Originally posted by Lancetx
You're not including the 100 Million songs that will be given out starting in February thru the Pepsi promo.
In my view, Steve wasn't really clear in saying those "counted" towards the 100MM sold goal. My interpretation (which may be wrong) was that those giveaways didn't count directly towards the goal (it is not likely at all that Apple will make a profit off those; Apple only gets $.30/song revenue as it is (and Steve specifically said that the labels like this promotion because they're getting paid; I doubt this is a Record Label Charity Event), and I don't think Pepsi's footing the full bill there). However, it is expected that most users will get one free song and purchase one or two more once they try it out.
Also, remember that the majority of users who get the winning caps won't redeem them, for various reasons. Those include:
1) They didn't look at their cap to begin with (throw-aways).
2) They don't understand what to do with it.
3) They don't have a broadband connection to get iTMS with (and, really, if this is their first encounter with iTMS, a dialup user is not likely to take the 20MB download AND suffer through iTMS navigation over dialup).
4) They just plain don't want the music, or they think there is some catch somewhere, like Apple taking all their personal information and selling it to the highest bidder (especially since it is a Well Known Fact that Apple is perpetually no more than six months of going bankrupt and selling all its assets anyways!)
5) They don't have a computer.
6) They have a computer but are afraid of it, especially afraid of installing new software.
7) They are already avid users of the iTMS, in which case they'll use their one free song, but it might be countered by a loss of a paid sale.