KGI: Improved iPhone X Shipping Estimates Due to Better-Than-Expected Production, Not Weak Demand

[NMSUballa]

Whaha - all those returners paying "restocking fees".
Apparently those phones are sold as new again.
Apple should pay those customers "waiting line reduction fees" instead
And offer the rest "notched pixel discounts", btw
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This is not how stock markets work. Apple stock is fairly fixed and hardly follows its mkt cap - whatever news there is. Implying that shareholders profit far less than the company itself.
Something is not working there as it should, really.

There is less risk with Apple but it does follow the market cap lately. I think it will stay around $175 until the next conference call. Everyone is waiting to see just how many iPhone X’s were purchased. If the 1-2 week wait is from making too many then it will drop quite a bit. If demand is actually high then Apple will come awfully close to the trillion dollar mark.
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Stock price in and of itself does not indicate whether or not a company is a good value.

Anyway, supply ramped up a lot faster than I expected. Either the analysts were wrong about supply constraints or demand really isn’t as strong. Who knows. We’ll find out soon. You do have to figure that some people are turned off by the lack of a home button and by Face ID. Most people won’t bother to read up on this stuff the way people here do. I saw a couple of people over the weekend who had no interest because they couldn’t figure out how to use the phone without a home button. So it’s actualy a great thing that Apple kept the 8 and 8 Plus around.

Apple is one of the few companies where you don’t have to worry going into a conference call. As an investor of different companies, I have noticed if a company hits it out of the park then the stock goes up 5%. If it doesn’t do well then it goes down 20-25%. Apple has so much money in the stock that it takes a ton to make it drop that much in a day. That being said, there next conference call will be the most anticipated in years when we get a glimpse at how well the X has really done.
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Yup, that's why comparing one's portfolio to indexes using standardized metrics that analyze the return relative to the risk (volatility) makes so much sense. The Sharpe ratio is a pretty standard one. More advanced models will "decompose" a portfolio's returns into parts and see what's leftover. If it's positive, then you (maybe) have some alpha. So even in an up market, the question is how you perform relative to those benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis.

On Buffett: exactly. This is part of what I tried to explain to the guy in the other thread. He is for some strange reason convinced that Buffett doesn't do fundamental analysis, despite that being discussed in virtually every book about Buffett on the planet, including the one by Mary Buffett herself. And he's under some illusion that Buffett picked Apple because he just "liked it" and "it was cheap," which is more BS. One of my favorite Buffett quotes debunks that silliness: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Lastly, those stocks you mentioned are certainly expensive. But that doesn't mean by corollary that Apple is "cheap." I ran a bunch of numbers on this in the other thread. Multiples such as Price to FCF, FCF/EV, EBITDA/EV, and Price to Book all put Apple in the middle of the pack among US equities. Even using PE, Apple isn't even in the top 20% of the Russell 3000.

Everything is relative. The word "cheap" implies relativity; it is meaningless without comparisons or a baseline. But no matter how you slice it, it's hard to make the case that Apple looks "cheap." Reasonable? Definitely. On the cheaper end of the spectrum? In some models, sure. Room to grow? Very possibly. "Cheap by any measure," which is what that guy laughably said repeatedly? Demonstrably false.

Perhaps you and I are just having a semantic discussion here on definitions and are in total agreeemnt. If so that's totally cool! That just wasn't what was happening with Baywatch or whatever his name is.

I agree that it is relative and that is what I like about the stock market. If any given model worked all the time then everyone would be billionaires. I thought Amazon was too expensive around $600 and I have lost out on 100% returns. I thought NFLX was too back when they changed the names of the different services and their stock cratered. I didn’t think people would forget as quickly as they did and the stock would skyrocket ever since.

I thought the market as a whole was too expensive and I thought the presidential race would bring it back to earth. That didn’t happen either. Eventually, I decided I didn’t like seeing it go up while being out of the market and got back in and have made about 40% so far.

I believe Apple is cheap and they still have room to grow with the stock price. You will want to wait until the next conference call though. That will show the future and how well the X has done. Personally, I really like the phone and don’t mind the swiping up. It wasn’t hard to get used to. I don’t mind the notch either. It beats having a top bezel like the S8.

 

[john123]

I agree that it is relative and that is what I like about the stock market. If any given model worked all the time then everyone would be billionaires. I thought Amazon was too expensive around $600 and I have lost out on 100% returns. I thought NFLX was too back when they changed the names of the different services and their stock cratered. I didn’t think people would forget as quickly as they did and the stock would skyrocket ever since.

I thought the market as a whole was too expensive and I thought the presidential race would bring it back to earth. That didn’t happen either. Eventually, I decided I didn’t like seeing it go up while being out of the market and got back in and have made about 40% so far.

I believe Apple is cheap and they still have room to grow with the stock price. You will want to wait until the next conference call though. That will show the future and how well the X has done. Personally, I really like the phone and don’t mind the swiping up. It wasn’t hard to get used to. I don’t mind the notch either. It beats having a top bezel like the S8.

I think some of the disagreement (other than from that Baywatch dude) has to do with what the word "cheap" means. Does the stock potentially have room to grow? There is absolutely a case to be made that it does.

Is it pretty undervalued relative to most stocks in the market? The math says no. They'd need some crazy growth factor for that to be the case.

 

[NMSUballa]

I think some of the disagreement (other than from that Baywatch dude) has to do with what the word "cheap" means. Does the stock potentially have room to grow? There is absolutely a case to be made that it does.

Is it pretty undervalued relative to most stocks in the market? The math says no. They'd need some crazy growth factor for that to be the case.

I think it’s cheap compared to other large companies. Facebook is more expensive and doesn’t bring in the type of revenue/profit that Apple does. Amazon brings in zero profit but keeps going up. The same with Tesla. Churchill Downs is 50% more expensive than Apple and they count on one day a year to bring in most of their revenue. Google doesn’t do the number of stock splits that Apple has but I still find them to be rather expensive. I think the market as a whole is expensive though. It won’t surprise me if a big dip comes our way.

 

[Baymowe335]

Ho, hum...another day, another day all iPhone X sold out At Apple Retail in the US and Canada after all stores had stock this morning.

 

[bunnicula]

As critical as I am about the iPhone X and Apple as of the last few years, I have never once stated the iPhone X is a bad phone. It is a nice phone. Just not where it should be, and especially not for that price. I still stand by one of my earlier statements that I feel that this isn't the phone that Apple wanted to release. This thing screams incomplete, rushed, unfinished, and Beta device to me.

What are some of these groundbreaking features I may have overlooked? I have watched hours upon hours of iphone reviews, positive and negative, used the phone, and read numerous articles, and nothing about the phone really excites me much. Maybe I'm harder to impress. There is numerous current tech absent on their FLAGSHIP DEVICE! No thanks Apple, you failed in my eyes when you've had about 4 years in development with this phone and it's still feels rushed and unfinished.

Well, let me ask you this...what, exactly, do you think it should have?

 

[IJ Reilly]

I think it’s cheap compared to other large companies. Facebook is more expensive and doesn’t bring in the type of revenue/profit that Apple does. Amazon brings in zero profit but keeps going up. The same with Tesla. Churchill Downs is 50% more expensive than Apple and they count on one day a year to bring in most of their revenue. Google doesn’t do the number of stock splits that Apple has but I still find them to be rather expensive. I think the market as a whole is expensive though. It won’t surprise me if a big dip comes our way.

AMZN remains a market darling because they are capitalizing and growing the top line like crazy. Tesla pretty much the same thing but the case for survivability is much more in doubt. Stock splits have of course absolutely no impact on valuation. As for the horses, I don’t play them.

Big dips are always coming our way. Keep on predicting one and for sure you will be right, eventually.

 

[NMSUballa]

AMZN remains a market darling because they are capitalizing and growing the top line like crazy. Tesla pretty much the same thing but the case for survivability is much more in doubt. Stock splits have of course absolutely no impact on valuation. As for the horses, I don’t play them.

Big dips are always coming our way. Keep on predicting one and for sure you will be right, eventually.

I can be like Kuo! Just say the market will crash in one post and then say “reports have changed. The market will go up” in another. Haha

I bought TSLA stock when it was $200 and sold for a 7% loss. It hasn’t been that low since then.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I can be like Kuo! Just say the market will crash in one post and then say “reports have changed. The market will go up” in another. Haha

I bought TSLA stock when it was $200 and sold for a 7% loss. It hasn’t been that low since then.

That's what you get for playing the horses. Speaking of which, I didn't know anything about Churchill Downs, Inc., so I had a look. They own numerous race tracks, casinos, and resorts. They are in fact a pretty large and diverse gaming company. But just the same I am still not playing those horses.

Never heard Kuo make any kind such prediction. Perhaps you can enlighten.

 

[NMSUballa]

That's what you get for playing the horses. Speaking of which, I didn't know anything about Churchill Downs, Inc., so I had a look. They own numerous race tracks, casinos, and resorts. They are in fact a pretty large and diverse gaming company. But just the same I am still not playing those horses.

Never heard Kuo make any kind such prediction. Perhaps you can enlighten.

I was kidding because of lot of Macrumors say that analysts will make guesses on both ends of the spectrum so that they are eventually right.

That is true about Churchill but a large portion of their revenue comes from the Kentucky Derby. Tickets for that day are insane and people pay for it. The majority of seats sold make you buy a license for the entire box. You are on a 3-5 year contract and you have to buy the season tickets to be able to have the Derby tickets. On normal weekends, they also have races and that is what you have to buy. If you wanted an area near the finish line, it was $75,000 for the 3 years but the box does fit 6 people. The go up to around $150,000 or so.

 

[mactactic]

Well it’s good to know you’re biting the hand that feeds. I’m enjoying my iPhone X tremendously. Sorry you feel differently. Good luck, hopefully you find peace.

I can tell you with knowledge this was not the best design , but was the cheapest!

 

[john123]

I can tell you with knowledge this was not the best design , but was the cheapest!

I'll bite. What was a more expensive design alternative?