iPhone with 28% of U.S. Smartphone Marketshare for Q4 2007

[diamond.g]

Why ? a few years down the line, the 'popular' OS wont be windows, nor OSX, its highly likely to be Android.
Apple can survive in an android dominated world, windows declines.

Maybe, and most likely that will because Google will make sure it runs on as many devices as possible. Apple could be in the same position as Google, if they were to embrace different kinds of hardware. Beside it would show the world that Apple can write to as many kinds of hardware as MS did and still have a smooth non bloated OS. (Well that and cause I wanna run OS X on my home built PC)

 

[compuguy1088]

On my recent trek around the right half of the US, I saw a ton of iPhones everywhere. I easily saw more iPhones in the last week than all the iPods I ever saw combined.

Of course, the observation is skewed: I notice iPhones. I don't notice Blackberries. People tend to hold the iPhone more than the iPod, or at the very least, use them more frequently than the iPod.

(Similarly, seems like most notebooks in the airport were a PB/MBP)

At the college campus I go to, I seem to see more iphones (on average) than other smartphones combined (blackjack, q, blackberry). It is suprising to me .

Note: I own a iPhone

 

[BongoBanger]

You realize that if Apple can get just 10% of mobile phone sales, OSX will be more prevalent than windows full stop?

If Apple get 10% of all mobile phone sales it won't be through the iPhone because the market isn't geared to that volume. Apple would have to sell cheaper handsets which may not be powered by OSX.

Lets not forget every iPhone, every AppleTV, every other lifestyle device on the cards will have OSX running.

Every Apple device will be but since that's a small share of the market it's a meaningless statement.

Lets not forget that Apple are currently only selling iPhones to a small proportion of the planet.

The iPhone is on sale in the US, the UK, France and Germany all of which are key markets. The sales in Europe - which is a far, far different market from the US - have been nothing to write home about and there is nothing to suggest that this would be any different in the other mature markets.

Lets not forget that Apples traditional computers and laptops are slowly eating away at windows market share.

Actually, they're not. In North America Apple increased market share to 6.1% with a 28% jump in sales which sounds impressive until you realise that HP has 31.1% of the market and Dell 26.1%. However, it's not that impressive when you realise that North America is only the third largest market in the world and Apple hardly register in the global market which HP is leading with 18.2% of the market and sales increase of 30%.

In other words, HP sold more than 20 times as many units than Apple globally and they still had less than 20% of the market.

So, no, it's not going to overtake Windows anytime soon unless you can get OSX to run on other people's hardware without a hack.

Lets not forget the fact that technology moves on (most people in my experience have a great difficulty here)

You seem to be having great difficulty in understanding market dynamics. Sure, technology moves on but the only way an OS will dominate is if can be used by many different manufacturers. As Apple have kept OSX proprietary this will not happen.

all those lifestyle devices become more powerful and become proper computers in their own right, through the back door Apple has created one of the widest used OS's on the planet.

Once again, no. You're confusing 'North America' and 'the planet' here. Your numbers don't stack up.

And lets not forget that prices come down! Markets that are unthinkable now will be fully attainable tomorrow, products similar to the iPhone will eventually be affordable to the masses.

Yup, and there will be scores of competing products.

Don't get me wrong, I like OSX but you're just being silly here because it's not about what's the best OS, it's about what's the most available.

 

[ungraphic]

Durrr, of course. When the manufacturers compete on producing things cheaper and/or fall into featuritis, rather than producing a superior product.

Doc Marten's competes with Walmart brand shoes, and the result is Doc Martens produces shoddy crap in China, rather than quality boots made in England.

Computer manufacturers move their customer support to India, to get a better profit margin than their competition, the result is useless tech support. Apple tried that too a year or so ago, except they're small enough to be bullied into reversing that decision, which they did.

VW's Lopez tried to stay competitive by buying the cheapest components possible, and forced suppliers into producing cheaper yet. The result was 60% decrease in market share on the US market, because the product was plain garbage.

Do you have any other questions?

Yes, I do have another question.

Why is it that you seem to think the only way to 'win' is by having a cheaper product? And why is it that you seem to think competition amongst manufacturers means the consumer losing out. Also, why are you so hung up on a company winning over a product and its market share? Are you one of those that wears an Apple T-Shirt out in public, has that sticker that ships with every mac plastered on your cars bumper, twice (because it comes in two?).

You obviously failed to see the point I was making. How do any of those things that you pointed out have anything to do with the consumer having a better overall product in the long run?

 

[gifford]

Maybe, and most likely that will because Google will make sure it runs on as many devices as possible. Apple could be in the same position as Google, if they were to embrace different kinds of hardware. Beside it would show the world that Apple can write to as many kinds of hardware as MS did and still have a smooth non bloated OS. (Well that and cause I wanna run OS X on my home built PC)

Apples strategy is to provide order within chaos, to take the 10%-30% who are willing to pay a premium for style and cutting edge technology. It would be more profitable, for them to continue their current path.

 

[milo]

Actually, they're not. In North America Apple increased market share to 6.1% with a 28% jump in sales which sounds impressive until you realise that HP has 31.1% of the market and Dell 26.1%. However, it's not that impressive when you realise that North America is only the third largest market in the world and Apple hardly register in the global market which HP is leading with 18.2% of the market and sales increase of 30%.

In other words, HP sold more than 20 times as many units than Apple globally and they still had less than 20% of the market.

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. Apple IS gaining market share on windows in the USA, although slowly. Are you saying they're not making any gain worldwide? I doubt that.

 

[diamond.g]

Apples strategy is to provide order within chaos, to take the 10%-30% who are willing to pay a premium for style and cutting edge technology. It would be more profitable, for them to continue their current path.

EDIT: nevermind...

 

[BongoBanger]

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. Apple IS gaining market share on windows in the USA, although slowly. Are you saying they're not making any gain worldwide? I doubt that.

gifford's original statement was:

How long until OSX outnumbers Vista on new devices? Not long at this growth and the 3G phone hasn't even been released yet. And when it does.. whooooooosh

Given the market data I posted, clearly OSX isn't going to outnumber Vista on new devices anytime soon. The fact Apple have made some gains in the US is nice but largely irrelevant to global sales where they're still weak and not making the gains that the likes of HP and Acer are.

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

 

[milo]

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

I was referring to your "Actually, they're not" which sounded like you were disputing that apple is gaining market share over windows. They definitely are in the USA, I don't know about worldwide but I suspect they are overseas as well.

 

[justflie]

Good for them! That was fast. Hopefully this will encourage developers to really have at it when the SDK is released. PLEASE figure out how to support WPA2 Enterprise TLS!!!

 

[gifford]

If Apple get 10% of all mobile phone sales it won't be through the iPhone because the market isn't geared to that volume. Apple would have to sell cheaper handsets which may not be powered by OSX.

Processor speeds increase prices come down, OSX will fit into whatever common device you throw at it soon.

Every Apple device will be but since that's a small share of the market it's a meaningless statement.

...at the moment , I'm speculating on the future here. And small market share, are you sure 100,000,000 iPods is a fairly large number, n million iPhones that already are one of the biggest players in smartphones.
PS: almost ALL phones will be smart phones over the next few years.

The iPhone is on sale in the US, the UK, France and Germany all of which are key markets. The sales in Europe - which is a far, far different market from the US - have been nothing to write home about and there is nothing to suggest that this would be any different in the other mature markets.

Europe is waiting for 3g, watch what happen when it is released over the next few months.
Also, the world does not revolve around the west, there are 4.5 billion people in asia alone. With ever increasing wealth.

So, no, it's not going to overtake Windows anytime soon unless you can get OSX to run on other people's hardware without a hack.

If apple can eventually take 10% - 20% of all digital lifestyle devices which require an OS, they will be more profitable than msft who currently owns 90%. Much more money in the premium market as a quick comparison with dell shows, its not all about how many computers you chuckmout the door.

You seem to be having great difficulty in understanding market dynamics. Sure, technology moves on but the only way an OS will dominate is if can be used by many different manufacturers. As Apple have kept OSX proprietary this will not happen.

No I dont, thats a similar kind of mindset to dell, I dont think you understand apple's strategy. I have a long history of backing technology that the majority initially thought was stupid or went against traditional market dynamics. And I'm sure I will be proved correct again.

Once again, no. You're confusing 'North America' and 'the planet' here. Your numbers don't stack up.

No I'm not, I was talking about the future when apple ipod products run solely on OSX.

Yup, and there will be scores of competing products.

Ah finally we agree on something! Yes there will be scores of competing products, but very few will be windows, which is what my whole point is about. Unix is the future. And apple will take the cream.

 

[MacFly123]

Not by any stretch am I a fan of Steve Ballmer, but let's be fair. He said that back when the iPhone was more expensive and before a lot of the final details about the phone's quality and features were known. I think if the iPhone were still available for the original price without all the features and quality-enhancements that were made public at the last-minute, Ballmer's prediction would have pretty much been dead-on accurate.

Either way you look at it that is called a LACK OF VISION. He should especially expect those things being the C.E.O. of a tech company and knowing how things work and progress. But then again Microsoft doesn't work and progress like Apple

 

[gifford]

gifford's original statement was:

Given the market data I posted, clearly OSX isn't going to outnumber Vista on new devices anytime soon. The fact Apple have made some gains in the US is nice but largely irrelevant to global sales where they're still weak and not making the gains that the likes of HP and Acer are.

Not sure what's unclear about this point.

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.

PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...

 

[Kar98]

You obviously failed to see the point I was making.

You failed to see the point /I/ was making. Competition doesn't necessarily, always mean yay, the consumer wins. I did not say it's always the consumer losing at all. That was your own hyperbole. So, while you're beating on the strawman you've put up, you might as well keep playing with yourself.

Also, why are you so hung up on a company winning over a product and its market share?

I'm not. Apple is. OMGWTFBBQ we've got 28% marketshare on the smartphone market (if we're ignoring the 40 million devices that HTC and others are selling and just count the non-touch screen half-wit phones).

Now go and play with yourself.

 

[BongoBanger]

Processor speeds increase prices come down, OSX will fit into whatever common device you throw at it soon.

You're missing the point. Unless Apple make it available to other hardware manufacturers then it will never eclipse Microsoft's operating systems on PCs.

...at the moment , I'm speculating on the future here.

Anyone can do that, it's meaningless though.

And small market share, are you sure 100,000,000 iPods is a fairly large number

Absolutely, the iPod dominates that market, however it's a totally different market from mobile communications where there is already an established pecking order so it's not really a relevant comparison.

n million iPhones that already are one of the biggest players in smartphones.

Well... sort of. In comparison I'd point out the Nokia N95 sold six million units to the iPhone's 4 million last year though.

PS: almost ALL phones will be smart phones over the next few years.

Not necessarily and even so it doesn't follow that they will all use a particular OS.

Europe is waiting for 3g, watch what happen when it is released over the next few months.

Europe has 3G and it also has a lot of phones that use it. However, 3G in itself wasn't why the iPhone didn't sell as well as it could. That was more down to pricing, being tied to a provider and lack of feature set than anything else.

Also, the world does not revolve around the west, there are 4.5 billion people in asia alone. With ever increasing wealth.

Yes, they're the second biggest computer market and HP and Dell dominate it. I do know the markets, you know.

If apple can eventually take 10% - 20% of all digital lifestyle devices which require an OS, they will be more profitable than msft who currently owns 90%.

If, if, if. However they won't unless OSX is released to other hardware manufacturers and then it's not about Apple hardware, it's about an Apple OS.

Much more money in the premium market as a quick comparison with dell shows, its not all about how many computers you chuckmout the door.

Nope, but sales volumes do count. HP's revenue was up over 10% in 2007 with profits in excess of $9 billion. They continue to grow at that rate.

No I dont, thats a similar kind of mindset to dell, I dont think you understand apple's strategy.

I do. It's not to dominate the mass market.

I have a long history of backing technology that the majority initially thought was stupid or went against traditional market dynamics. And I'm sure I will be proved correct again.

Sorry, not this time because mass market simply isn't Apple's strategy.

No I'm not, I was talking about the future when apple ipod products run solely on OSX.

This has what to do with anything though? Most people don't buy PCs to match their mp3 players. Yes they'll use a variant of OSX but it won't be the same one that runs the Mac.

Ah finally we agree on something! Yes there will be scores of competing products, but very few will be windows, which is what my whole point is about. Unix is the future. And apple will take the cream.

I doubt it for the simple reason Apple is proprietary and Microsoft so dominant.

 

[BongoBanger]

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.

PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...

I see the point you're making about OSX outnumbering Vista devices but you can't just compare one aspect of Microsoft's operating systems to all of OSX. Vista is an operating system for PCs, just as Leopard is an operating system for Macs. Lumping Leopard and the cut down version of OSX together as a homogeneous entity is kind of daft because they're not the same in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't Vista.

So to be clear, when I talk about 'devices' I'm referring to PCs because that's what Vista runs on. As such its competitor in that market is Leopard, not generic OSX.

 

[gifford]

You're missing the point. Unless Apple make it available to other hardware manufacturers then it will never eclipse Microsoft's operating systems on PCs.

Anyone can do that, it's meaningless though.

Not everyone can speculate with accuracy, and its accurate speculation that keeps apple ahead of the game, is that meaningless?

Absolutely, the iPod dominates that market, however it's a totally different market from mobile communications where there is already an established pecking order so it's not really a relevant comparison.

I dont think apple gives a crap about pecking order!!

Europe has 3G and it also has a lot of phones that use it. However, 3G in itself wasn't why the iPhone didn't sell as well as it could. That was more down to pricing, being tied to a provider and lack of feature set than anything else.

i know, i live in europe and have owned a 3G phone for years. people are waiting for the second revision , and one of the main functions they 'think' it lacks is 3G. Though my experience of 3G would say the iphone aint really missing out on much at all.

Yes, they're the second biggest computer market and HP and Dell dominate it. I do know the markets, you know.

yes but you seem unable or unwilling to see future markets or anything other than the here and now. asia in short space of time will be no1

Sorry, not this time because mass market simply isn't Apple's strategy.

You getting what im saying wrong. I dont think apple will eventually be THE mass market provider, android and other unix variants will take that crown. Also remember the game is changing the OS will simply be a platform to the web, apple could be (kinda already is) the sony(of the 20th century) of the digital lifestyle era. Until unix variants gain momentum apple could well be a mass market player as they have been in the mp3 industry.

This has what to do with anything though? Most people don't buy PCs to match their mp3 players. Yes they'll use a variant of OSX but it won't be the same one that runs the Mac.

very short sighted statement. ipod is ANOTHER back door to mobile computing.

I doubt it for the simple reason Apple is proprietary and Microsoft so dominant.

apple isnt the only unix based os.


It has been lovely talking to you, but my hands are on fire due to RSI and i litterally cant type anymore

please forgive my spelling and english i really am in much pain,

 

[gifford]

I see the point you're making about OSX outnumbering Vista devices but you can't just compare one aspect of Microsoft's operating systems to all of OSX. Vista is an operating system for PCs, just as Leopard is an operating system for Macs. Lumping Leopard and the cut down version of OSX together as a homogeneous entity is kind of daft because they're not the same in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't Vista.

So to be clear, when I talk about 'devices' I'm referring to PCs because that's what Vista runs on. As such its competitor in that market is Leopard, not generic OSX.

one last comment:
Vista i agree was originally a bad one to compare with on my behalf , i was looking for something to compare which reflected new devices sold,
'new Windows devices' would have been a better choice

 

[xStep]

To be fair, then all versions of Windows should be counted as well - Windows 4.0, Windows 5.0, Windows 5.1, Windows 6.0, Windows CE, Windows Mobile, ...

There's probably as big a gap between OSX 10.0 and 10.5 as there is between Windows 5.0 and Windows 6.0.

Not at all. We are talking about products currently being sold and future sales. Not the past.

 

[Syrus28]

Not at all. We are talking about products currently being sold and future sales. Not the past.

Howso? Does apple not count how many iPod Videos/Nanos of previous generation when counting total iPod sales? Do we not count Tiger in market share of Mac OS X?

 

[xStep]

Not everyone is blessed with an understanding of the markets either. You can speculate all you want but Apple are still a niche player worldwide. You really should look at the market share reports before making silly statements.

Also, as others have pointed out, xStep is incorrect because he implies that the version of OSX used on each device is homogeneous which they're not in the same way that Windows Mobile isn't the same as Windows Vista.

I never said that they _are_ homogeneous versions of OS X. Apple has stripped things out of the current 'non computer' devices. But hey, I will say it; Apple is working with a homogeneous (common/like) code base from the core to the windowing system and that allows them to bring the OS X versions closer together in the future. Sure there are some differences. What really matters is how the user and developers see things, not the internal low level coding differences. This isn't the first time the OS X derivative has been ported to a new platform, it has occurred at least a half dozen times since it was referred to OpenStep.

From the little I've seen of Windows mobile, it looks like a bad fork from some distant version of Windows. I'd appreciate it if some developer who has coded for both could pipe up here to describe their porting experience between the two. We have yet to see how development will actually work between the big cat version of OS X and the smaller i-devices of OS X.

As far as those market share reports go, who cares. They are talking about the past and perhaps the immediate present. The future is unwritten. Apple could go nonproprietary, Microsoft could actually make a superior product, Nokia could trip, and someone in a garage could still surprise us all. As for me, I don't really care about market share beyond the need to give me a better experience with these tools.

It's been fun, but apparently I need to go off and be terribly sick now.

 

[Syrus28]

Apple sold about 20million ipods a quarter
World computer sales are what 60 million a quarter?

what percent of those are getting loaded with vista? nowhere near 90% thats for sure.

This discussion supports and also hurts your point. While Vista is no where near 90% market share, it is growing at a rate far much faster than anything Apple is selling, let alone Mac OS X. Its estimated to have sold 100 million licenses. Now licenses doesn't translate into market share. Vista still gained a higher market share [10.47%] in 8 months than Mac OS X has in 7 years [7.31%]

So add in all apple other products that WILL contain OSX, and the numbers dont look so stupid.

Actually, compared to the number of products that contain Windows, it makes them look even worse.

Xbox - 24 Million sold
Xbox 360 - 17.7 million sold
Vista - ~100 million sold
XP - at least 900 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

Now while these numbers are far from exact, but I think it does a good job of showing Windows is present on MANY more devices than Mac OS X. In fact, Microsoft estimates by the end of this year, there will be more Windows-based computers than there are CARS. Thats 1 billion+ devices with Windows [full version] on it.

PS: apple will sell far more iphones than they did ipods...

No way in hell with the iPhone sell that many. If so, it would be on its way to become the best selling phone in history [Dethroning the Nokia 1100 which sold 200 million currently at <$60]. At a $400/$500 price point, it won't even get near the 100 million mark anytime soon. Hell, the Razr only sold 70 million, and they give those away for free.

Don't forget that the smart phone market share is not nearly as big as the total mobile phone market. Also, 46% of the smart phone market share is in China, where Microsoft doubled its sales from last year. The iPhone is missing from this market right now.

 

[xStep]

Howso? Does apple not count how many iPod Videos/Nanos of previous generation when counting total iPod sales? Do we not count Tiger in market share of Mac OS X?

When counting total sales from original release date, yes, but that isn't what is being discussed.

As I'm understanding the argument, we are talking about future sales. Someone suggested that the OS X platform will be selling in more numbers than the current version of Vista or 'new Windows devices'. So, say in the month of January of 2010, Apple will have sold more devices running OS X than Microsoft has sold running it's platform(s).

Even if that occurs, the Windos platform will still have a majority of the active market. It would take many more years to actually displace currently working Windows platforms. Hell, some people still use Microsofts DOS.

 

[Syrus28]

When counting total sales from original release date, yes, but that isn't what is being discussed.

As I'm understanding the argument, we are talking about future sales. Someone suggested that the OS X platform will be selling in more numbers than the current version of Vista or 'new Windows devices'. So, say in the month of January of 2010, Apple will have sold more devices running OS X than Microsoft has sold running it's platform(s).

Yes, I guess I misunderstood.

Even if that occurs, the Windows platform will still have a majority of the active market. It would take many more years to actually displace currently working Windows platforms. Hell, some people still use Microsofts DOS.

I would even argue that we will never see Mac OS X displace the Windows Platform. As long as both exist, that is. Let alone "in a few years" like some people are claiming.

 

[gifford]

This discussion supports and also hurts your point. While Vista is no where near 90% market share, it is growing at a rate far much faster than anything Apple is selling, let alone Mac OS X. Its estimated to have sold 100 million licenses. Now licenses doesn't translate into market share. Vista still gained a higher market share [10.47%] in 8 months than Mac OS X has in 7 years [7.31%]

You would make a great politician Syrus.

Actually, compared to the number of products that contain Windows, it makes them look even worse.

Xbox - 24 Million sold
Xbox 360 - 17.7 million sold
Vista - ~100 million sold
XP - at least 900 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

I wasnt aware xbox, zune ran windows? on ibm chips? Not out the box, so im gonna discount those.

Getting back to the point (as your numbers often seem to meander from the point in question), we are talking about NEW devices.

so discount xp
we can keep zune in for fun if you like
we should really be comparing the following numbers...

Vista - ~100 million sold
Zune - at least 1 million sold
Windows Mobile - [cant find any total sales] Sold 11 million in 2007, expects 20 million in 2008

Macs - 50 [?] million sold
iPod - 140 million sold
iPhone - 4 million sold
Apple TV - 1 million sold [apple expected this many by Dec 07]

though there is still legacy sales in mac AND vista which skew from the original talking point. vista most definitely did not sell 100mil on new machines.

Microsoft estimates by the end of this year, there will be more Windows-based computers than there are CARS. Thats 1 billion+ devices with Windows [full version] on it.

ahh im glad you mentioned the 1 billion mark, as that is how many phones are sold EVERY YEAR! Also you are talking historic data still.

No way in hell with the iPhone sell that many. If so, it would be on its way to become the best selling phone in history [Dethroning the Nokia 1100 which sold 200 million currently at <$60]. At a $400/$500 price point, it won't even get near the 100 million mark anytime soon. Hell, the Razr only sold 70 million, and they give those away for free.

Don't forget that the smart phone market share is not nearly as big as the total mobile phone market. Also, 46% of the smart phone market share is in China, where Microsoft doubled its sales from last year.

We shall see. I have set a countdown that will warn me to check the stats again in 2 years time(though i expect most significant changes in the third/forth year), if your still on this forum, til then..