iTunes Countdown to 100 Million

[BevvyB]

If you guys want to know the kind of strategy required to make something like iTunes work, check out eBay.

It takes years and years to dominate, then years to consolidate, and then more to break even. However, there is now only eBay. So in the scheme of things, 5-10 years is nothing, considering you're gambling on being the main dominant force in an entire industry.

The faster Apple can make money on iTunes the better.

 

[MCCFR]

I am that nerd…

ok, so who's going to keep track and give us daily, weekly and trends charts?
how about a widget itunes ticker? and while you're at it, can you make me one for folding@home?

I have a spreadsheet with all the major announcements and proclaimations, and I'm keeping an eye on the counter every two hours or so.

Between 14:45 BST and 21:15, Apple sold 174,292 songs at an average of 446.9 downloads/minute. The busiest spell seems to have been a 15 minute period around 16:00 BST, when they were moving 627 tracks/minute. However, it is pretty constantly between 440 and 470 tracks/minute which is hell of a pace - equivalent to having around 20 stores with four checkouts each running constantly.

 

[MrToast]

Awesome little app.

So is there a way to put the counter up in the menu bar?
Is there someone out there that could help MrToast if this can't be done with this app?

Where is the custom icon? (5 minutes to write app....3 hours to design cool icon) just kidding...

Thanks!!!!

Hahahahahaha....

Well, I don't know of a way for REALbasic to create menu extras, unless somebody has some sick mad nasty plugin that I don't know about.

And I did all this from my computer at work, where I have a demo license of REALbasic and not much else (no graphics programs except MS Paint ). That's why I had Seth (visit! buy!) compile them for me.

When I get home from work I'll spiffy it up. Maybe make it graph stuff out and do projections and whatnot.

Thanks!

MrToast

 

[frem001]

Oh Pease like that stood a chance

Suck on that Dell! Looks like the DJ rebate for old iPod deal has met its match!

Dell lost that when a speck of dust fell in my ipod yesterday

 

[gwangung]

If you guys want to know the kind of strategy required to make something like iTunes work, check out eBay.

Or Amazon....

It takes years and years to dominate, then years to consolidate, and then more to break even. However, there is now only eBay. So in the scheme of things, 5-10 years is nothing, considering you're gambling on being the main dominant force in an entire industry.

The faster Apple can make money on iTunes the better.

Think folks should pay attention to this. There's a certain amount of proprietariness, particularly in the early years, as the market decides what matters to it. That's why the push to include other formats and players is far too premature; don't think it makes business right now.

 

[DMann]

up-date counter

the song count doesn't seem to dynamically update, unless there's several hours between each song purchase. hehe. Apple would be smart to put a dynamically updated counter on there, or atleast once-per-hour update...because once it gets real close, they'll see a HUGE explosion of song purchases for people trying to win the iPod.

Perhaps Apple figures that without the counter, a more continuous
stream will pour in. You are right, however, if there were a counter,
the sales would surge toward the 100,000 marks.

 

[frankly]

while you programming gurus are at it, can you give me a hand picking some numbers for this?
http://www.galottery.com/

it's up to $290M, so if you give me the correct numbers, i'll be more than happy to split it.

and if i win the lottery, i'll buy the remaining songs to get to 100M on iTMS, just so i can have my smiling, obscenely rich mug on apple.com and so i can make my celebrity playlist (which would have to be $ongs themed w/ money).

Don't you think if we could write a program to pick lottery numbers we would have done it already?

Later, Frank

 

[frankly]

Looks like the avg. rate is around 4,000+- songs every 5 mins.

The lowest being around 3,000 songs every 5 mins.

The highest being around 5,000 songs every 5 mins.

Just bought 2 songs.

94,628,050 so far.

You should check your math. The average since the announcement is a little over 2000 songs per 5 minutes.

Frank

 

[michaelrjohnson]

Perhaps Apple figures that without the counter, a more continuous
stream will pour in. You are right, however, if there were a counter,
the sales would surge toward the 100,000 marks.

...and that would be a bad thing... how?

Apple is going to give the prizes away no matter how fast they sell (relativley). So if there's a big push, it's just closer to the next mark, and more $$ taken in.

 

[rDLr]

Album covers

I've already found 3 albums I want to buy just from clicking on the album cover adds on the Apple homepage! The addidction.....must.....stop.....

Is there ITMS Anonymous yet?

 

[ITR 81]

You should check your math. The average since the announcement is a little over 2000 songs per 5 minutes.

Frank

How?

Using the now available http://itunescounter.ruud.org/ graph.

We can see the high point to be around 4,800 per 5 mins
We can also see the low point around 2,100 per 5 mins
4800 + 2100 = 6900
6900/2 = 3,450 per 5 mins

 

[DMann]

No Guarantee

I wonder if anyone will take a chance and just buy songs like crazy, say 1000 of them, in hopes of getting the $14,000 prize. If only you could add a bunch of songs to a shopping cart then buy them all at once.

Internet time/accuracy is way to variable to take
a chance like that. Sure, you'll have 1,000 songs,
but chances are increased slightly, at the most.
Even bidding on e-bay with a fraction of competition
proves to be a challenge.

 

[michaelrjohnson]

I dont' think they'res any feasible way to "plan" a winning... I think, despite how hard anyone tries, its as much of a crap-shoot as anything.

 

[frankly]

How?

Using the now available http://itunescounter.ruud.org/ graph.

We can see the high point to be around 4,800 per 5 mins
We can also see the low point around 2,100 per 5 mins
4800 + 2100 = 6900
6900/2 = 3,450 per 5 mins

Very simple, don't depend on that graph since it isn't accurate. I got my numbers directly from Apple's website.

11:45am.....94,561,821 sold
5:45pm......94,730,827 sold

6 hours passed, 169,006 sold
469 per minute
2347 per 5 minutes

Check for yourself. Also, look at what everyone in this forum besides the graph guy has been calculating as well.

Later, Frank

 

[rhix]

Count data

Well, before I finished reading the whole thread, I got the idea of writing a perl script that would fetch the stats as they come up. It's quite a dirty script, so I won't bother you with the sources (if someone really wants them, you can email me). Every 30 seconds it checks the new total, and logs it to a file. The file can be found at:

http://rick.particleproductions.ca/itmspromo.dat

Just refresh when you want new data. It's not in CSV or anything fancy, but writing a script to convert it would be a sinch. Thought some of you may like having the data, hopefully it's of some use.

 

[whooleytoo]

Where's Automator when you need it???

 

[Gooberdude]

515 Songs Per Minute

I have been tracking since 10:30 PST
Average since this 1st post @ 9:04 EST is 515 per minute.
With Highs of 800 +

Currently Apple has sold 94,735,227
leaving only 264,773 till 95,000,000
approximatly 8.5 hours to go.

11P.M. PST


WOO HOO Prizes tomarrow maybe
Gooberdude

 

[frankly]

I have been tracking since 10:30 PST
Average since this 1st post @ 9:04 EST is 515 per minute.
With Highs of 800 +

Currently Apple has sold 94,735,227
leaving only 264,773 till 95,000,000
approximatly 8.5 hours to go.

11P.M. PST


WOO HOO Prizes tomarrow maybe
Gooberdude

Man, our school system is in bad shape.

9:04am 94,496,906
6:10pm 94,743,056
Total sold: 246,150
Total minutes: 546
Songs per minute: 450.82
Per 5 minutes: 2254

Frank

 

[backspinner]

Just another (very basic) live graph:
http://itunescount.tijdweb.nl

 

[DMann]

Very C0ool!!!

Hahahahahaha....

Well, I don't know of a way for REALbasic to create menu extras, unless somebody has some sick mad nasty plugin that I don't know about.

And I did all this from my computer at work, where I have a demo license of REALbasic and not much else (no graphics programs except MS Paint ). That's why I had Seth (visit! buy!) compile them for me.

When I get home from work I'll spiffy it up. Maybe make it graph stuff out and do projections and whatnot.

Thanks!

MrToast

Thank you, again!!

 

[DMann]

Don't Fret

Man, our school system is in bad shape.

9:04am 94,496,906
6:10pm 94,743,056
Total sold: 246,150
Total minutes: 546
Songs per minute: 450.82
Per 5 minutes: 2254

Frank

Sometimes, takes a while for purchases
to register.....

 

[ruud]

Very simple, don't depend on that graph since it isn't accurate. I got my numbers directly from Apple's website.

11:45am.....94,561,821 sold
5:45pm......94,730,827 sold

6 hours passed, 169,006 sold
469 per minute
2347 per 5 minutes

Check for yourself. Also, look at what everyone in this forum besides the graph guy has been calculating as well.

Later, Frank

your number of 2347 per 5 minutes agrees with what my graph shows (about 8 per second).

the problem with the graph is the fact that apple doesn't update the numbers on the whole-hour mark, which causes a zero rate followed by a spike. but on average, the rate is correct and in agreement with your numbers.

 

[backspinner]

oh by the way, on http://itunescount.tijdweb.nl you can also find the raw data, in case you do want to do some crunching...

 

[m.r.m.]

Umm.. pretty much every student with a U.S. mailing address if the numbers the credit card companies tout (and then complain about re: defaulting) are to be believed.

not in germany. i pay all my bills via online bank transfer. i don't have a steady income. tough luck trying to get a credit card. we have the standard bank card (ec-card) which works in many european countries, but not in itunes music store.

 

[Dave00]

Isn't it odd to prominently advertise a promotion and not post the official rules at the same time, especially considering how close they are to 95 million?

In my opinion, if "no purchase" is indeed necessary, people downloading a free tune should be eligible to win. Sending an entry in by "snail mail" doesn't seem to make sense, as others have pointed out.

They are treading on rather thin legal ice if a winner is named before official rules are posted and a method for winning without buying is announced.

The entry-by-mail method makes sense in that it is the method by which almost every contest of this kind allows non-purchasers to play. Using a free download as a way to enter without paying would virtually guarantee a non-paying winner. It also would exclude alot of people (anyone who can't setup iTunes or who doesn't want to give their credit card number to apple, for instance) which again is a little shakey legally.

--D