iPhone Shortage Points to New Model?

[nickXedge]

This is pure speculation, but.....

What if the new 3G hardware design is ready to roll? Maybe the small delay at the moment is the time it takes to change the production lines over to incorporate the 3G antenna & transmission circuitry.

They could quietly put the 3G stuff in the existing model, keep selling it as an EDGE phone, with the chipset permanently switched down to EDGE by software control (most 3G chipsets will run EDGE - my Palm Treo defaults to it if no 3G signal can be found) and when they announce the big official 3G launch at WWDC (to coincide with the iPhone 2.0 software) Steve can pull one of his big surprises - "Oh, and by the way - every iPhone sold since April is ready for 3G with just a software update."

Steve does like to surprise people. Just a thought.

Aside from the one guy who already said that any idiot could open up a new iPhone and see the chipset, I have another objection to this thought.

They wouldn't release a 3G iPhone under the radar, sell it at normal price, and then give out a software upgrade later to activate it. They would lose a ton of money that way. Even if they pulled the X-amount of dollars for the software upgrade, it would be a terrible marketing technique. That would be like a Christmas miracle and it's just not going to happen, because Santa isn't real.

Sorry bud, 3G for free... not happening.

 

[SirOmega]

I'm still voting for September release. What I think is likely is price cuts in the short term - the Touch and iPhone get cut by $100 and the 8GB Touch and iPhone both disappear. So we'll see a 16GB Touch for $300 and a 16GB iPhone for $400. Apple wants to have plenty of these devices for developers to sell their apps onto come June.

 

[gkarris]

I'm still voting for September release. What I think is likely is price cuts in the short term - the Touch and iPhone get cut by $100 and the 8GB Touch and iPhone both disappear. So we'll see a 16GB Touch for $300 and a 16GB iPhone for $400. Apple wants to have plenty of these devices for developers to sell their apps onto come June.

Makes sense.

Why was AT&T selling the refurbs for only $249?

 

[SpinThis!]

I'm not sure I give him credit for those predictions. Munster tends to echo the rumor-mill... Though he is alone in his 80% that this represents a new iPhone.

The rumor mill tends to jump the gun and be hit or miss where Munster is a little more conservative—his track record is pretty good as of late.

You have to wonder if Munster has an official source inside Apple that's confirming or denying what the rumor mill has already put out... who needs PR when you have Munster and the Apple hype machine to help you? This sounds like typical Apple lately... leak just enough to produce a little hype, have someone from the press report on it that has a high enough probability to be true, then announce shortly thereafter.

 

[Apple Ink]

This is weird. Some of my thoughts...

Possibilities and contradictions:

1. We see a capacity bump or a price drop. But why would then there be a shortage of 16GB version in case of a price drop. And why would Apple bump capacities only after 1 month!

2. We find 3G chip in the same ol' iPhone. Apple has never completely overhauled an ipod without changing the design.

A completely new redesigned iPhone is unlikely to appear soon as Apple has always showcased a new design from iPod to iMacs in an event! The nearest is WWDC, still 2 months away!

 

[Chapel Hill]

Will the new iPhone get a fingerprint sensor?

My life will be on that phone and I want some biometric protection in case it is stolen or lost.

 

[EagerDragon]

Apple doesn't need specific FCC approval if the 3G chip is already approved by the manufacturer (ie. Qualcomm already has it FCC approved for use in the USA.)

How sure are you about this?

Was the radio chip on the previous (current) model not FCC approved and that is why Apple had to certify the entire phone?

 

[0098386]

I'm thinking there will be a minor update in June. 32gb option (prices the same but the 32 to cost more) and 3G.
2.5G iPhones drop in price to shift them.
3G is needed for Japan and other countries, and since 3G chips now use a lot less power since the original iPhones launch theres nothing telling Apple to hold off. Apart from some US users who claim 3G is nothing (it's huge in Europe and Asia).

I doubt we're going to see such a drastic change so early.

 

[EagerDragon]

They wouldn't release a 3G iPhone under the radar, sell it at normal price, and then give out a software upgrade later to activate it. They would lose a ton of money that way.

How would they loose money?

Also all software upgrades to the iPhone are covered by the 24 month contract, users do not have to pay. Only iTouch owners have to pay as they do not have a monthly contract.

Outside of someone discovering the 3G inside, I think that releasing it hidden, would be brilliant as if found out they can say that they did it to save customers money so they did not had to upgrade 3 months later when the 3G network and new update were ready. It would show a lot of good will and respect for its customers.

Unlike you I do not believe that the 3G radio has to increase the price of the iPhone. New 3G iphones would sell at the normal price and the current (previous) model would be sold at a discount.

Not saying you are wrong, just saying I am of a different opinion.

Makes sense.

Why was AT&T selling the refurbs for only $249?

Now that is a damn good point .... AT&T discounts the phone to clear out inventory, now we have a USA shortage, this does sounds like a new model is coming or is a major screwup in supply demand which Apple is not well known to do this late in the life of a product.

 

[Apple Ink]

Was the radio chip on the previous (current) model not FCC approved and that is why Apple had to certify the entire phone?

Im guessing that you need an FCC approval for a new product even if the chip is certified because the signal strength and the radiation energy of he antennae used by you in the phone must be under acceptable limits!

So in the end, it is not the signal FCC checks for in a finished product but the signal strenght and radiation energy.

In any case, if Apple opts for a new design, it'll have to get the phone through FCC First!

That's my guess!

 

[EagerDragon]

Im guessing that you need an FCC approval for a new product even if the chip is certified because the signal strength and the radiation energy of he antennae used by you in the phone must be under acceptable limits!

So in the end, it is not the signal FCC checks for in a finished product but the signal strenght and radiation energy.

In any case, if Apple opts for a new design, it'll have to get the phone through FCC First!

That's my guess!

That is where I was leading, however ..... given that the amount of testing is reduced, they can probably get the approval in 1 to 2 months and for competitive reasons get FCC to maintain secrecy. Maybe they already got the approval and been manufacturing for a while. (Fingers crossed).

 

[RqThrottle]

Wow, you surely must know something. So much authority on this post!

I (like you) have absolutely no clue what the changes, if any, will be. I expect 3G, and maybe slightly better battery life. Anything else would be a surprise.

iPhone2 will definitely LOOK different. Every new iteration of the ipods has seen big changes in design. No way they're rolling out a massively upgraded new device (with all the fanfare) in the same form factor.
I predict/hope:
1.THINNER (ala ipod touch).
2.ever so slightly WIDER screen
3.Maybe change up the silver/black COLOR duo?
4. Hopefully fix the headphone jack and tweak the SIM-card slot system.

Jonathan Ive is not one to let dust settle on old designs.

 

[Apple Ink]

That is where I was leading, however ..... given that the amount of testing is reduced, they can probably get the approval in 1 to 2 months and for competitive reasons get FCC to maintain secrecy. Maybe they already got the approval and been manufacturing for a while. (Fingers crossed).

Even Im hoping that Apple has actually done the testing and 3G iPhone is really really near!
Fingers crossed here too.......



P.S.: I was in full mood to get an iPhone but after all this, I had to scrap plans Just hoping it comes soon!

 

[EagerDragon]

iPhone2 will definitely LOOK different. Every new iteration of the ipods has seen big changes in design. No way they're rolling out a massively upgraded new device (with all the fanfare) in the same form factor.
I predict/hope:
1.THINNER (ala ipod touch).
2.ever so slightly WIDER screen
3.Maybe change up the silver/black COLOR duo?
4. Hopefully fix the headphone jack and tweak the SIM-card slot system.

Jonathan Ive is not one to let dust settle on old designs.

Apple does not listen to me, but my preference would be a bigger screen and if necessary same or thicker body to accommodate a bigger battery.

 

[Rocketman]

I am on the side this is a temporary shortage awaiting a Chinese restock of iPhone V1.0.

My guess is backed up by several CNBC reports. Jobs has declared CNBC a blessed outlet. As he shouuld since they treat Apple like gold.

I do believe iPhone 2.0 is in production but with FCC delays and the need to make more millions than even V1.0, I suspect June is a valid date. We might see pre-consumer-release corporate account uptake however. That would be a coup.

Speaking of CNBC, a report today said the 10% iPhone return rate at AT&T stores was due mainly to keyboard and battery complaints. Double the battery OPTION Steve. I told you so.

Rocketman

 

[RedAbundance]

my local store is out of iPhones too. there was a lady who wanted to buy one and was told by an apple store employee that they were out, and that most stores in the surrounding area are out too. the iPhone shipping status on apple.com has been changed to 5 to 7 business days.

we all know that a 3G is coming this year, and current inventory level could have some indication, but then again it could be not correlated at all to a new iPhone announcement.

what i like to see in a new iPhone:
1. thinner (i'm a sucker for thinness)
2. transparent body


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[hlynurge]

form factor

Wow, you surely must know something. So much authority on this post!

I (like you) have absolutely no clue what the changes, if any, will be. I expect 3G, and maybe slightly better battery life. Anything else would be a surprise.

Even Steve can't make a good keynote with only those enhancements...
"One Last Thing: ...slightly better battery life"

 

[SpinThis!]

Maybe they already got the approval and been manufacturing for a while.

That's possible. FCC approval does take a few months to complete but that certainly doesn't mean Apple hasn't already submitted its required documentation. Companies can opt to have the specifics about the product quiet until an embargo date—which the FCC usually honors.

It's also possible Apple is artificially deflating the supply to increase the "want-level" and hype again or to make people think twice before purchasing a phone they will be discounting in 2 months.

 

[Apple Ink]

what i like to see in a new iPhone:
1. thinner
2. transparent body

You really don't want thinner. It'll feel like the touch, like it'll break just by bending. And besides, an object like the iPhone should feel substantial enough t be carried in your pockets!

And TRANSPARENT!!!! LoL

We'd love to see transparent iPhones...

 

[RedAbundance]

You really don't want thinner. It'll feel like the touch, like it'll break just by bending. And besides, an object like the iPhone should feel substantial enough t be carried in your pockets!

And TRANSPARENT!!!! LoL

We'd love to see transparent iPhones...

obviously it will depend on the material that will be used. thin does not necessarily mean fragile. an iPhone made of transparent material would be HOT! but this is just my own wishful thinking.

 

[Shadowriver]

....an iPhone made of transparent material would be HOT! but this is just my own wishful thinking.

And the gonna help a JB community, see the chips... yea, right ;p

 

[SkippyThorson]

I know exactly what's going to happen.

A new iPhone will be released one day.

Booyah.

Seriously - this is probably one of the bigger twists I've seen in Apple's marketing strategies. I basically have no idea what they could be trying to pull with this. No way it's a mistake, it's very intentional, but if it's a known burp in production, it's not Apple's fault.

For the love of Steve, I would really like to know what's to come of iPhone. AT&T doing deals on it, shortages in the U.S. only but not overseas, no reason for a new release in the immediate future... WWDC still has my bet, but that's a ways off. Something, whatever it is, has to fill in the gap.

 

[donniedarko]

Market manipulation... Apple can do as they like and they are. clear stock and create desire.

To be noted the 3G deal is over rated. US infrastructure is not like Japan or parts of Europe, which I am sure some of you know.

 

[Stuart in Oz]

You really don't want thinner. It'll feel like the touch, like it'll break just by bending. And besides, an object like the iPhone should feel substantial enough t be carried in your pockets!

I have a Touch (no iPhone in Australia yet ) and it's not at all flimsy. The thing is as tough as nails - I've dropped it onto concrete a couple of times and I travel with it in my side pocket on public transport all the time.

But the extra thinness could be a bad thing on the iPhone - the Touch is so thin that if you hold it up to your ear it's quite difficult to keep it where you want it. I think the iPhone is better being just that little bit thicker.

 

[swagi]

Simple fact

None of you has acknowledged the fact, that the shortage is US only. Well, here comes Captain obvious.

AFAIK the enterprise program is US only. There are several enterprises out there under heavy NDA, that want to test out the phone in their environment. They can take up to 5 registered iPhones to use.

Simple calc: 5 phones per business in the US times say 20 K business (small to big), that want to test out -> 100K phones.

Another point: Epocrates on the phone is big. I don't know the number of Epocrates using physicians in the US. Imagine those guys buying a phone in advance.

In short, the SDK announcement simply could have created a bunch of demand, Apple currently can't meet. Maybe you would currently see European phones in ridiculous prices on eBay, if Apple sold them as easily without contract, as they do in the US.