Kuo: Apple Mixed-Reality Headset May Not Appear at WWDC as Mass Production Pushed Back Yet Again

[lovehateapple]

This is disappointing news, but I'm glad apple is (apparently) waiting until the technology catches up with its ambition. If nothing is announced at WWDC, I am now hoping something is announced or released by Black Friday / Christmas.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

I don't play games and have a large TV where I watch movies and shows and I don't like the idea of the VR world where you interact with avatars etc. For gamers, VR will be great though, I think.

VR is more than just games you know. You can do fitness with it with apps like Supernatural, play sports with apps like Golf+, watch content in your own personal environment or in 3D with apps like Bigscreen (who btw get access to new 3D movie releases), do work in VR as engineer designers use VR to make CAD models and spot errors in their designs early, and even use VR for training purposes. KFC uses VR for training new employees using a proprietary experience called The Hard Way

 

[citysnaps]

Consumer scalable AR glasses are years off. The technology doesn't yet exist, and Apple is no exception.

Take a look at what was presented at last year's SIGGRAPH conference.

Also...keep in mind that Apple has been working this tech for seven years now, collaborating with Stanford University's AR/VR laboratory over that period of time.

 

[itsboi]

It really is mind-boggling. I'd also add Apple's seven year collaboration with Stanford University's AR/VR laboratory.

One just needs to look at what was presented at last year's SIGGRAPH conference last year to see what's coming.

And someone here is wondering why Apple would distribute dev prototypes if they’re not all in the gaming industry… not grasping the possibilities AR that goes beyond entertainment. Kinda wild Apple takes heat for being unimaginative, uncreative, and when their most left field product is on the horizon, we get an onslaught of Steve Balmer takes.

And we’re basing this off on the premature failures of other tech companies from like.. a decade ago. Which means Apple is doomed apparently because others have failed..
Hello stylus smartphones, wired Bluetooth headphones, and Windows on ARM.

 

[citysnaps]

And someone here is wondering why Apple would distribute dev prototypes if they’re not all in the gaming industry… not grasping the possibilities AR that goes beyond entertainment. Kinda wild Apple takes heat for being unimaginative, uncreative, and when their most left field product is on the horizon, we get an onslaught of Steve Balmer takes.

And we’re basing this off on the premature failures of other tech companies from like.. a decade ago. Which means Apple is doomed apparently because others have failed..
Hello stylus smartphones, wired Bluetooth headphones, and Windows on ARM.

As someone who gets AR's potential, you're a breath of fresh air here.

 

[floral]

In a tweet, Kuo explained that Apple "isn't very optimistic" about whether the headset will be able to create an "iPhone moment." As a result, the company has chosen to delay the device's mass production schedule to the middle to the end of the third quarter of 2023. Kuo believes that the delay adds uncertainty around "whether the new device will appear at WWDC 2023, as the market widely expects."

If it's getting pushed back, it could mean that the headset is being developed more thoroughly which might mean better quality and hardware

Then again, it could not.

 

[DarthBuzzard]

Take a look at what was presented at last year's SIGGRAPH conference.

Also...keep in mind that Apple has been working this tech for seven years now, collaborating with Stanford University's AR/VR laboratory over that period of time.

I've kept up to date with a lot of SIGGRAPH stuff, and there are still many barriers that need to be solved.

Have you heard of Karl Guttag? He once wrote a list of about 20 different major factors that AR needs to solve to be viable for the masses, and if you improve/solve one factor, it almost certainly causes tradeoffs with multiple other factors.

MR headsets are a different story. They already exist in the market, and while still quite a few years off from being viable for the masses, are at least a viable product for early adopters today.

 

[Skyscraperfan]

Seems quite dead. Even 300,000 times $4,000 is just $1.2 billion. That is not a lot of money for an Apple product, which probably has cost multiple times that amount to develope.

 

[Mr. Dee]

There’s no way they’re calling it the MacBook Studio. They’ve already used “Studio” for a device with the highest-end AS processors. No way they use it for an entry-level laptop.

If its gonna cost 1699, its not an entry level laptop. Bookmarking so I can clap back efficiently in June.

 

[citysnaps]

I've kept up to date with a lot of SIGGRAPH stuff, and there are still many barriers that need to be solved.

Have you heard of Karl Guttag? He once wrote a list of about 20 different major factors that AR needs to solve to be viable for the masses, and if you improve/solve one factor, it almost certainly causes tradeoffs with multiple other factors.

I haven't heard of him, but will certainly look into his views.

"and if you improve/solve one factor, it almost certainly causes tradeoffs with multiple other factors."

I think making challenging trades is what Apple excels at.

Personally... I still believe it will be glasses wirelessly tethered (via UWB) to a user's iPhone, though I've seen nothing that supports that. For me, it makes a ton of sense, for a variety of reasons.

 

[Serqetry]

You can't delay something that doesn't exist.

 

[ThisBougieLife]

If its gonna cost 1699, its not an entry level laptop. Bookmarking so I can clap back efficiently in June.

Nah 😅 It's the same reason they didn't call the bigger iPhone 14 the "14 Max". "Max" means high-end. 14 Plus is still entry-level.

What I think might happen is no more "Air" and they just call the entry-level laptops "MacBook".

 

[giggles]

The original iPad started mass production the month after it was unveiled.

The original Apple Watch started mass production 4 months after it was unveiled.

The original Apple Reality Pro will start assembly mass production after it is unveiled in early June or early September, not before. They had a small (probably more secretive) production run in summer 2022 to have a couple thousand units on hand (they even handed some of those units to a selection of high profile 3rd party devs in late 2022). Mass production will begin after it’s unveiled, same as it happened for the OG iPad and the OG Watch.

 

[DarthBuzzard]

I haven't heard of him, but will certainly look into his views.

"and if you improve/solve one factor, it almost certainly causes tradeoffs with multiple other factors."

I think making challenging trades is what Apple excels at.

Personally... I still believe it will be glasses wirelessly tethered (via UWB) to a user's iPhone, though I've seen nothing that supports that. For me, it makes a ton of sense, for a variety of reasons.

You can make challenging trades and find the equation for what combination works best, but you're still making tradeoffs because the laws of physics apply.

You are almost certainly correct that it will be tethered to an iPhone, as that is what other companies like Meta plan to do with their own phone or puck.

 

[mozz2020]

Things are getting a bit tiresome on the rumours front. We've really been hearing the same regurgitated stories for three years. It's VR/AR headset and Mac Pro ping pong with a side of M3.

 

[BobSc]

May or may not be true.

Insightful.

 

[DevNull0]

Absolutely absurd. Apple has been working on this for at least 6 years.

What people can’t seem to understand is that “analysts” are hucksters who can always be right by claiming delays. Then people, and the tech “journalism” community take the first prediction as gospel, and believe that x or y had been delayed, when Kuo has no actual idea when Apple is actually planning on release.

I’d love to have such a cushy and consequence free job as him. You can never be wrong about a timeline you threw out, you can just claim delay.

Wasting 6 years on R&D doesn't mean they "have to" release it. Apple (and most companies) try out a lot of ideas that just don't work out.

I was an early adopter of Oculus Rift and I don't regret it, but there's just not purpose to AR/VR right now. Apple has never created a product market from scratch, they take something that's already been proven a successful market, add their magic and blow up the market. Apple is not going to invent the AR/VR market in a dead space.

Apple planning to release an AR/VR headset is entirely speculation from these "huskers" you want to dismiss right now. So why are you so sure they were right before and wrong now? You are so critical of these people as you grasp onto their own predictions. It seems you're the one who's taken their first prediction as gospel.

 

[DTphonehome]

AirPower this stupid thing already. It will save Apple the ridicule. Even if this is exceptionally well-executed, it will be an extraordinarily niche product that will inevitably flop. Read the room, Apple. Everyone is pulling out of VR. You aren't just late to the party - the party sucked and everyone is already headed for the exits.

 

[citysnaps]

You are almost certainly correct that it will be tethered to an iPhone, as that is what other companies like Meta plan to do with their own phone or puck.

For sure. It makes no sense replicating what already exists in a user's iPhone (a super fast cpu/gpu, high capacity battery, internet connection, and UWB). And ending up with a much heavier and bulky optical system (glasses).

Short range and low power UWB could handle high data rate multiple data/video streams in both directions, making the device truly wireless to a user's iPhone.

I suspect Apple's push to making even faster iPhone A-series cpu/gpu chips is partly driven by wanting decent AR computational horsepower available. A much smaller battery and an ASIC customized to handle the cameras, video streams, and UWB communications, would keep the glasses/headset small, light weight, and wireless.

 

[Reason077]

Pushed back again huh? Classic Tim Apple move here. This thing is going to flop anyway, so it might as well just go the way of the AirPower at this point. What a joke! At least people are finally waking up, slowly but surely, to what Apple has become.

If Apple knows it's going to flop, they should just save themselves the embarrassment and cancel this release. Put it on the back burner, wait until the technology has matured enough and the time is right for it to make a big splash.

Everyone doing AR/VR is struggling right now. The technology will certainly have it's day, but unless Apple actually has something revolutionary up their sleeve, the timing isn't right.

 

[Realityck]

If Apple knows it's going to flop, they should just save themselves the embarrassment and cancel this release. Put it on the back burner, wait until the technology has matured enough and the time is right for it to make a big splash.

Everyone doing AR/VR is struggling right now. The technology will certainly have it's day, but unless Apple actually has something revolutionary up their sleeve, the timing isn't right.

The so called meeting that Mark Grumman mentioned could have been just an off site status meeting. Nothing related to announcement. It’s these rumors that seem to have their own wings.

 

[xxFoxtail]

… Is this just vapourware?

At this point, I’m just wondering if the thing even exists or if the rumor folks are just messing with us.

 

[lazyrighteye]

Anyone excited for this thing?

I still am, despite all the red flags. And not excited because "I will be jumping in on a $3k device" - I won’t. But excited to see a new platform from a team that has done pretty well with most of the platforms in which they dabble.

I do wish they were in a position to wait until the tech caught up to their vision/the platform’s potential. But it sounds like they’ve been at this for a while (since the Ives era) and they need to start recouping some R&D. I get it. But the platform would likely have a better chance at success if they could come out of the gate with something a bit, more, "wow." And who the F knows - Maybe they still will be able to wow. All reactions are being shaped by rumors - which may/may not be valid. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[arkitect]

For now at least. Tech is early.

Well… good luck with that! 🙂

People already have a hard time reading other folks' faces for emotions… so now we're going to be fine with an ersatz facsimile that kinda looks like you, but is off just enough to be disconcerting… ?

Facial expressions are a huge part of our human interaction. We are incredibly nuanced… it took god knows how many millions of years to get us here and now silicon chips are going to solve it?

I doubt any company is going to nail this within the next 5 decades.

This podcast is worth a listen…
Summary:

It’s no surprise that it’s harder to read the emotions of people who’ve had Botox. What is surprising is that people who’ve had Botox find it harder to read other people’s emotions, too. The team explains how this could come down to something called the ‘facial feedback hypothesis’.

 

[lazyrighteye]

What a big L for Apple. 😭

Potentially. But no one here actually knows. Yet. I'm trying to take a patient, wait-and-see approach. 😉