Become a MacRumors Supporter for $25/year with no ads, private forums, and more!

Kuo: Apple Car Still in Early Stages, Unlikely to Launch Until 2025-2027 at Earliest

MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
51,579
13,194


Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Apple is targeting 2024 for production of its long-rumored electric vehicle with "next level" battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that a launch is unlikely until 2025-2027 at the earliest.


In a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that Apple Car specifications have yet to be finalized, adding that he would not be surprised if the vehicle's launch timeframe is pushed out even farther to 2028 or later:
We predicted in a previous report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023–2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that the current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear, and if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple's high-quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car's launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later.
Kuo said the market is "overly bullish" about the Apple Car's launch schedule, and he has advised investors to avoid buying Apple Car-related stocks at this time.

While he does not believe that the Apple Car has no chance of success, Kuo said there is uncertainty about how competitive Apple would be in the EV/self-driving vehicle market due to the company lagging behind in deep learning/artificial intelligence:
The market has high expectations for Apple Car. Still, we remind investors that although Apple has a variety of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new
business. For example, Apple failed to enter the smart speaker market. The demand for HomePod and HomePod mini were lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models had been temporarily suspended. The competition in the EV/self-driving car market is fiercer than that for smart speakers, so we think it's perilous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed.

If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the key success factor is big data/AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about Apple Car is that when Apple Car is launched, the current self-driving car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and be conducive to deep learning/AI. How does Apple, a latecomer, overcome this lagging gap?
Reuters claimed that Apple's self-driving vehicle will feature a unique "monocell" battery design that "frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating pouches and modules that hold battery materials," potentially resulting in longer range per charge.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently reacted to the Apple Car rumors on Twitter, claiming that a "monocell" battery is "electrochemically impossible." Musk also claimed that "during the darkest days" of Model 3 production, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla for a fraction of its current value, but Cook apparently declined the meeting.

All in all, it sounds like the Apple Car remains a distant reality.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Car Still in Early Stages, Unlikely to Launch Until 2025-2027 at Earliest
 
Last edited:

nfl46

macrumors 604
Oct 5, 2008
7,314
5,658
That’s a pretty long time. I’d love to see the range on these things in 7/8 years. By time it comes out, Apple would have been working on it for close to 14 years or so. Heck, Tim, may not even be CEO by time it launches.
 
Comment

Jefe's MacAir

macrumors 6502a
Nov 21, 2010
534
390
I think the bigger news here is the fact that Tim Cook declined a meeting with Elon Musk. That's shortsighted even if Apple wasn't interested in buying Tesla. I'm a TC fan but this concerns me with the judgement decision. A few hours of your time to at least pick Elon Musk's brain to see how he ticks? Big miss. He has actually put humans in space. So...


More on topic. Ordered the Tesla truck over a year ago. Still haven't a clue when it will be released. So this news is just par for the course. But the future of cars/trucks looks good from here. We'll see.
 
Comment

Mac Fly (film)

macrumors 68000
Feb 12, 2006
1,559
4,384
Ireland
It's great being an analyst because when you learn your prediction is going to be wrong you can just update your prediction, be that late or early, and if launch would be 2024-25 as the time comes nearer you just release a new note.
 
Comment

cmaier

macrumors Core
Jul 25, 2007
20,741
23,154
California
As someone who owns a Tesla... yes, you will. You would be very surprised how very comfortable you get when you become accustomed to the autonomous capability of your car.

When my non-self-driving Tesla was in the shop for more than a month i was given a self-driving Tesla as a loaner.

It was terrible. The entire time you have to be on alert and ready to take control. It’s actually easier to just turn it off - a lot less stressful. The only useful part, to me, were features that exist on non-self-driving cars anyway (e.g. smart cruise control that maintains distance). Having to try and guess what the car might suddenly do (for example, on a certain stretch of california 101 it wanted, every time, to run me into a medium), and be ready to counteract the car at any time, requires so much more energy than just driving it myself.
 
Comment

Baymowe335

Suspended
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,447
It’s kind of a good position to be in to be the largest, most profitable company and still have the ability to shake up massive markets.

Apple doesn’t need to rush anything if there are indeed doing this.
 
Comment

Baymowe335

Suspended
Oct 6, 2017
6,640
12,447
As someone who owns a Tesla... yes, you will. You would be very surprised how very comfortable you get when you become accustomed to the autonomous capability of your car.
Nah, it’s good in 99% of cases, but it’s that damn 1% you need to worry about, just like normal drivers.

That is what separates good drivers from people always getting in little fender benders or worse.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jaymc and SBlue1
Comment

Bearxor

macrumors 6502a
Jun 7, 2007
670
260
I guess it depends on how old you are, but you definitely will. There will be a point, I’m gonna say 2050-ish, where states will begin legislating that human-controlled vehicles shouldn’t be operated on the roads.
 
Comment

ericwn

macrumors 604
Apr 24, 2016
7,150
4,769
I own a Tesla, and no you don't.

We just don’t know the full story, what tech Apple has in the works etc. They hired a good bunch of Tesla employees, so let’s assume they have a game plan even without having to make a costly investment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Art Mark
Comment
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.