KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

[ssrij]

One thing you all seem to forget: Analyst sell and buy stock. What is good? Low stock so that they can buy it and sell it more expensively. So please, please do not believe everything they write. They just want to earn money like everyone else. And how do they push the stock down? Report about problems, and then sell the stock when it soars because of the great numbers.

That would come under market manipulation or insider trading which is illegal

 

[SwissGuy93]

That would come under market manipulation or insider trading which is illegal

Yes there would be a grey area, but don't forget: It's not insider trading if it isn't true. And to prove market manipulation would be very difficult. I know it's a far stretch but those guys do not report because they are so interested in Apple.

 

[lordofthereef]

Imagine this: 2 Mio. divided by 55 is 36363.4 units per Country. That would mean less than 10000 per SKU per country. That is just not going to happen.

For the sake of clarity, srock is never distributed evenly. For example, Switzerland (I picked that based on your SN ) is much much smaller than the US, so the likelihood they get the same unit allocation is, well, impossible. But I full understand what you are saying. It doesn't make a lot of sense to roll out in more countries than they ever have on a launch in the history of iPhone with less stock than they have had for a launch in at least half a decade.

 

[AlphaGuitarist]

It doesn't make a lot of sense to roll out in more countries than they ever have on a launch in the history of iPhone with less stock than they have had for a launch in at least half a decade.

Agreed 100%. For a smaller phone maker (LG, let's say), 2-3 million launch units is an impressive number. For Apple, this is straddling failed launch territory, especially with a 55 country release.

 

[Cryates]

For Apple, this is straddling failed launch territory, especially with a 55 country release.

Is it really though? We never really know how many iPhones are produced by launch. The record for a full pre-order weekend is 13mil, with orders being pushed out 2-3 months by the end of that weekend. Is it safe to assume that with pre-orders being pushed out that far that Apple hasn't even been able to meet demand by 50% on launch day in the past?

Really, 2-3mil launch day device shipments may not be as bad as we are led to believe, and maybe not be too far off from the previous iPhone releases. The iPhone 6S Plus itself reportedly only had 1.5-2.5mil ready by its launch day. There is a reason Apple gave themselves and extra six weeks with this release.

Apple has never once come out and said "we have this many shipments ready to go for launch day", so we really don't know how many they've shipped on launch days in the past. I stick to my guns that this will be not much different than past iPhone releases.

 

[geachy92]

That’s odd. My iPhone 7 doesn’t have a “physical” button. My iPhone 6S+ didn’t have one either.
The iPhone hasn’t had a “physical” button since the 6. The round spot in the glass doesn’t move and is the Taptic Engine Also controlled by software. Shut your phone off and see if the button still ”clicks,” I can tell you now it won’t. While I’ve had similar problems as you, gestures like the lock screen and control center still work over the frozen app. So I wouldn’t worry about the new interface as those gestures are controlled separately just like the “click” of the home button.

Don’t know if this has been replied to since, but the 6S+ 100% has a physical button. The software button started with the 7

 

[AlphaGuitarist]

Is it really though? We never really know how many iPhones are produced by launch. The record for a full pre-order weekend is 13mil, with orders being pushed out 2-3 months by the end of that weekend. Is it safe to assume that with pre-orders being pushed out that far that Apple hasn't even been able to meet demand by 50% on launch day in the past?

Really, 2-3mil launch day device shipments may not be as bad as we are led to believe, and maybe not be too far off from the previous iPhone releases. The iPhone 6S Plus itself reportedly only had 1.5-2.5mil ready by its launch day. There is a reason Apple gave themselves and extra six weeks with this release.

Apple has never once come out and said "we have this many shipments ready to go for launch day", so we really don't know how many they've shipped on launch days in the past. I stick to my guns that this will be not much different than past iPhone releases.

I would have to agree. First and foremost, I don't take much stock in analysts' predictions, regardless of their reputation. Keep in mind that the same analyst who was predicting 12 million launch units last week is now predicting 2-3 million. It somewhat begs the question of whether or not they just pull random numbers out of a hat. Every year, when it comes to availability, the same "sky is falling" story is repeated. Considering the announcement that Apple will be cutting the 8/8 Plus production by 50% after the X's release, I'm sure that they are confident that sufficient stock levels of the X will be available.

 

[carpleror]

I am not hyped. I will not buy this phone.

Please don't. With only 3 million units, there aren't enough to go around...
[doublepost=1508527083][/doublepost]

Same same same stories each year. Just marketing spin to drum up publicity and get you to pre-order. Pattern repeats

Edit : these stories get clicks - so ads - and side benefit is that Apple gets publicity

It may be the same story, but it certainly isn't the same situation. This phone will be far more constrained than any other iPhone before it. I expect this to be like the AirPods, with ship dates slipping to 6-8 weeks fairly quickly.
[doublepost=1508527233][/doublepost]

Omg, just do your research and learn what happened. It would be like someone pressing the home button several times and engaging the bio lock out. It happens to me every week with the iPhone (I hold it in my palm and trigger the Touch ID), so don't act like it's a Face ID problem. The bio lock out is there for a reason and it worked like it was supposed to. End of discussion.

Please don't try to reason with these people. You might actually convince someone to buy one, and supplies are constrained enough already. Let them wallow in their ignorance...

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

Scalpers are going to have a field day.

 

[Seoras]

Can you explain what using an emulator for the X has you excited to buy one?

No. Download Xcode 9 from the app store, try it yourself and see.
Somethings need to be experienced to be appreciated (even if simulated).

 

[Tech198]

If we think this is bad, i wonder how bad it will get when we get the iPhone that folds.

https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/11/apple-lg-foldable-iphone/

 

[SwissGuy93]

For the sake of clarity, srock is never distributed evenly. For example, Switzerland (I picked that based on your SN ) is much much smaller than the US, so the likelihood they get the same unit allocation is, well, impossible. But I full understand what you are saying. It doesn't make a lot of sense to roll out in more countries than they ever have on a launch in the history of iPhone with less stock than they have had for a launch in at least half a decade.

Yes that is true. My distribution was very linear and not based on the true numbers but as you said, it showed my concern pretty clearly. Even when redistributing the 2-3 Mio units there would be no where near a feasible amount.
But yeah, something is clearly not adding up with the numbers our countries and the available units reported by Kuo.

 

[madKIR]

Yes that is true. My distribution was very linear and not based on the true numbers but as you said, it showed my concern pretty clearly. Even when redistributing the 2-3 Mio units there would be no where near a feasible amount.
But yeah, something is clearly not adding up with the numbers our countries and the available units reported by Kuo.

I find it hard to believe that Apple would decide to launch it in 50 countries knowing their supplies were going to be that constrained. They have to be absolutely nuts to come up with such an idea. I get that this year has not been the best for them, but it's like Marketing 101.

 

[03sho]

Apple sold 10 million 6/6Plus and 13 million 6s/6sPlus units during launch weekend.
If they have "only" 2-3 million handsets ready for the iPhone X launch there should still be a fair chance to get one on launch day – as long as you get your order in within the first minutes. I'm not too worried.

My hope also I think we all will be ok ;-)

Erm 6 and 6s launch weekend was only 12 countries. iPhone x is 55...

 

[Tom G.]

I have no idea at the moment how much it costs Apple to manufacture an iPhone X, but simple math says that if Apple only ships 2.5 million iPhones on opening day @ $1,000 each thats $2,500,000,000.00 into Apple’s coffers on one day. Minus of course the afore mentioned manufacturing costs.

I don’t regret my Apple stock purchase at all.

 

[Starfyre]

What does it mean when they say manufacturing issues are ending, does it mean they have more people to do the same thing they are doing now to assemble these phones? Or have they changed the processes to assemble themselves so that they are better and pumping out more? Do we expect possible increases in failure with the first manufactured iPhone X versus the one that will be shipped out 6 months from now?

 

[The Game 161]

Not long to go until we see how many there will be.

 

[bushman4]

This time around supply shortage seems legit. I don't understand how Apple can go into a launch with so few iphone X's .
Nobody wants to purchase an iPhone and wait 3 months to get it. Hopefully the stories are wrong and Apple has a plan.

 

[SwissGuy93]

I find it hard to believe that Apple would decide to launch it in 50 countries knowing their supplies were going to be that constrained. They have to be absolutely retarded to come up with such an idea. I get that this year has not been the best for them, but it's like Marketing 101.

Yes, that is what I have been thinking ever since the announcement. If they only launched it in a handful of countries I would have maybe believed this report but this would just be outrageous.

 

[itsmemuffins]

If true then with such constrained supplies I think that the initial launch will only be to a handful of countries. Perhaps 2 million phones to the states. Half million to the U.K. and Germany and the rest to China. I can’t see worldwide launch till next year.

It’s launching in 55 countries on the 27th of October.

 

[lionkin]

Oh no not again, iPhone 7 preorder was a nightmare.

 

[daleski75]

Well it won’t be long before the pre orders start then let the chaos commence.

Scalpers are going to buy the phones and put them up on eBay for a massive mark up if the supply constraints really are true.

How long is everyone willing to wait after the 3rd to snag an X though?

I think I could wait up till Xmas at a push but if it's any longer I will just get the 8 plus and save £200 in the process.

 

[ValO]

How would you know what steve would or wouldn't do? Apple has been without Steve's leadership for 5 years. There is no way of knowing how Steve would act now.
It was clear that Steve thought that the iPhone 5 screen size was enough. And he was clearly wrong about that. We don't know if we would ever have gotten a Plus size phone under steves leader ship. And let's not forget MoblieMe and the Antennagate. Steve was brilliant but he was nowhere near perfect.

Yes,
Apple could also have made an iphone x without a notch that is 5.6 inch and just has a bezel on top ,I guess some people would have been happier with that. I don’ t mind the notch though. I would rather have seen slightly smaller bezels surrounding the device, i would not even mind if apple made an it an edge to edge curved panel , without functional/touch curved sides, and have the curved part of the screen adjust the color with the content displayed on screen( kind of ambilight). Would have been more immersive.

 

[novingate]

nice phone
[doublepost=1508590927][/doublepost]With just one week to go until pre-orders for the iPhone X begin, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released a new report indicating that the "worst [will] soon [be] over" with regards to production difficulties. According to Kuo, the biggest hurdle has likely been the flexible printed circuit…

 

[kdarling]

What does it mean when they say manufacturing issues are ending, does it mean they have more people to do the same thing they are doing now to assemble these phones? Or have they changed the processes to assemble themselves so that they are better and pumping out more?

I think all the reports indicate two different problems that are slowly being solved:

- Ramping up the actual supply of parts, including the boards and sensors.

- Fine tuning the assembly and alignment of the 3D sensors, which is often done using a test target. Time consuming.

So as more parts become available, and the factories are better able to quickly put them together, production is increasing.

Do we expect possible increases in failure with the first manufactured iPhone X versus the one that will be shipped out 6 months from now?

I think it's not uncommon for initial runs to have cosmetic and build problems. Apple is happy to replace them, just unfortunately they soon begin doing so with refurbs.

(Cue the posters who claim refurbs are somehow better than new, but who unsurprisingly never volunteer to swap their expensive new phones in return for a "better" cheaper used refurb, themselves.)