Kuo: Apple to Launch Several Macs With Arm-Based Processors in 2021, USB4 Support Coming to Macs in 2022

[ChromeCloud]

Because as we all know cpu performance scales linearly.

You're right, it doesn't always scale linearly. I simplified the concept a bit to make it more understandable.

Even when you take into account the non-linearity of the performance increases, though, it still works.

Let's compare these two MacBooks for example:

The i7-8569U (found in the MacBook Pro 13-inch) is a 28W processor and scores 4199. The i9-9980HK (found in the MacBook Pro 15-inch) is a 45W processor and scores 6830.

60.7% TDP increase in this case translate to 62.6% performance increase. Surprisingly linear considering it's an example I just chose at random.

Of course I'm not blind and I can see single thread performance is about the same, but also consider the fact that the A13 in the iPhone 11 (a phone!) is already scoring 1300+ in single thread... So I think we can expect single thread performance at around 1500-2000 in a 28W "A14 Max".

So my point still stands. ARM MacBooks will have roughly the same performance when emulating x86 instruction set and will just about FLY when executing anything compiled for ARM, including the newest version of macOS and Apple native apps.

 

[djcerla]

Finally.

These will be excellent Logic machines, with faster single core performance and high SW/HW optimization. Can’t wait.

 

[Val-kyrie]

More interested in USB4, so 2022 is the year to look forward to.

So Macs will be behind again. Windows PCs will have USB-4 beginning at the end of 2020 / beginning of 2021, but Macs will have it in 2022. Perfect.

What is important is how fast it runs the applications

Fixed it for you:
What is important is which applications an ARM-based Mac will run. There are professional apps—CAD, emulated disability programs, etc—which likely won’t make this transition.

All the talk about being “held up” by Intel, meanwhile Apple just released a new iPad Pro with a cpu that’s essentially unchanged (With 1 additional gpu core) from the one released two years ago.

Apple could have easily adopted AMD chips, which with the 4000 series CPUs are currently on par (single core scores, battery performance) or better (multi core scores, GPU performance) than Intel in the mobile arena.

 

[Stephen.R]

So my point still stands.

Your point is still pure speculation.

 

[ssgbryan]

You're right, it doesn't always scale linearly. I simplified the concept a bit to make it more understandable.

So my point still stands. ARM MacBooks will have roughly the same performance when emulating x86 instruction set and will just about FLY when executing anything compiled for ARM, including the newest version of macOS and Apple native apps.

You are building a very large house on a very, very slender reed.

 

[Stephen.R]

Apple could have easily adopted AMD chips, which with the 4000 series CPUs are currently on par (single core scores, battery performance) or better (multi core scores, GPU performance) than Intel in the mobile arena.

And they might still. Compatibility wise, there'd be a few changes needed for specialised software (e.g. stuff using CPU extensions like VT-x on Intel) but for stuff like VirtualBox or VMWare they're already doing that on Linux/Windows anyway.

 

[PickUrPoison]

An oft-cited statistic, for sure. Well researched. This news doesn't indicate it only applies to portables, and people up-thread are certainly not making that assumption. Even if the leading edge is MacBooks, I can see the writing on the wall. Apple no longer care about me or people like me as customers. Once I'm forced off macOS, there's not much reason to stick with watchOS or iOS either. My vendor-lock in depends on the monoculture. If I have to cut a door in this walled garden it all falls apart.

Might as well move now and save yourself some money on hardware.

 

[mabaker]

Can't wait to get my first ARM-based iMac in 2021 then!

 

[Marx55]

What about Macs with Thunderbolt 4 ports?

 

[JosephAW]

What about Macs with Thunderbolt 4 ports?

More dongles.

 

[Val-kyrie]

What about Macs with Thunderbolt 4 ports?

TB4 offers no performance advantage over TB3.

USB-4 is where there is an increase in performance.

USB-4 / TB4 will at that point share the same hardware port and the same throughput.

 

[Techwatcher]

All this tells me is that iPadOS and iOS will be the new lead for Apple over macOS. macOS will start to follow the design decisions led by iPadOS and iOS. And those that put a lot of focus into Boot Camp, might as well stop soon and get an actual Windows computer if that's your workflow.

 

[Shadows_lord]

What I am more excited about is the GPU performance. Mac generally sucks right now in terms of GPU performance and considering the mindblowing GPU performance of iPhones and iPads (with a fanless power-efficient SoC), if they put a separate ARM-based GPU in Macs as well, I think Macs will become great computers for gaming. Let alone all the added benefits such as the neural engine, etc.

 

[macfan90]

what happened to the "iMac is launching soon alongside Mac mini..." well as usual, the iMac is delayed and a stupid iPad comes first.

 

[FrankCataldi14]

I could see them announcing the roadmap for ARM at WWDC like they did with the Intel switch several months before machines were released. You'd have to give developers a head start, wouldn't you?

 

[Jury]

Apple could have easily adopted AMD chips, which with the 4000 series CPUs are currently on par (single core scores, battery performance) or better (multi core scores, GPU performance) than Intel in the mobile arena.

There is no point to switch architecture if Apple couldn't deliver the same performance and still require a fan to prevent overheating the SoC on MB device. Apple does not know it might screw up badly because Tim Cook will likely approve without taking into consideration of the downside just like the debacle on butterfly keyboard.

 

[code-m]

A toy version of Office runs on IOS...let’s be real.

Are you going to call the 365 version also a toy. Microsoft would not produce or support if not making money from these versions. Like it or not for many users it fits the bill. I gather Pages works for many as well. Complaining it’s a toy does not make it so, it just means for whatever reason the developer has chosen at this time to remove things and possibly add it later that can occur on a desktop version too.

 

[cmaier]

stop lying, emulating x86 on arm will add on incredible performance penalty

Depends on how much faster the Arm chip is than the chip being emulated.

and don’t call him a liar.
[automerge]1585314158[/automerge]

All this tells me is that iPadOS and iOS will be the new lead for Apple over macOS. macOS will start to follow the design decisions led by iPadOS and iOS. And those that put a lot of focus into Boot Camp, might as well stop soon and get an actual Windows computer if that's your workflow.

“Will be?”

where have you been the last 5 years?

 

[PickUrPoison]

Wow it’s not even out yet and most comments act like Apple is inventing something here. For those curious, Windows has worked on Arm for many years. Microsoft and their partners have sold Arm based Windows laptops and convertibles for years. Surface Pro X has a custom Arm chip. Adobe is already porting the Windows suite of apps to Arm so doing the Mac side is likely in progress too. Look outside once in a while people, Apple are rarely first, they’re just the ones who make it thin and aluminium, and then cripple it at the two year mark with firmware or software (if the device lasts that long...)

The butthurt is strong with this one.

“Most comments act like Apple is inventing something here”? I don’t see that, but in any case Apple invents plenty; check out their patents sometime.

And “cripple it at the two year mark”? My iPhone 6s, iPad Mini 4 and 1st gen iPad Pro 12.9” beg to differ. So does my 2011 Mac mini 5,1.

Get some new talking points, these are ancient 🙄

 

[marshy]

The question was whether or not there's a credible ARM alternative to the HEDT chips from Intel or AMD. The answer to that question was that you could have a 100+ core ARM CPU. That's not a credible ARM alternative to the current state of the art.

So, the question remains -- in an ARM macOS world, what the heck happens to the Mac Pro? What is Apple's solution there? I can see how ARM in a low-end MacBook makes sense. I can almost see how you might rationalize an ARM based MacBook Pro. But beyond that it's a real head-scratcher to me.

I also agree with others' skepticism that Apple are willing to segment their macOS market into two, incompatible platforms and all the unavoidable complexity and consumer confusion that would necessarily arise from that situation.

The TLDR answer: "it [the MacPro] doesn't matter...."

The MacPro is already totally "uncompetitive"* when it comes to CPU and GPU, since Apple chose/limited themselves to Xeon Ws and AMD GPUs.
The FPGA Afterburner card, total memory size, Intels' AVX-512 instructions, and GPU performance in AMD compatible software are their only competitive/strong points, and that's what the application and OS software stack is optimized around:
Basically - Adobe apps, Davinci Resolve and Final Cut Pro.. - ultimately, it's a dedicated video workstation, not a general purpose workstation.
i.e. It's already an outlier in the Mac line up, with a unique use case / customer base - and doesn't really matter how / if / when it transitions to ARM... the regular consumer machines can - and likely will - be transitioned to ARM CPUs without the MacPro necessarily being included/impacted.


* Here's why:
MacPro:
- Base, $6000 spec., using Xeon W-3223 with 8 cores and 16 threads... and a RX 580 gfx card [~$200 MSRP]
- Highest spec +$10s of thousands - using Xeon W-3275M with 28-Cores. [and multi-$$$ AMD GPU upgrades]


Competitive landscape for high end workstations:
- Nvidia GPUs required for majority of GPU based applications
- Intel Xeon Platinum [not W series] available in single, dual and quad core configurations....[up to 28 cores per processor]
- AMD EPYC [or Threadripper] - w/ PICE 4 support - available in single and dual socket with 64 cores/128 threads per socket and way more PCI lanes than Intel
- ARM based workstations, e.g. :
https://www.anandtech.com/show/15165/arm-server-cpus-you-can-now-buy-amperes-emag-in-a-workstation

and futureARM CPUs with massive core counts:
Marvell ThunderX3 - 96 core, 384 thread
Ampere Altra 80-core

Again, the MacPro - as much as I'd love one* - is a niche machine aimed at Hollywood video companies using specific software stacks - it's not aimed at general purpose workstation use..

[For many years, I was the happy/proud prosumer owner of a 2008 dual Xeon MacPro [that cost $2999 USD] - and I'd love to have been able to purchase a $2999 to $3999 MacPro (with acceptable specs) - but Apple no longer sees this a valid market.
I now have a 2018 Macmini for macOS [w/eGPU], and a homebuilt Ryzen 3950x / 1 TB SSD / 64GB RAM / Nvidia RTX PC [Linux/Windows]; all for less than the base price of MacPro... .

 

[nylon]

One can always tell the optimists from the pessimists. Apple is doomed! 😂

 

[Jury]

I won't pretend to know anything about CPU architecture, so I have no preconceptions about what this will mean.

However, I do very much hope this whole thing isn't more trouble than it's worth for power/pro users.

It will be a disaster if Apple ARM-Based MB performance is the same as Intel and require a fan to prevent overheating and battery life doesn't improve significantly.

 

[Dwalls90]

I can understand some apps needing to be converted to run on ARM vs. x86, but there is already a version of Windows that runs on ARM. Microsoft is also hedging quite a bit on ARM. I agree that it won't be an overnight transition, and if Apple goes full ARM immediately, it will be a bumpy ride. But looking to the future, the ARM architecture may be able to leap ahead of x86, which has hasn't really moved forward (or at least Intel hasn't) in recent years.

 

[millerb7]

It'll be a sad day when I'm driven to the Lenovo+Linux world because I can no longer do my job with a Mac.

Come join us! I sold my 2018 MBP about 6 months ago (Literally, the keyboard was the ****ing devil). I quite like MacOS a lot, and own an iPhone and iPad... but let's be super honest with outselves... Apple makes (basically objectively) the best tablet on the market... and (a bit subjectively) the best phones on the market. They however have lost their lead in the laptop race.... significantly. They've never made, or anywhere near, the best desktops.

When I sold my '18 MBP I went to a T480 Thinkpad running full time Linux (Settled on Manjaro after trying Arch, Ubuntu, and Pop_OS).... it's been ****ing incredible. This laptop - which is gen8 hardware - blows that '18 MBP out of the water in just about every aspect. The two things apple does insanely well though are their screens and their trackpads.... I give them that. Luckily I use either a mouse or the trackpoint... and I have very nice external screens (AW 34" UW IPS) for my work... so the Thinkpad screen gets me by on the seldom time I'm using it.

You won't regret the swap to Linux but for a week or two... then you'll learn to love it. When this T480 dies (In like 7 years - as it's fully user upgrade-able and fixable) I will see what Apple is doing with laptops at that time... best part I paid $700 brand new for this T480 with a 3 year full in-home warranty.... crazy! Replaceable batteries (external and internal), ram, ssd, keyboard (literally 2 screws and the entire thing pops out), trackpad, ENTIRE SCREEN. Linux is buttery smooth. 0 issues so far with it other than figuring out with distro and DE I wanted to land on.

All that said I do still have a custom built Windows desktop that I use when I need to hit things hard.... but Apple's lost their lead in the laptop market honestly since 2015.... it's been nothing but downhill from then on.

 

[Zdigital2015]

And it will still be the end of the Mac Desktop.

Why do you even care? It doesn’t affect you because I thought you were moving to an AMD Threadripper system And Windows...like, that’s all I have heard you ramble on about in the Mac Pro forums since the 7,1 specs were announced. “The Mac Pro is twice the price for half the performance!” “No PCIe 4.0, this is a dead end machine before it even ships!” “Why would anyone buy a 28 core Intel when you can buy a 64-core TR3 for half the cost!”. Seriously, why are you here?