johnnyjibbs said:
If the iPod had all these new complicated features, a colour screen, and had an in-built DVD player it would have to be bigger. This would then compromise its ability to be a small and best-of-field music player (including less battery life). Most of the time you don't want to watch a movie - and, as Jobs said himself, there's no substitute to headphones with video - you're stuck with a tiny and low quality screen.
Therefore I don't expect the new iPods to be very different to the current. Maybe video out capabilities (why not?), and maybe a face redesign (similar to the iPod mini and ironically the 2nd generation iPod) and higher capacities. As soon as you start putting on touch screens and stylus pens or colour monitors and flash card sockets, it becomes one of those useless jack of all trades but master of none things and suddenly you've lost the reason to own an iPod in the first place. Remember, escapism.
The comments above illustrate an important point, which is that consumers should be wary of purist rhetoric and spin from Apple regarding dedicated-function consumer devices. Is less more? Sometimes. Is less more when you are missing features, have the wrong price point and lack the resources and vehicles to dominate your corner of the multi-media segment? Probably not.
When it comes to the consumer, Apple is, once again, setting themselves up for "marginalization," and they have no clue about the commodity/converged marketplaces or how to produce or ship large-volume products in a timely manner. Less is less. There's nothing inherently wrong with a dedicated-function device, but it better have the price-point it needs to achieve volume and you better be able to ship it.
In the media space, these realities are coming at Apple so fast, they're not even going to know what hit them. And, besides cheaper dedicated devices, they're coming in the form of the Sony PSP (PlayStation Personal) and other converged/commodity devices.
Comparing Games and Tunes:
Apple has sold 3+ million iPods into the market (since late 2001)...whoopee! Well, Sony has sold over 20 million Playstations and Nintendo has sold a similar number of GameBoy Advance (hand-held) consoles (also since 2001). In fact, in Nov. 2002, Nintendo sold 1.5 million units in a single month and have outsold the iPod overall by approximately 7 to 1. Sony plans to sell 3 million PSP's
in a single quarter during the upcoming 2004 Christmas season.
Beyond Sony's initial PSP projection and likely high-volume, competing music-only devices, what do you think the penetration of a hand-held PSP will be with a color display, that will also, no doubt, be able to link to Sony's music store and play color music videos? Oh...and by the way, the Universal Media Disc (UMD) format implemented in the PSP is probably going to become the standard for unifying games and multi-media (music, music videos). What about the cross-marketing potential of such a device?
So, in
less than 2 quarters, a multi-media Sony Playstation Personal will easily surpass iPod volumes and drive Sony's music + video + game store. Okey Dokey, Apple iPod/iTMS. Giddyap, donkey.
Nobody expects Apple to make a video game console. I merely use the PSP as an example of a high-volume product in a similar price range to the iPod ($300+) that is going to completely change the market's multi-media focus and shift the standard. Sony basically just has to exhale to set the standard. What can Apple do about that? It's a tough one.
However, Sony will probably have to subsidize initial PSP manufacturing, as Apple should be doing RIGHT NOW with the iPod to achieve volume. But, I guess it doesn't matter what the price or subsidization is if you can't deliver the units. The iPod minis may be on track by the time the PSP appears (Christmas 2004), if Apple is lucky and can figure out how not to be held hostage by disk drive manufacturers. Too bad they don't have higher iPod volumes - that might give them some clout.
I've posted in other threads about Apple's catastrophic business logic failing in regard to the iPod, and it seems like Apple has about 6-12 months before Sony (for example) kicks their sleek, overpriced, 6-week-lead-time butts out of the digital media market "lead position." It's easy to lead when the competition isn't competing yet. The writing is on the wall unless Apple has a major shift in their ideology and understanding about how to target consumer products and own the space they helped define.