KGI: Larger-Sized iPhones Coming This Year Will Offset Weakening Demand for iPhone X in China

[ksec]

Keep dreaming. Quoted for February 1.

No one knows the true demand for iPhone X until Apple tells us how they did. This article says the exact opposite and that the X was the best selling phone in urban China. All are guesses.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/19/apple-incs-iphone-x-is-a-hit-in-china.aspx

Apple said they do $87B, so they must have been pretty bullish on the X. Spoiler Alert, Apple rarely misses their own guidance.

But this is no surprise, coming from you.

One is from Ashraf Eassa reporting, who has an EXTREMELY poor track record on anything Intel and Apple. He quote the source from Kantar Worldpanel, which I have never heard of, AND, it has been pointed out numerous time these firms track the sales number via WeiBo post, which is known to be fake. ( There is actually a variable business selling WeiPo Post in iPhone X )

Another from KGI, which as much as I hate to admit it has it right many times. Likely has a source within the supply chain rather then Apple itself.

Yes Apple rarely ( I actually dont remember them ever missing it ) their own guidance. But the most important number is next Q guidance. I think there are enough stocks within the channel.

 

[szw-mapple fan]

Part of the reason is mobile networks in Asia are newer, more advanced, and data is far less expensive due to competition.

In China, 10GB plans have been normal for a long time and cost around $35. In South Korea, data is dirt cheap. It's only recently that the U.S. has introduced unlimited data plans.
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No, that's not even close to being true.

China was the third largest PC market way back in 2000. They've been the world's largest PC market since 2011.

More PCs are sold per capita in China than in the U.S.

Back in 2004 China ranked 104th in PC per capita at just over 40 out of 1000 while the US was in the top 10 with over 700 per 1000 people. Even today China is nowhere near cracking the top 10, especially in rural areas. Are you sure you're not including smartphones in your figures?

 

[Baymowe335]

One is from Ashraf Eassa reporting, who has an EXTREMELY poor track record on anything Intel and Apple. He quote the source from Kantar Worldpanel, which I have never heard of, AND, it has been pointed out numerous time these firms track the sales number via WeiBo post, which is known to be fake. ( There is actually a variable business selling WeiPo Post in iPhone X )

Another from KGI, which as much as I hate to admit it has it right many times. Likely has a source within the supply chain rather then Apple itself.

Yes Apple rarely ( I actually dont remember them ever missing it ) their own guidance. But the most important number is next Q guidance. I think there are enough stocks within the channel.

I'll remind you Kantar is the same company that people believed when they indicated iOS market share went down in a few markets during November. Despite that most likely being driven by waiters for the iPhone X, this forum ran with it.

I care about nothing except the guidance, which was $87B, and the actual numbers reported on February 1. Literally every other article is speculation and fake news.

 

[allanfries]

Wow, those are some ugly looking phones.

 

[Baymowe335]

Where do the size wars end? The current size of the iPhone X seems perfect. It has more screen real estate than the iPhone 8 but still fits nicely in a normal size hand. And how much would an iPhone X plus possible cost...$1,500?! I'd rather take an old iPhone 6 and use the left over cash for a MBP for that much money.

Why would an iPhone X plus cost $1500? Probably will start at $1099 based on logic.

 

[handsome pete]

I’d much rather spend 1000 on a phone where it’s going to be around for a while than spending money on a Trip to Paris where once it’s done it’s done.

I like my iPhone X. However I think the memories from a trip to Paris would far outlast those of a phone.

 

[JediZenMaster]

Research says experiences create more long lasting happiness; purchases create more happiness near term but tends to fade and people go back down to prior levels of happy ( or unhappy).

I guess that’s one way to look at it. I do hope the price stays the same though. Folks need to realize that companies need to make a profit also and that if an item that’s a higher tier is wanted then then the higher price is going to need to be paid.

That’s the way it is for food, apartments, pretty much everything so why should iPhone be the exception to that?

 

[44267547]

I'm surprised that even larger screens are desired. Is small screen design so useless that larger screens are needed? Shouldn't we be focusing on supreme design for small compact screens?

What's considered a "Supreme" design? How do you have such a Metric when everybody has different preferences and different size displays?

 

[a.gomez]

And they not crazy enough to pay for it.

 

[Abazigal]

Then they're only gonna sell one of them - not sure anyone else will want a phone with "Abazigal" carved in large print on both sides.

Have a like, you monster.

 

[Abazigal]

I'm surprised that even larger screens are desired. Is small screen design so useless that larger screens are needed? Shouldn't we be focusing on supreme design for small compact screens?

I used to think that way too, but having used a 6S+, I find the larger screen is awesome for productivity. The extra space just helps so much when I am reviewing a lesson plan (pdf documents stored in notability or mindmap in MindNode), reading emails or simply browsing the web, amongst other tasks. And I can still use my phone comfortably with one hand.

Another side effect is that a larger screen also means more space for battery. Larger X phone with stacked battery design? Yes please!

 

[cppguy]

I don’t understand the appeal of a phone larger than the X

The X has a smaller effective screen size than the non-Plus models, if you consider that most apps crop in significantly. I want my Plus-size screen. It fits in my pocket just fine, and I'm not wearing cargo pants or anything of that nature.

 

[Will.O.Bie]

Just go all out and produce a 7" OLED iPhone X Plus and take my money already!

 

[Tech198]

Weak demand for the X in general.

Yep..

6.5 seems too large for a phone too.. This is one times, everyone does need Bluetooth earbuds otherwise you'd look kinda silly with small hands and a large phone

 

[The Game 161]

Yep..

6.5 seems too large for a phone too.. This is one times, everyone does need Bluetooth earbuds otherwise you'd look kinda silly with small hands and a large phone

Not really though, the 6.5 inch phone will be same kind of size as the 5.5 plus model

 

[parajba]

Tbh I was one of those waiting for the X Plus, then I bit the bullet and bought an X. Perfect size imho.

 

[Pritz23]

I don’t understand the appeal of a phone larger than the X. It’s like perfect size. My 7 plus isn’t exactly comfortable and I have huge hands. Do they all hold their phones with 2 hands over there?

Actually once you get used of the big screen its something you look for when you pick up small phones.

 

[Glideslope]

Keep dreaming. Quoted for February 1.

No one knows the true demand for iPhone X until Apple tells us how they did. This article says the exact opposite and that the X was the best selling phone in urban China. All are guesses.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/19/apple-incs-iphone-x-is-a-hit-in-china.aspx

Apple said they do $87B, so they must have been pretty bullish on the X. Spoiler Alert, Apple rarely misses their own guidance.

But this is no surprise, coming from you.

Total iPhone sales for Q1 will be around 80 Million units for all models combined. X sales will be a bit over 35 million units for Q1. I’ve made no projections on Apple’s Q1 profit for all services/products.

 

[maverick2007]

That notch killed my buying decision! Its useless screen near notch. I think apple should learn from Xiaomi on how to design phones, I know apple lovers would bash me here but truth is truth. IMHO iPhone X is design fail.

 

[cmaier]

I like my iPhone X. However I think the memories from a trip to Paris would far outlast those of a phone.

I’ve been to Paris. Much prefer my iPhone X. It’s less snooty and doesn’t constantly try to embarrass me for trying to speak French.

 

[Baymowe335]

Total iPhone sales for Q1 will be around 80 Million units for all models combined. X sales will be a bit over 35 million units for Q1. I’ve made no projections on Apple’s Q1 profit for all services/products.

Nor should you as you wouldn’t be qualified to do so.

So you’re just acting bearish but in reality know they will kill it? We won’t know iPhone X sales specifically, but selling over 80M iPhones and 35M X will be a resounding success. Not sure what you expected, but if it’s more, you are being unreasonable.

 

[AdonisSMU]

May I ask were you saw a white version where I live we were only offered Black or Slate gray.

Ordered it. I have it in my hand right now.

 

[nviz22]

I hope the X isn't reaching EOL (end of life) status by the end of the summer. Would be a nice cheaper alternative to this year's X since it will do most of the same stuff at a fraction of the price hopefully.

 

[Baymowe335]

Yep..

6.5 seems too large for a phone too.. This is one times, everyone does need Bluetooth earbuds otherwise you'd look kinda silly with small hands and a large phone

What do you mean yep?

No one knows with any certainty how well the X has sold until Apple tells us on February 1. Even then, we won’t get product mix.

Fake news.

 

[Ankaa]

I love my iPhone X. That being said, it IS too big for me. Go bigger all you want (though I thought it's a phone and not a tablet), there is a demographic who would LOVE a smaller-formfactor iPhone X.