher because the price ($399 and $499 is seen as perfectly reasonable, particularly in emerging markets used to paying higher premiums on US prices for BlackBerry and high-end Nokia phones).
Demand for iPhones outside the United States, particularly in emerging markets, is out of control and has reached the point where it has started to impact Apples normalized supply chain projections. Its okay to have a delta of, say, 100,000 units or so per year between actual and forecast. International demand is driving that delta upwards of 1 million. Thats a whole different ball game for component sourcing, quality control and production ramp-up and some things are starting to come unstuck, even for a finely managed company like Apple.
Whats driving this?
1. Free, out-of the box -ready, GUI-based network unlock solutions like Ziphone and iLiberty. Confidence in these unlock systems has grown significantly over time as technical expertise required to use them has fallen.
2. A large, very organized procurement mechanism for iPhones, particularly into Russia, Eastern Europe, India and China. There are people who go from store to store buying iPhones and aggregating them for export to resellers overseas.
3. Proliferation of Wi-Fi penetration and the recognition that in GSM countries, iPhone works simply and well enough. Wi-Fi hotspot usage is growing significantly around the world and the iPhones superior web browser is taking full advantage to maximize customer experience. Its the right product at the right time for the macro-trend.
4. The iPhone is relatively cheap to emerging market customers used to paying $500 for a BlackBerry and a cheap US Dollar makes it an even better deal. For example in Russia, at $499, a16GB iPhone translates to around 12,000 Rubles. An 8GB Nokia N95 costs $815 or 20,000 Rubles. The value-for-money perception with iPhone is absolutely huge.
5. Zero or minimal compatibility issues on GSM Networks. I have used my iPhone with SIM cards from 32 different networks in Europe and developing countries. It works seamlessly. The iPhone is a quad-band GSM phone, meaning that it supports all four major GSM frequency bands, 850 and 1900 MHz bands which are used in the Americas, and 900 / 1800 MHz bands used in most other parts of the world, making it compatible with all major GSM networks worldwide. 2 billion people around the world use GSM phones.
To give you an idea of international demand; There are Nigerians shipping more than 500 phones a week from New York to Lagos and Nigeria is a third world country. The EDGE internet works perfectly, albeit just as slow, there and data is very, very cheap at $5 per 100 MB of usage.
Data-driven analysts like Munster and Sacconaghi get misled by the laziness of long-distance US-chauvinist analysis into making market projections based on perfunctory GDP per capita statistics and population living on less than dollar per day figures. They look at the wrong data because they think the world works in the same way everywhere. This weak analysis disregards latent middle and upper income demand in developing countries. Income distribution in many emerging markets is extremely lopsided.
If you define a potential user as someone who can afford (or is used to) paying twice as much for an iPhone and double what an AT&T subscriber pays per month, there are at least 7 million potential iPhone users in Nigeria, 9 Million in South Africa, 80 Million in India, 25 Million in Russia, 25 Million in Brazil, 8 Million in Indonesia and 100 Million in China. Not all of them will be users but just 5% of this number is way more than 10 million. Considering mobile phones are some of the most universally adopted products on the planet, a good GSM phone reaches Iran and Iraq much faster than people on Wall Street can ever imagine. I predict iPhones will be available to elites in Cuba (which has both GSM and TDMA) within the next 30 days.
From research Im conducting. we have conservative numbers of grey market as follows:
Russia 2000-4000 phones/week
China 4000 -6000 phones/ week
Demand from Western Europe is substantially slower but still significant, averaging anything from 2000 -3000 units/week from New York and other big cities with international airports. Now, not all the phones shipped from New York are bought in NYC but the export pattern is clear and very strong.
I have completely ignored the cash-flush Middle East where Dubai has always been a world-leading port in grey market clearing and forwarding for consumer electronics.
Conservatively speaking, something is sucking 15,000-20,000 iPhones/week out of the United States. If this phenomenon is coinciding with steadily growing adoption among US customers, suddenly the slack Apple had is drying up.
Many of the millions of visitors coming to the United States every month are going back with a packed iPhone in their luggage. Its one of the things people are expected to buy when they come.
Foreign nationals are not very likely to buy iPhones at an AT&T store because the requirements are inconsistent (some stores requiring SSNs, existing phone numbers and/ or activation), queues are long (non-starter for people with a limited window to get back to the airport), lack of other Apple products (iPods etc) and accessories and simply, AT&T stores are not landmarks.
Finally, the reason why used iPhones will begin to show up on eBay and other consumer-to-consumer sites in Western Europe is because individuals who speculatively buy an iPhone to resell are up against organized unofficial suppliers and 3G is a big deal there. In emerging markets, youre much more likely to buy a phone from an expert hacker supplier if you worry about fixes and other things. And yes, the parallel market is showing budding signs of getting sophisticated at providing some of the support Apple wont provide.
Oh well, maybe its just version 2.0 coming out soon.
I think not.
Bottom line: Apple has produced a product that is promising but short of the mark in 3G Western Europe, reasonably good for the US but a smash hit in emerging markets.
Posted by Tantrum
posted in a readers (Tantrum) response in todays NY Times Bits Blog:
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/the-iphone-shortage/
..as posted by Tantrum...
Wall Street analysts like Gene Munster and Toni Sacconaghi continuously discount the role of international demand in iPhone sales. They do this primarily because they have a very America-centric view of the world in which this 5% tail wags the dog. Not in cell phones.
This is the issue. The customer-satisfaction numbers you see for iPhone in the US are no different internationally, in some cases they are much higher because the price ($399 and $499 is seen as perfectly reasonable, particularly in emerging markets used to paying higher premiums on US prices for BlackBerry and high-end Nokia phones).
Demand for iPhones outside the United States, particularly in emerging markets, is out of control and has reached the point where it has started to impact Apples normalized supply chain projections. Its okay to have a delta of, say, 100,000 units or so per year between actual and forecast. International demand is driving that delta upwards of 1 million. Thats a whole different ball game for component sourcing, quality control and production ramp-up and some things are starting to come unstuck, even for a finely managed company like Apple.
Whats driving this?
1. Free, out-of the box -ready, GUI-based network unlock solutions like Ziphone and iLiberty. Confidence in these unlock systems has grown significantly over time as technical expertise required to use them has fallen.
2. A large, very organized procurement mechanism for iPhones, particularly into Russia, Eastern Europe, India and China. There are people who go from store to store buying iPhones and aggregating them for export to resellers overseas.
3. Proliferation of Wi-Fi penetration and the recognition that in GSM countries, iPhone works simply and well enough. Wi-Fi hotspot usage is growing significantly around the world and the iPhones superior web browser is taking full advantage to maximize customer experience. Its the right product at the right time for the macro-trend.
4. The iPhone is relatively cheap to emerging market customers used to paying $500 for a BlackBerry and a cheap US Dollar makes it an even better deal. For example in Russia, at $499, a16GB iPhone translates to around 12,000 Rubles. An 8GB Nokia N95 costs $815 or 20,000 Rubles. The value-for-money perception with iPhone is absolutely huge.
5. Zero or minimal compatibility issues on GSM Networks. I have used my iPhone with SIM cards from 32 different networks in Europe and developing countries. It works seamlessly. The iPhone is a quad-band GSM phone, meaning that it supports all four major GSM frequency bands, 850 and 1900 MHz bands which are used in the Americas, and 900 / 1800 MHz bands used in most other parts of the world, making it compatible with all major GSM networks worldwide. 2 billion people around the world use GSM phones.
To give you an idea of international demand; There are Nigerians shipping more than 500 phones a week from New York to Lagos and Nigeria is a third world country. The EDGE internet works perfectly, albeit just as slow, there and data is very, very cheap at $5 per 100 MB of usage.
Data-driven analysts like Munster and Sacconaghi get misled by the laziness of long-distance US-chauvinist analysis into making market projections based on perfunctory GDP per capita statistics and population living on less than dollar per day figures. They look at the wrong data because they think the world works in the same way everywhere. This weak analysis disregards latent middle and upper income demand in developing countries. Income distribution in many emerging markets is extremely lopsided.
If you define a potential user as someone who can afford (or is used to) paying twice as much for an iPhone and double what an AT&T subscriber pays per month, there are at least 7 million potential iPhone users in Nigeria, 9 Million in South Africa, 80 Million in India, 25 Million in Russia, 25 Million in Brazil, 8 Million in Indonesia and 100 Million in China. Not all of them will be users but just 5% of this number is way more than 10 million. Considering mobile phones are some of the most universally adopted products on the planet, a good GSM phone reaches Iran and Iraq much faster than people on Wall Street can ever imagine. I predict iPhones will be available to elites in Cuba (which has both GSM and TDMA) within the next 30 days.
From research Im conducting. we have conservative numbers of grey market as follows:
Russia 2000-4000 phones/week
China 4000 -6000 phones/ week
Demand from Western Europe is substantially slower but still significant, averaging anything from 2000 -3000 units/week from New York and other big cities with international airports. Now, not all the phones shipped from New York are bought in NYC but the export pattern is clear and very strong.
I have completely ignored the cash-flush Middle East where Dubai has always been a world-leading port in grey market clearing and forwarding for consumer electronics.
Conservatively speaking, something is sucking 15,000-20,000 iPhones/week out of the United States. If this phenomenon is coinciding with steadily growing adoption among US customers, suddenly the slack Apple had is drying up.
Many of the millions of visitors coming to the United States every month are going back with a packed iPhone in their luggage. Its one of the things people are expected to buy when they come.
Foreign nationals are not very likely to buy iPhones at an AT&T store because the requirements are inconsistent (some stores requiring SSNs, existing phone numbers and/ or activation), queues are long (non-starter for people with a limited window to get back to the airport), lack of other Apple products (iPods etc) and accessories and simply, AT&T stores are not landmarks.
Finally, the reason why used iPhones will begin to show up on eBay and other consumer-to-consumer sites in Western Europe is because individuals who speculatively buy an iPhone to resell are up against organized unofficial suppliers and 3G is a big deal there. In emerging markets, youre much more likely to buy a phone from an expert hacker supplier if you worry about fixes and other things. And yes, the parallel market is showing budding signs of getting sophisticated at providing some of the support Apple wont provide.
Oh well, maybe its just version 2.0 coming out soon.
I think not.
Bottom line: Apple has produced a product that is promising but short of the mark in 3G Western Europe, reasonably good for the US but a smash hit in emerging markets.
Posted by Tantrum
Too far away...
WiMax is just bored, and have only experimental coverage ;p and 802.11n is a big battery eater right now (and it still in Draft stage?). Besides if the implement them to iPhone now, Apple will lose the good reason for customers to buy future NextGen iPhones ;]
cheap iphone
I concur. My US-bought iPhone is relatively cheap compared to other offerings in Iceland. Ranks somewhere around a "mid-range" phone in price. No brainer purchase for me...
I concur. My US-bought iPhone is relatively cheap compared to other offerings in Iceland. Ranks somewhere around a "mid-range" phone in price. No brainer purchase for me...
Oh come on. Reading the MacGuide on Gene Munster, it is evident that all his predictions are pure guesswork. I could have come up with any of that stuff having read MacRumors and a few of the other sites and I love the way he uses probabilities (like the British weather people do when talking about chance of rain) so that he can cover his back. That way he can never be wrong.
When I read the iPhone Blog entry that said US iPhone shortage, along with the perrsistent rumours of a new 3G iPhone probably in June, I put two and two together too. All the rumour mills point to there being a bloody good chance of something coming out in the next few months.
This guy is not telling us anything new so I'm not going to give him any credit.
When I read the iPhone Blog entry that said US iPhone shortage, along with the perrsistent rumours of a new 3G iPhone probably in June, I put two and two together too. All the rumour mills point to there being a bloody good chance of something coming out in the next few months.
This guy is not telling us anything new so I'm not going to give him any credit.
It would be nice but 3.5G coverage is extremely poor. There are many major UK cities missing coverage entirely. In a few years time it might be a good connection to strive for but as it stands I can't imagine Apple spending more for connectivity chips with such limited coverage.
My only criticism for the iPhone is that it's entirely developed for the US market which just happens to be one of the more backward networks. If Apple built it for Korea or somewhere we'd all be flying our iPhones around whilst downloading HD films and listening to days worth of music compressed into an audio singularity through mind-speakers. And cleaning dishes on the integrated kitchen sink.
Well, maybe you are right. The number is a little far fetched first.
OTOH I don't have a clue, but how many ADC members are there out there? I mean those, who get the OS X seeds for testing purposes? I don't have a clue, if those goes up in the 10K region, so maybe someone could help me out here.
We are talking about very differing enterprise settings, each of them a compromise between IT and custom software engineering. So why not test in a bunch of different evironments?
We are talking about a relatively open platform to develop for, so imagine a software company like, say, SAP, working with their clients to bring them the ultimate experience on their iPhone. Just imagine the clerk in your real world bookstore popping out an iPhone to check, if the book is in stock or when it is available.
shortage
tantrum and drkstr have it right, almost. I believe it is true that huge numbers of iphones are being exported by "pirates" and being taken across the globe now that it can be safely unlocked. But, that alone is insufficient to cause a shortage. After all, the shortage is only at brick-and-mortar stores in the US, where the iphone is cheapest. For a while, Apple was probably happy selling these phones to any willing buyer.
Now, I think Apple is looking at the huge ATT subscription gap and it has dawned on them just how badly these exports are undermining their business model and prospects for relations with future service providers. They have actually decided it is better to sell fewer phones than allow all these cheap, unlocked phones to flood the foreign markets.
So, Apple has decided to restrict supplies of iphones to its retail outlets. You can still buy them online because Apple KNOWS WHO AND WHERE YOU ARE.
But, you can't fly in to NYC and scoop up 20 or 30 to unlock and export. Smart, hey? Just a theory.
tantrum and drkstr have it right, almost. I believe it is true that huge numbers of iphones are being exported by "pirates" and being taken across the globe now that it can be safely unlocked. But, that alone is insufficient to cause a shortage. After all, the shortage is only at brick-and-mortar stores in the US, where the iphone is cheapest. For a while, Apple was probably happy selling these phones to any willing buyer.
Now, I think Apple is looking at the huge ATT subscription gap and it has dawned on them just how badly these exports are undermining their business model and prospects for relations with future service providers. They have actually decided it is better to sell fewer phones than allow all these cheap, unlocked phones to flood the foreign markets.
So, Apple has decided to restrict supplies of iphones to its retail outlets. You can still buy them online because Apple KNOWS WHO AND WHERE YOU ARE.
But, you can't fly in to NYC and scoop up 20 or 30 to unlock and export. Smart, hey? Just a theory.