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KGI: iPhone X Production Woes Ending, but Only 2–3 Million Units Available for Launch

Macalway said:
4 to 6 weeks for almost everyone. Anyone getting one on Nov 3 has won a lottery.

So the Nov 3 people will form a smug little click that will annoy everyone, while they spend their 'week' rubbing it in. Meanwhile, the rest of us watch slack jawed as scalpers rake in 3 times it's street value.

Should be fun :)
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Wow do you think they will honestly retail for close to £3,000 on the black market ?
 
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rovolo said:
Well, obviously I've been "very lucky" for a long time. Got every iPhone since the 3G on launch day - even the 6 Plus which was in very short supply compared to demand.
I think we highly overestimate the amount of people who actually sit there at X.01 o'clock refreshing their 2 iDevices plus 1 Mac like maniacs to get their order in before X.02 o'clock.

And considering the pricing of the X I'm very optimistic for my order next week.
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The stock for those models have also been higher, thus giving you (and others) a bigger window of opportunity to pre order and receive it on launch day. This time, the stock will only be 2-3M, which means stock for whichever country you're in will be a LOT lower, thus giving you a much, much shorter window to pre order and with the amount of people who will be pre ordering in your country, your chances of getting one on launch day is pretty much unlikely.
 
KGI expects Apple to have between 1.5 and 2.5 million iPhone 6s Plus units ready to ship for September 25th.
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This quote was taken from a KGI report days before the iPhone 6S pre-orders started. My order for the 6S Plus was completed at 3:09am according to my old e-mails and I received my phone on launch day. Again, this isn't unlike past iPhone releases.
 
pukrnukr said:
That’s odd. My iPhone 7 doesn’t have a “physical” button. My iPhone 6S+ didn’t have one either.
The iPhone hasn’t had a “physical” button since the 6. The round spot in the glass doesn’t move and is the Taptic Engine Also controlled by software. Shut your phone off and see if the button still ”clicks,” I can tell you now it won’t. While I’ve had similar problems as you, gestures like the lock screen and control center still work over the frozen app. So I wouldn’t worry about the new interface as those gestures are controlled separately just like the “click” of the home button.
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If you think the 6s and 6s Plus don’t have physical buttons you might want to try that test yourself as the solid state button didn’t come in till the 7 series.
 
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Cryates said:
This quote was taken from a KGI report days before the iPhone 6S pre-orders started. My order for the 6S Plus was completed at 3:09am according to my old e-mails and I received my phone on launch day. Again, this isn't unlike past iPhone releases.
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Oh, thanks for that. That does put things into perspective. Anyone see a problem with this? (I don't know the numbers, and haven't a clue, like most of us)
 
2-3 million
That should leave approximately 1.5-2.5 million unsold.
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Relentless Power said:
I Don't think necessarily you have to be hyped to buy this phone. I think there are those who are generally interested in Face ID and a changes Apple has made after all these years having a similar form factor with LCD. I personally find it to be more exciting to finally see significant changes with this new iPhone X.
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Yeah, the changes on the X are quite mindblowing. :rolleyes:
 
Macalway said:
Oh, thanks for that. That does put things into perspective. Anyone see a problem with this? (I don't know the numbers, and haven't a clue, like most of us)
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I do see one problem with this.

The 6S launch did not occur simultaneously across more than 55 countries. Apple sold 13 million iPhone 6s and 6s Plus during launch weekend (September 25, 2015 - September 27, 2015) in only 10 countries (US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore and the UK). It expanded the launch to an additional 40 countries on October 9, 2015 (2 weeks later).

As MANY others have stated, no one (including KGI) has any idea what the real supply numbers are, or what the actual demand will be. The only "safe" bet is to pre-order as soon as possible, and then hope for the best.
 
pukrnukr said:
That’s odd. My iPhone 7 doesn’t have a “physical” button. My iPhone 6S+ didn’t have one either.
The iPhone hasn’t had a “physical” button since the 6. The round spot in the glass doesn’t move and is the Taptic Engine Also controlled by software. Shut your phone off and see if the button still ”clicks,” I can tell you now it won’t. While I’ve had similar problems as you, gestures like the lock screen and control center still work over the frozen app. So I wouldn’t worry about the new interface as those gestures are controlled separately just like the “click” of the home button.
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Are you sure your 6s plus does not have a physical home button?
My 6s still has it.
The 7 & 7 plus should be the first one to get rid of the physical button.
 
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iAttorny said:
I do see one problem with this.

The 6S launch did not occur simultaneously across more than 55 countries. Apple sold 13 million iPhone 6s and 6s Plus during launch weekend (September 25, 2015 - September 27, 2015) in only 10 countries (US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore and the UK). It expanded the launch to an additional 40 countries on October 9, 2015 (2 weeks later).

As MANY others have stated, no one (including KGI) has any idea what the real supply numbers are, or what the actual demand will be. The only "safe" bet is to pre-order as soon as possible, and then hope for the best.
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This is very true, and a good assessment. I would consider the shipments by country as well though. The US will undoubtedly see the highest number of shipments. The report that said 46,500 iPhone X's went to the Netherlands and UAE is only one percent of the 2-3mil devices KGI estimates will ship by Nov 3rd. A 55 country release sounds like a huge release, but we don't in fact know that all of those countries are getting Nov 3rd shipments. Sure, they will be able to place orders, and that's technically a 'release' but the phones are going to go largely where the demand is highest and that's here.
 
Cryates said:
This is very true, and a good assessment. I would consider the shipments by country as well though. The US will undoubtedly see the highest number of shipments. The report that said 46,500 iPhone X's went to the Netherlands and UAE is only one percent of the 2-3mil devices KGI estimates will ship by Nov 3rd. A 55 country release sounds like a huge release, but we don't in fact know that all of those countries are getting Nov 3rd shipments. Sure, they will be able to place orders, and that's technically a 'release' but the phones are going to go largely where the demand is highest and that's here.
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China will probably get the most shipments. It has a population of 4.26x that of the USA, and is also Apple's biggest market. Also, iPhone popularity and sales are slowly dwindling thanks to competition from other smartphone makers, so it makes sense to prioritise China and reclaim lost users.
 
ssrij said:
China will probably get the most shipments. It has a population of 4.26x that of the USA, and is also Apple's biggest market. Also, iPhone popularity and sales are slowly dwindling thanks to competition from other smartphone makers, so it makes sense to prioritise China and reclaim lost users.
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I don't know about that. I mean, China will see its fair share of shipments for sure, but there are too many competing big-brand manufacturers in that region and China is reluctant to pay high prices for devices, which is the reason Apple has previously struggled with that market.

Just look at this report, iPhone use is substantially trending down year-over-year in China: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-sales-region-china-chart-2017-3

cotd320.png


Hard to believe that trend will change with a device priced higher than any other before it.
 
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Apple should've just made this iPhone X upfront only, pay the full upfront cost and get it. No carrier, no iUP, no nothing. Only way to get it is to shell out $999/$1149. Supply would've easily met the demand. And then add iUP, carriers, etc when production has ramped up significantly.
 
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ssrij said:
Apple should've just made this iPhone X upfront only, pay the full upfront cost and get it. No carrier, no iUP, no nothing. Only way to get it is to shell out $999/$1149. Supply would've easily met the demand. And then add iUP, carriers, etc when production has ramped up significantly.
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Or there are no production issues at all and we get the phone.
 
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One thing you all seem to forget: Analyst sell and buy stock. What is good? Low stock so that they can buy it and sell it more expensively. So please, please do not believe everything they write. They just want to earn money like everyone else. And how do they push the stock down? Report about problems, and then sell the stock when it soars because of the great numbers.
 
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