iPod Flash Early 2005?

[oingoboingo]

Yah, I've seen that before - that's GOLD.

My favourite quote from the article:

"The haters offer their assessment. The forums are ablaze with vitriolic rage. Haters pan the device for being less powerful than a Cray X1 while zealots counter that it is both smaller and lighter than a Buick Regal. The virtual slap-fight goes on and on, until obscure technical nuances like, “Will it play multiplexed Ogg Vorbis streams?” become matters of life and death."

I think it's already starting...

 

[~Shard~]

Hey, what is Apple going to call this thing anyway? The iPod mini mini? The iPod micro?

 

[~Shard~]

My favourite quote from the article:

"The haters offer their assessment. The forums are ablaze with vitriolic rage. Haters pan the device for being less powerful than a Cray X1 while zealots counter that it is both smaller and lighter than a Buick Regal. The virtual slap-fight goes on and on, until obscure technical nuances like, “Will it play multiplexed Ogg Vorbis streams?” become matters of life and death."

I think it's already starting...

I'd agree with that. However, I also think there's some interesting points to consider in the sections that comment on Apple's stock, what with the recent turn of events on Wall Street... hmm....

 

[bentmywookie]

Looks cool? Will sell

In my opinion, the size difference between a regular iPod and an iPod mini isn't significant enough on its own to warrant the purchase of 4gbs at $250 vs. 20gbs at $300. But taking in the total package - the mini looks "cooler" to me, and I think that's what gets (most) people.

Nice, colorful brushed alumninum + the tiny factor + being the new(er) device makes the iPod mini attractive as fashion over function. I think that's one thing that will help sell a flash-based iPod (if it does come out). Apple will certainly make it look cool, GQ will certainly remind me that I NEED one, and I, with at least $100 to spare on my credit limit, will almost certainly go buy it - regardless of the price vs. performance ratio with the other iPods.

With that said, I will pray tonight that a significant announcement such as this at MWSF will not preclude the introduction of new dual-core powerbooks.

 

[dotnina]

But how are they keeping the form factor?

So what kind of form factor do you think this flash-based iPod will have? I think it’ll be smaller than the Mini, but then what sort of interface would it have? I don’t think you can reasonably do the click wheel on something smaller than a Mini. If they keep a touchpad on this, I’m thinking they might run it along the top or side of the device … but how usable would that be?

Ok, those of you talented with Photoshop – commence the mockups.

 

[Porchland]

A flash iPod makes sense. But the rest of the original blurb seems off. First, I would hope that Apple would sell it very cheap without a flash card (less than $75). Second, by time it is introduced a 4Gb micro drive may be feasible at less than $175. If the total is less than $200 and the whole thing is smaller than an iPod mini, it should be a good seller.

To me, the huge question mark from every perspective -- design, manufacturing, cost, etc. -- is whether the flash card will upgradable or will be embedded in the player as the hard drive is in the iPod/mini.

I would expect Apple to do something more than simply roll out a 1 GB iPod mini for $150 and say, by the way, it's flash. iPod Sport?

 

[aswitcher]

This rumor has TheWama stamp of approval.

Consider this:
1. High-Efficiency Advanced Audio Codec (HE-AAC) was recently acknowledged as a tech with Apple's support.
2. HE-ACC can suposedly encode "consumer quality stereo" at 48kbps.
3. The only market the iPod isn't dominating is the flash market.
4. The flash market is growing significantly faster than the HD market, 21% vs. 12%. This despite the iPod mini.
5. The big problem with the small devices is the number of songs they can hold. So Steve says "they end up in a drawer somewhere".

I think HE-AAC's lower bitrate puts a flash player at a reasonable number of songs, when compared to intial offering of iPod devices, like the first iPod and the first iPod mini:

Minimum iPod Capacity offered by Apple
iPod Capacity Bit-Rate.. Songs
.1G. ..5GB.. ..128kbps.. ~1000
mini ..4GB.. ..128kbps.. ~1000
flash .1GB.. ...48kbps.. ~650

So as I said, it all makes sense.
Curious to see what they come up with for the UI...
----------------------------------------------------------
Eagerly awaiting word back from Apple on an internship I interviewed for.
If you work for Apple, I'd appreciate a little help.
If you don't I could use a few prayers or good wishes or something.

The new compression will be Steve's excuse for going to flash against his previous claims. I think its going to be a gig as well for the same reasons. If 2 million is right then economies of scale should allow a nice well priced little mini-mini-ipod...

 

[dstorey]

idea for form factor

I know i'll be so wrong but here is my idea on how it could be done.

Take a key chain usb size device, mould it to the shape of a marker pen, made of aluminium tube, similar to the iPod mini. The cap end would be either physically twistable, or a sensor where you run your finger round it as if you were twisting it. If twistable it would be diamond etched like the grip of a torch. That would take up much less room that a traditional scroll wheel. The display would be on one side of the tube (well tubes dont have sides but you know what i mean), with maybe room for one or two songs. The other end would have either a retractable usb connector or a cap that came off. The end would have an apple logo and the other end with the dial would have a rocker switch for play, pause etc. Or maybe the buttons could be some place else. The usb would be usb 2 so it could be used as a regular key chain device for swapping files between pc's, and it would have 1 gb of space, for 149 but i wouldnt be surprised at 199. Call it something like the iPod sport. Thats my ideas anyway on how to fit it in a smaller size.

 

[~Shard~]

I don't care what it looks like as long as it doesn't resemble this...

 

[Zigster]

For extraneous, luxury non-essential items like IPOD, $99 is a major price point.

I think Swissman called it right.

If I have to give up something, I'd give up replaceable flash if I could get keychain size and ez to use.

 

[Porchland]

This absolutely superb link describes all you will ever need to know about generating new Apple rumours. Once you've read this, every new rumour appearing on any site will appear old-hat.

http://www.misterbg.org/AppleProductCycle/

We're now at Phase Four: "Eager Mac-heads fan the flames by flooding the Mac discussion forums with more groundless conjecture. Threads pop up around feature wish lists, favorite colors, and likely retail price points. In a matter of days, a third-hand, unsubstantiated rumor blossoms into a hand-held device that can do everything except find a girlfriend for a fat, smelly nerd."

 

[Mechcozmo]

We're now at Phase Four: "Eager Mac-heads fan the flames by flooding the Mac discussion forums with more groundless conjecture. Threads pop up around feature wish lists, favorite colors, and likely retail price points. In a matter of days, a third-hand, unsubstantiated rumor blossoms into a hand-held device that can do everything except find a girlfriend for a fat, smelly nerd."

Okay then...

It should cure cancer, be a silver/blue mix that changes when exposed to sunlight, and cost $99. And I am not fat... or smelly... a girlfriend would be nice...

Ohhh! And can play multiplexed Ogg Vorbis streams? Tell me or I snap and kill you all!!!

 

[deral]

Hmmm...I already got an regular sized iPod, and so my mindframe is that whenever new generations of iPods come out, I drool, wipe, and then walk away. I have no desire to get a second iPod at $399+ since I already have one.

When Apple releases a micro-mini-teenie-weenie iPod--then maybe then I'd be enticed to get a second one. Why? maybe because of the idea that this small iPod would be cheaper and smaller than mines, so it would be more of an accessory to my iPod rather than a replacement.

Here's my analogy. An Apple pie at McKidies is 93 cents. But you can buy two for a dollar. Most of the times, I really don't need the second Apple iPie, but I'd buy the two for one special because that second pie, costs a lot cheaper than buying one.

I know I'm not making sense, but what I'm trying to get at is that maybe other people, like me, might by a smaller cheaper iPod as their second iPod just because

 

[supergod]

The only reason they would even think of doing this is if it netted more money for them than minis. If they could manage to make a nice profit on these they'll do it. They don't really need to appeal to the flash player market right now: they're doing damn fine with hard drive players. On a side note, if this means 8 gig iPod minis, I'm all for it. I've got around 7 gigs of music so the current minis are obviously out, but I don't want a 20 gig iPod (especially when the minis are better designed and less damaged by wear and tear). The question I have is whether new iPod minis would still have the same price or whether they would be introduced at a higher price tag (total suckage) and whether they'll introduce new body colours and maybe new wheel colours, which i personally think would be really tight. White iPod mini with green wheel...

 

[Abstract]

Just like everyone said the original iPod was a dumb idea and would never sell and was horribly over-priced and was just a waste of engineering...

riiiiiight... I respect your opinion, I just think you're wrong.

Yes, but the original iPod came out when the market was fresh and nobody knew exactly what a good HD player was or what it could offer in terms of interface. A flash based iPod can't really be revolutionary at this point. They're going into a maturing market, so people already have an idea of whether this is a good idea or not. There are lots of good flash based players out already. Much different situation.

All those people saying that they want a cheap player with 256MB, 512MB or 1GB cards.....well, I don't think Apple will offer anything smaller than 1GB. I'm also not quite sure if Apple would offer it for anything less than $200, which isn't THAT much cheaper than the iPod Mini.

And then you can argue that the iPod brand will carry it through. Well, a flash iPod will need to take a different form factor entirely, so the signature look won't carry through to this player.


And can someone tell me how much 1GB of memory costs in the USA nowadays? How about 1GB flash mp3 players? They sure seem to cost more than $200....

 

[smurfjammer]

Everything comes in three's

Apple likes to do things in three's - iPod Mini, iPod, iPod Photo.

If there's going to be a flash based iPod, the Mini will lose it's hard drive and be replaced will a removable flash drive...

(We don't want too many models...anyone remember what was happening at Apple before Steve came back - too many models and losing too many $$$$)

 

[Laslo Panaflex]

Apple is iPod obsessed

Apple needs to quit being so obsessed with the iPod, I mean, even the new iMac is an iPod look alike. The iPod is great, I love it, and a cheaper and more accessable iPod for the low end is great, but I thought that Apple made computers??!?!?

Apple needs to make a inexpensive headless mac, I know friends that have an iPod and love it, but would never buy a mac becuase they are too expensive, and they can't play the majority of the PC games.

Which leads me to part 2, Apple needs to take the initiative and port PC games to the mac. They have the ability to make the games the most compatible and run optimimally becuase they have access to the OS X source code, and they have the cash to pay for the rights to port the games.

If Apple had a headless mac, and ported games, there would be no reason for people to use a PC, Period. I know that it is no easy task to take on, but it needs to be done, if apple wants to get more people to buy mac computers.

 

[iGen]

Like I said back in Oct:

1GB iPod mini $199
5GB iPod mini $249
MWSF '05

 

[Xtremehkr]

I wish the iPod Mini Itty Bitty the best of luck. It is still going to be a stylish, high quality Apple product that people will like wearing. It will still be compatible with the best Music Store on the internet. And it will meet the needs of those who are looking for something small to take to the gym or something.

I have an iPod Mini which serves both purposes for me, but eventually I will replace that with a regular iPod and probably a Mini Itty Bitty for the Gym and riding my bike etc.

There are some people who don't seem to like anything Apple does.

 

[Steven1621]

I might get one. I tend to destroy my MP3 players (mountain biking), so hard drive based ones are no good for me, besides the $$$. Anyway I'm only riding for 1-4 hours, so I don't need all the space. Good deal Apple, a logical step anyway.

exactly. my ipod sucks for running. a flash based player to to hold an hour or two worth of music would be perfect for me. perhaps with an FM tuner, it might be perfect.

 

[rikers_mailbox]

flashPods before x-mas?

I don't want to sounds like a n00b here. . . but seems like Apple would want to release a flash-based iPod before the holidays. Think of the huge amout of buzz that Apple would create.

Remember, Apple is still a computer company. The iPods are just a really successful side project. Bottom line is, the more people that come in the store, the more computers go out the door. (didn't mean it to rhyme like that!) What better time than when the zombies* are out holiday shopping?

Which reminds me. I was in the Pasadena store the other day while someone was buying an Airport Express. I SWEAR I heard the Apple-guy say that the price was lowered from $129 to $116. But the Apple Store doesn't show a change. Am I hearing things again?

* zombies = wintel user-base

 

[maclamb]

Jobs apparently contradicting himself is no biggie - he's not talking about a flash player that APPLE has made - just the other guys.
and, true I thought the mini - was dumb.
Until I got one for my wife for her birthday (thankyouthankyouthankyou, steve).
color me true believer.
and, steve has a history of good instincts...
or, at least *associating* with people with good instincts, which , from here, looks the same.

 

[mhouse]

Not Too Hard To Do

Yes, but the original iPod came out when the market was fresh and nobody knew exactly what a good HD player was or what it could offer in terms of interface. A flash based iPod can't really be revolutionary at this point. They're going into a maturing market, so people already have an idea of whether this is a good idea or not. There are lots of good flash based players out already. Much different situation.

Yes and no. A flash-based iPod absolutely can be revolutionary and the market, though marginally more mature that the HD-based market was when the the original iPod debuted, is far from mature in a business sense.

The vast majority of folks, that aren't into tech like we are, probably don't own a 'digital music player' of any kind and certainly have no clue what a 'flash-based digital music player' is. Just add the numbers...Apple has sold, what 10 million iPods? Add another 15 million of all other brands of digital music players (and I think that's being generous). 25 million isn't a drop in the global bucket for a product as potentially ubiquitous as a music player.

All Apple *has* to do is shrink the iPod mini slightly, slap varying sizes of flash memory (non-replacable would be my guess; though someone will hack that inside of a week), and they have *finished* the digital music business. They will own it.

Now, hopefully, they'll do something more than that, but that is all that is necessary.

 

[AidenShaw]

Interesting that Steve Jobs has publically derided small capacity flash-RAM MP3 players on a number of occasions, and now is planning to offer one of his own.

And when the "makeup mirror" iMac G4 was introduced, the Lord God Jobs said how stupid it would be to put the computer on the back of the LCD screen....

Then came the iMac G5, with the computer on the back of the LCD screen.

The man is without honour, totally without honour....

 

[AirUncleP]

2 miles into a marathon my ipod locked up on me. Do you know how bad a feeling that is? A flash based iPod would be my preference as a runner. Lighter, less likely to have a problem.