So, correct me if I'm wrong here, but the most likely form of damage is the screen or back cracking after a drop or some accidental impact.
If the back breaks, you can replace it yourself for about $30 max.
If the screen breaks it costs about $80 for a 3rd party place to fix it (does Apple charge $200?)
This will be my 3rd iPhone and I've never damaged my first two. If I had bought Apple care+ (had it existed) for all three I'd be out $300 so far. I figure if something happens to this one, I've got $300 in credit saved up.
All that said, I think it really depends on how you are with phones, and how long you typically keep them.
Now where the heck is the UPS guy!??
Exactly. Although with Applecare, I think (assuming and I could be wrong) they would cover things like water damage and whatnot, so if you drop the phone in a puddle you aren't completely screwed.
I could almost justify it with a computer as the parts are more expensive, but then again you could also just "fix" whatever's broken, if it breaks (hard drive, etc.)