elo said:
And people will buy them like hotcakes. Comparison with the Sony Playstation Portable is silly. The device is *much* larger and heavier than the iPod and practically screams geek. People (that is, the people who would be caught dead with such a thing) will use it for some of their tunes, of course, but it will not become the stand-alone music player of choice among the crowd that would consider an iPod. In short, the PSP plays to a demographic with limited overlap to the iPod's.
Apple knows what it's doing.
elo - I think you might be missing the point. The comparison with PSP was just to illustrate that, even with a
converged device, Apple's "leading marketshare position" is going to evaporate
virtually overnight once a larger player like Sony takes action. Apple
does not and will not own the standard in the face of that kind of competition, no matter what they think.
In addition to the PSP, Sony (and others) will obviously have dedicated devices, which will be "good enough" copies of the iPod, and they also have the media, technology, and distribution channels to get them in the hands of consumers in volume and on time. By comparison, Apple is weak in all those categories and the stand-alone devices will be sold in even greater numbers, further eroding Apple's position.
However, looking further at PSP in terms of a viable, converged device, when it comes to average consumer shopping dollars for the holiday shopping season, parents aren't going to buy a $300 iPod for their kids who want both video games and music. If you were a parent, which way would you allocate your hard-earned income? It's one or the other and the iPod pricing is so far out of whack, it's comical. Apple needs to make a $50 consumer unit, or maybe even a free unit with an iTMS service contract. Kids and parents don't seem to have problems with cell phone contracts. Why shouldn't there be one for music too?
But, that's another good point. What happens with converged mp3/cell phones and kids? I have an mp3 phone. iPod? Bah! I wonder who will recruit cell phone manufacturers to provide music on a subscription basis? Too bad Apple hasn't had the forethought to license AAC to Nokia, or any of the other major phone manufacturers.
Whoever makes their audio standard the most available (open or via license) in any preferred device incarnation will get support from the low-cost, me-too digital audio player clones/devices/bolt-ons, further entrenching that company's standard in the market and generating additional traffic and revenue.
Will Apple license AAC? errmmm...let me check
The Magic A-Ball ...
"Blinded By Shiny iPod Case - Check Again Later."
Quite honestly, Apple has
no idea what they're doing, and in 1-2 years, if they continue to adopt such an exclusive, non-consumer-oriented, small-thinking, niche-leading posture, you'll see why. It won't be a world using iPods, iTMS, and Apple's audio standards. The world will use the technology that a more adept, business-savvy, licensing-aware company can deliver as a targeted consumer commodity, no matter how "cool" the iPod may be.
And, that will be sad.
I'll come back and find this thread again in a year or so and cop to my errors, if need be. 
