The cost/benefit analysis is never really going to match up for an individual when buying electronic warranty plans. Paying $129 to cover a device that costs between $649 and $949 is assuming there is somewhere between a 13-20% chance you'll need to replace your phone when you aren't eligible to upgrade/trade-in. Add in the $99 incident cost and you're now assuming there is between a 25-35% chance that you will need to replace your phone.
The reason the policies are priced such as they are is because an actuary already knows that, using the law of large numbers, the claims rate is somewhere around 10-15%. Knowing this, they price the policy where you're paying odds of 25-35% and Apple makes a handsome 15-20% profit (or about $20-25) off of every AppleCare plan they sell.
I won't even get into running the numbers based on type of damage happens to the phone. If it's a cracked screen, then you are MUCH better off without insurance and just paying the repair cost without AppleCare. If you believe there's a greater than 25-35% chance of water damage (depending on model) killing your device, then and only then would it make sense for you to buy AppleCare.