Is Apple doomed?

[d5aqoëp]

So far you have ignored points that counter your original post so why would you expect others to extend you a courtesy you won't extend them?

You have yet to make any case at all as to why Apple would be forced to do anything by "market conditions".

You have yet to explain why Apple would pivot their entire company over to AI and forcing people to rent cloud computing.

You have yet to explain how Apple would even do such a thing given their focus has never been on that and they don't have the heavy hitting talent in those areas to do that.

You haven't pointed to a single thing Apple has done that shows they are heading down this path.

So you haven’t even understood my main point. I don’t want them to pivot towards AI. Because of AI and cloud computing instances, Apple faces a real threat to their hardware business. Once people are used to running things on cloud and ordering compute power online, Apple’s hardware specs will have no relevance. Who would want to spend $1500 on hardware when they can rent compute as per their requirements? Once that happens to regular computers, our mobile phones will follow the same suit. This is where Apple might have to pivot towards thin client manufacturing and that’s where the cookie crumbles. Less money from hardware business. Apple would be forced to adapt or become irrelevant.

I sincerely hope I am wrong about this. ☹️

I also get it that initially, cloud instances will be dirt cheap subscriptions. When Big-Tech companies have taken out every single hardware manufacturer out of the market, then it will be a proper money squeeze where it would be more costlier than owning the powerful hardware itself. Just like how monopolies/duopolies work. But that is for after 5-10 years.

 

[teh_hunterer]

So you haven’t even understood my main point. I don’t want them to pivot towards AI. Because of AI and cloud computing instances, Apple faces a real threat to their hardware business. Once people are used to running things on cloud and ordering compute power online, Apple’s hardware specs will have no relevance. Who would want to spend $1500 on hardware when they can rent compute as per their requirements? Once that happens to regular computers, our mobile phones will follow the same suit. This is where Apple might have to pivot towards thin client manufacturing and that’s where the cookie crumbles. Less money from hardware business. Apple would be forced to adapt or become irrelevant.

You might have convinced yourself that these things are logical or likely, but you've done nothing to convince others. You're vividly imagining a future and skipping any reasoning for why it would happen.

You have yet to make any case at all as to why Apple would be forced to do anything by "market conditions".

You have yet to explain why Apple would pivot their entire company over to AI and forcing people to rent cloud computing.

You have yet to explain how Apple would even do such a thing given their focus has never been on that and they don't have the heavy hitting talent in those areas to do that.

You haven't pointed to a single thing Apple has done that shows they are heading down this path.

 

[Ethosik]

The success of games like Stardew Valley and Balatro against billion dollar failures suggests that the wider gaming buying public does not see the benefit in a continuing gaming arms race. I mean next gen games look lovely and all but I can’t say I’ve played many PS5 games that look that much better than PS4 titles. They managed to wring Forbidden West out of the last gen and it still looks better than every game on the Xbox.

On the other hand I suppose via Spotify and Netflix the public have been used to not owning things for a while now. I guess gaming isn’t too far away from that future either.

Personally I hope that the government pass some sort of copyright laws allowing AI to scrape what they want. This will have three beneficial side effects:

1. It will mean that people can do the same to digital content making abandonware roms fair game, a fine alternative to being locked into a sub.

2. Artists will pivot to the physical realm where work cannot be AI scraped. Man I’d rather read a magazine than a website and it’s hard to hang a JPEG in your bathroom.

3. Social media will drown in so much slop that the platforms will collapse. Maybe we will rediscover the benefits of catching up over a coffee or beer instead of online?

While I agree with you (I have not really liked AAA gaming in a while, maybe a game here or there). However, the gaming industry is not based on Stardew Valley or Balatro. And gaming is where it starts. I foresee a time where Creative Cloud now becomes "Rent a server to perform the work for a monthly fee!" and other creative workflows.

If AAA gaming can be handled from the cloud, then productivity is the next step.

And I do not like where we are headed.

 

[Ethosik]

You have yet to make any case at all as to why Apple would be forced to do anything by "market conditions".

How about Micron? NVIDIA cutting consumer production? Yes Macs do not use NVIDIA, but it speaks to an industry change. SSDs and HDDs are anticipating increases too. Apple will need to do something for these market conditions.

Samsung considers shifting production from HBM to DDR after extreme price increases

After memory manufacturers massively switched to HBM memory production for AI workloads, Samsung is considering a reverse move.

itdaily.com

As DRAM Costs Soar, Prices For NVMe SSDs Start To Rise Too

Although not a massive increase, the prices for NVMe storage for PCs have started to go up in recent weeks.

www.pcmag.com

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/hdds/hdd-prices-spike-as-ai-infrastructure-and-chinas-pc-push-collide-hard-drives-record-biggest-price-increase-in-eight-quarters-suppliers-warn-pressure-will-continue

We are regressing

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/motherboards/gigabyte-unleashes-new-ddr4-am4-motherboards-as-ram-shortage-continues-to-slam-pc-builders-sky-high-ddr5-prices-spark-rush-for-affordable-alternatives

ASUS to increase DDR4 motherboard production - OC3D

ASUS reportedly plans to to increase DDR4 motherboard production in response to DDR5 memory price hikes. DDR4 remains affordable.

overclock3d.net

Memory crunch: Mid-range laptops may slide back to 8GB RAM, analyst warns

TrendForce says DDR5 RAM prices will soon result in reduced memory for default laptop configurations across the board...and higher prices, too.

www.pcworld.com

Apple will soon be priced out of the market entirely. I highly doubt Apple will eat the prices. Therefore, a base MacBook Air might now be $1,600 and not be worth it at all.

Oh, and this will impact phones and tablets too. Not just Macs. No new iPhone 18 this year rumor just shows how ridiculous this CURRENTLY is and will get much much MUCH worse.

 

[teh_hunterer]

Apple will soon be priced out of the market entirely.

That kind of hyperbole is funny, but it's not accurate. Apple likely has enough manufacturing contracts lined up with the likes of Samsung and TSMC to be largely unaffected by the market conditions of the next year or so. By then, prices will likely start to trend back downwards anyway.

You also have to have crypto bro levels of blind belief in AI to think that bubble isn't going to burst at some point. (It will).

 

[d5aqoëp]

Love it how people here seem to laugh it off. I used to too. But this time it’s really serious.

 

[Ethosik]

That kind of hyperbole is funny, but it's not accurate. Apple likely has enough manufacturing contracts lined up with the likes of Samsung and TSMC to be largely unaffected by the market conditions of the next year or so. By then, prices will likely start to trend back downwards anyway.

You also have to have crypto bro levels of blind belief in AI to think that bubble isn't going to burst at some point. (It will).

Nope. I just saw an article that Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix that they are reevaluating their B2B contracts this year for a 50% increase.

 

[Ethosik]

Love it how people here seem to laugh it off. I used to too. But this time it’s really serious.

It won't just be Apple. If this trend continues it will be the death of all affordable computing and impact every device downstream as well.

No iPhone 18 this year is just the start for Apple.

 

[d5aqoëp]

No iPhone 18 this year is just the start for Apple.

Isn’t it obvious? They don’t have enough RAM and NAND chips for this year so they put them in their most popular line of products which fetches them max profits. I would not be surprised if iPhone 18 series is totally scrapped in favour of Fold or ultra thin Air 2.

 

[d5aqoëp]

That kind of hyperbole is funny, but it's not accurate. Apple likely has enough manufacturing contracts lined up with the likes of Samsung and TSMC to be largely unaffected by the market conditions of the next year or so. By then, prices will likely start to trend back downwards anyway.

You also have to have crypto bro levels of blind belief in AI to think that bubble isn't going to burst at some point. (It will).

LMAO how naive of you to believe things will go back to normal. All the companies hoarding hardware for AI also have multiple backup plans to keep the shortage of hardware alive. Cloud computing is one of them.

Only if China somehow manages to steal TSMC tech to make their own chips at 3nm or lower process, things might somewhat change for good.

 

[teh_hunterer]

Nope. I just saw an article that Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix that they are reevaluating their B2B contracts this year for a 50% increase.

Even then, Apple is in the best position of any company to weather these price increases, and the idea they of all companies will be "priced out of the market" is ridiculous.

LMAO how naive of you to believe things will go back to normal. All the companies hoarding hardware for AI also have multiple backup plans to keep the shortage of hardware alive. Cloud computing is one of them.

Only if China somehow manages to steal TSMC tech to make their own chips at 3nm or lower process, things might somewhat change for good.

Will you agree to come back here and admit it when they do? It's telling that you respond to that but you don't respond to anyone when they actually drill down into your points.

 

[Charliebird]

actual doom scrolling here

 

[d5aqoëp]

Even then, Apple is in the best position of any company to weather these price increases, and the idea they of all companies will be "priced out of the market" is ridiculous.



Will you agree to come back here and admit it when they do? It's telling that you respond to that but you don't respond to anyone when they actually drill down into your points.

I have already said that I would be more than glad to be proved wrong. In fact, I am hoping to be proved wrong.

You on the other hand won't be there to even comment. lol

 

[teh_hunterer]

I have already said that I would be more than glad to be proved wrong. In fact, I am hoping to be proved wrong.

You on the other hand won't be there to even comment. lol

Care to explain?

 

[Ethosik]

Will you agree to come back here and admit it when they do? It's telling that you respond to that but you don't respond to anyone when they actually drill down into your points.

We never saw MSRP go down with GPUs after the crypto craze in 2020/2021. MSRP here NOT scalpers. You honestly think the RTX 5090 will go back down to $2,000 after the jump to $5,000 (rumored price)? You honestly expect Micron to come back to us consumers? Neither will happen.

I don't speak for the others, but I am more than willing to admit I was wrong. We are all speculating here. I hope I am wrong. I highly doubt I am wrong though. But businesses don't normally operate this way, especially lately.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Except you cannot counter my points explaining why Apple will not be forced to change due to existing market conditions. We are too far deep in trouble than anyone wants to believe.

Um, one would think that you would understand the simple concept that every business entity is "forced to change due to existing market conditions." Apple's extraordinary success proves that they are better at it than most.

 

[eyoungren]

What makes Apple devices uniquely empowering is the way they unleash your potential to do things you never thought possible. They are tools, but tools that give you the confidence and capabilities to do your very best work. Apple is the most empowering company in human history.

Yes. I never thought I'd be able to come up with all the workarounds I needed to be using a PowerMac G5 Quad up in to May 2020. But Apple empowered me with the creativity to push my Mac to that limit.

OCLP and the whole series of patchers before that were certainly not a thought at some early point to make Intel Macs run modern versions of MacOS. All that was Apple empowerment.

Although I'm pretty sure Apple would have preferred everyone using this stuff to just buy a new Mac rather than feeling empowered by them to make it work.

 

[eyoungren]

I am quite shocked to notice people living in their own personal bubbles and behaving as oblivious as a butterfly. The Big-Tech is changing more rapidly than what we can imagine. The next 5 years will be “make or break” for humanity with possibly big changes to how we use our personal computers.

As some are predicting what if Apple is forced to change due to market conditions? If we are left with thin clients, it will dilute importance of forums like Macrumors and supporting ecosystem. Some will dismiss it as fear mongering but this is some intuition I am getting if the AI bubble doesn’t pop.

Next you will suggest that Apple is going to raid our homes, remove our old computers and force us to use thin clients.

I mean really…we can't continue to use what we already have?

 

[d5aqoëp]

Um, one would think that you would understand the simple concept that every business entity is "forced to change due to existing market conditions." Apple's extraordinary success proves that they are better at it than most.

Exactly. Apple would adapt in ways you, me and most here would not like.

Next you will suggest that Apple is going to raid our homes, remove our old computers and force us to use thin clients.

I mean really…we can't continue to use what we already have?

You are taking it too far. Ofcourse you will continue to use what you have. But will that last you more than 10 years?
Heck it's a bonus if it works beyond 5 years. Computers of today are not so well built like they were few years ago.

 

[eyoungren]

You are taking it too far. Ofcourse you will continue to use what you have. But will that last you more than 10 years?
Heck it's a bonus if it works beyond 5 years. Computers of today are not so well built like they were few years ago.

No, I am not taking it too far. You seem to be suggesting that there will be no other option.

I used a PM Quad G5 up until May 2020. On Leopard 10.5.8!

From 2004 to 2018 I put out a weekly newspaper including ads, pagination, classifieds, legals and special sections using PowerMacs.

My current job had me using a 2015 MBP from 2019 to 2023 running High Sierra. We only just updated to M2s two years ago.

I'll probably buy an M1 Mini at some point and continue until I decide what to do next. Linux could be in the future. And Linux runs on PowerPC and Intel Macs, of which I have plenty.

There is nothing I do at home that requires some current model with the fastest processor and oodles of ram. My iPhone is the 11 Pro Max. Not even 5G! It runs iOS 26. When I upgrade it will probably be to the iPhone 15PM or 16PM. So I'm covered there.

What I think you are not seeing is how adaptable and creative people can get to make things work for themselves when they have to (or want to).

 

[JMalone]

With current electronics shortage and all the major companies like Microsoft, Google, Nvidia pushing for cloud based subscription system, it really feels like Apple is caught pants down, dead last. Do they have any plans to tackle this ****storm? TBH, I get jitters just to use a dumb terminal with screen, kb, mouse and internet to stream your virtualised OS. Your data where each pdf, docx, jpg, png or any file belongs to Cloud service provider.

Apple is my only hope but how long do you guys think can Apple sustain these hardware product launches if OpenAI, MS, Google, Oracle, Anthropic, etc, etc keep on gobbling up every piece of components of this world? What if this bubble is somehow sustaining for another 10 years? Apple’s AI is a big failure and it seems like Apple has already missed that bus.

Virtual computing and cloud computing has been possible for over 25 years. Dumb terminals much older.

No, dumb terminals are not going to be mainstream.

Anyone who believes dumb terminals will be mainstream doesn’t understand computers or computer users.

Anyone who believes dumb terminals will be mainstream is terminally dumb.

 

[teh_hunterer]

We never saw MSRP go down with GPUs after the crypto craze in 2020/2021. MSRP here NOT scalpers. You honestly think the RTX 5090 will go back down to $2,000 after the jump to $5,000 (rumored price)? You honestly expect Micron to come back to us consumers? Neither will happen.

I agree with you here, but I'm talking about the costs of manufacturing that Apple has to deal with, not saying other companies will stop screwing the customer.

 

[JMalone]

We never saw MSRP go down with GPUs after the crypto craze in 2020/2021.

MSRP no but used prices we did. My RTX 3090 in almost new condition was $800 after the craze. During the craze it was $2500.

When there is massive supply hitting the used markets then it drives prices down and makes way for the new products.

 

[d5aqoëp]

Yes we did. My RTX 3090 in almost new condition was $800 after the craze. During the craze it was $2500.

That was because RTX 4090 was almost 70% faster than 3090 for similar price.

 

[JMalone]

That was because RTX 4090 was almost 70% faster than 3090 for similar price.

I was editing the post while you replied.