KGI: Improved iPhone X Shipping Estimates Due to Better-Than-Expected Production, Not Weak Demand

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Steady improvements in iPhone X supplies that have seen shipping estimates fall to 1-2 weeks are due to better-than-expected improvements in production since the device's launch, rather than any weakness demand, according to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who shared the information in a new research report obtained by MacRumors.


According to Kuo, who frequently shares accurate information from Apple's supply chain, iPhone X production issues "have been well addressed" in recent weeks, with Foxconn's production now at 450,000-550,000 units per day compared to just 50,000-150,000 a month or two ago as Apple geared up to launch the device.

Two of the primary bottlenecks that contributed to tight supplies of the iPhone X have largely been resolved, according to Kuo, with Career quickly making up for lost time after Murata was unable to provide LTE antenna components as originally planned and LG Innotek and Sharp seeing improved yields for the dot projector module of the TrueDepth camera.
(1) Hon Hai's daily shipments of iPhone X have climbed to 450-550k units, up from 50-150k units 1-2 months ago; (2) shipments of Career's LCP LTE antenna will likely grow 100% MoM in both November and December; and (3) production yield of Dot projection module, made by LG Innotek (KR) and Sharp (JP), has moved quickly above 80-90% or higher from below 60% 1-2 months ago.
As a result of the improved production, Kuo believes iPhone X shipments in the fourth calendar quarter could be 10-20 percent higher than he previously estimated, with some orders previously estimated as shipping in the new year being pulled in and shipped before the end of the quarter. That acceleration means Kuo is predicting that iPhone X shipments in the first quarter of 2018 will be flat or slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter.

Apple's financial guidance for the current quarter points toward record performance, suggesting the company is confident any production troubles have been resolved and that demand for the high-end iPhone X will be strong throughout the quarter.

Article Link: KGI: Improved iPhone X Shipping Estimates Due to Better-Than-Expected Production, Not Weak Demand
 

prostetnic

macrumors newbie
Jun 2, 2017
19
6
This is great news. The average joe will want to play with it in store and then walk out with it. Unless there is enough supply for that only early adaptors and enthusiasts (like me) will get it.
 

Keness

macrumors member
Mar 14, 2003
80
286
Yes, but what do you expect them to say? Seriously....

This isn't a report from Apple themselves. (Where you're right, a certain amount of spin would be expected.) This is from a third party who tracks supply chain to find out what is happening "on the ground"... Most importantly, this guy is actually pretty decently accurate. His info is good most of the time.
 

Relentless Power

macrumors Nehalem
Jul 12, 2016
34,383
35,515
This is great news. The average joe will want to play with it in store and then walk out with it. Unless there is enough supply for that only early adaptors and enthusiasts (like me) will get it.

And with strengthening numbers for availability for the iPhone X, this is big for the upcoming holidays for Apple. For those who want an iPhone X, will have a better chance of finding one in store or have a much earlier ship date.
 

Keness

macrumors member
Mar 14, 2003
80
286
wonder when he got a full time job at Apple PR :p it's interesting how he is doing almost weekly updates now ...

He's shared negative information about Apple plenty of times, too. He's does this research for investors who are paying him for the accuracy of the information he provides, so they can decide where and how and when and how much to invest. Since a flagship iPhone launch is an absolutely critical time of year for potential Apple investors, it makes sense that he'd be putting out a lot of reports during that time.
 

MH01

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Feb 11, 2008
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He's shared negative information about Apple plenty of times, too. He's does this research for investors who are paying him for the accuracy of the information he provides, so they can decide where and how and when and how much to invest. Since a flagship iPhone launch is an absolutely critical time of year for potential Apple investors, it makes sense that he'd be putting out a lot of reports during that time.

I understand doing analysis and reports for investors that pay for the service. I'm referring to what seems like weekly updates to the public .

Also when dealing with investment , negative and positive information is both beneficial.

Interesting he says that production has improved from anything from 3 times to 10 times.... and yet he says shipments will improve 10-20% for the 4th quarter, so does that basically mean he knew what the ramp up was going to be ? If so he is saying supply has improved production by 10-20%
 
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Keness

macrumors member
Mar 14, 2003
80
286
He is the one who made everyone thought that we couldn't get the iPhone before 2018. What a revisionist.

Of course, because that was true at the time. Yields have apparently ramped better than expected, and now he is relaying that information. So why the snark towards him...?
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I understand doing analysis and reports for investors that pay for the service. I'm referring to what seems like weekly updates to the public .

He doesn't release them to the public, but they do always "get out".
 

Keness

macrumors member
Mar 14, 2003
80
286
Cool story Bro... meanwhile my two launchday orders, one at 12:03am and one at 12:07am, still haven’t arrived. On top of that I got an email TODAY from Apple saying my delivery time “may” be delayed. Ok, cool...

That's a bummer. I bought mine on November 3rd, well after launch, and I'm right on target for receiving it Dec 1st through 8th. It's already shipped. I was Verizon, 256GB, Space Gray... What did you order?
 
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MH01

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Feb 11, 2008
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He doesn't release them to the public, but they do always "get out".
Understood . Still don't understand how he has gone from 2018 predictions based on 4-5 delivery , to 1-2 weeks delivery when he has stated shipments will be 10-20% based on his analysis.... these phones sitting in the factory? Well that is not demand ...
 
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RevTEG

macrumors 65816
Oct 28, 2012
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That's a bummer. I bought mine on November 3rd, well after launch, and I'm right on target for receiving it Dec 1st through 8th. It's already shipped. I was Verizon, 256GB, Space Gray... What did you order?

12:03am was a no contract AT&T Spcae Gray, 256. 12:07am order was for for a no contract AT&T silver, 256. The Space Gray shipped on 11/15 from China. It stayed in Korea a few days. Tracking says it’s finally in the States. On the other side of the country from me. The Silver is still stuck in the “preparing” status.
 

usarioclave

macrumors 65816
Sep 26, 2003
1,447
1,506
This is a tremendously amazing production line.

500,000 iPhones a day
assuming 2 8-hour shifts, that's 31,250 an hour
520 iPhones a minute

All those components are tracked, so the correct IMEI, MAC addresses, etc are on the correct label that gets stuck on the correct box. All those components are registered to the secure enclave, or whatever the heck it is that tracks internal hardware serial numbers for the various phone components. All those phones are flashed, which probably takes the most time. The various parts and their origin are tracked, so they know which batches go into which phone.

This line is truly one of the the most amazing things that's ever been built by humanity.
 

Keness

macrumors member
Mar 14, 2003
80
286
12:03am was a no contract AT&T Spcae Gray, 256. 12:07am order was for for a no contract AT&T silver, 256. The Space Gray shipped on 11/15 from China. It stayed in Korea a few days. Tracking says it’s finally in the States. On the other side of the country from me. The Silver is still stuck in the “preparing” status.

I wonder if the "no contract" part was the kicker? I've been seeing people complain about the availability of them.
 

kyykesko

macrumors 6502
Nov 11, 2015
337
242
This is great news. The average joe will want to play with it in store and then walk out with it. Unless there is enough supply for that only early adaptors and enthusiasts (like me) will get it.

Here the average Joe has been able to do that right from the launch. Ordered mine late 1st, got shipping notification 2nd and picked up the phone at the launch day. Since then I've seen several locations having supply whenever I've checked. Still have to say the phone isn't worth the price. It's nice, sure, but 1500e nice? Hell no.
 
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