Kuo: Apple Will Only Produce Up to 80,000 Vision Pro Headsets for Launch, Sellout Likely

[delsoul]

I’ll only buy one if I can be promised I get to be this guy…

 

[subjonas]

Vision Pro is the beginning of Apple's permanent decline. It finally shows Apple's unrestricted greed
and Apple's desire to make people unable to separate reality/real world with meta/fake world.

I could only get about halfway through that 20 min video, and I really tried to keep going (I think this is the second time I’ve tried getting through that video actually). But the Youtuber made so many presumptions about so many things, with no substance or new insight (maybe it was all in the second half of the video but I couldn’t get myself to spend 10 more minutes of my life to see). And very over-the-top images. I’m pretty sure the Youtuber was just trying to feed off people’s fears and get them going in order to get views, ie. sensationalism. The title “It’s worse than you think” is pretty telling.

Why do you say Apple wants to make people unable to separate the real world from virtual? Because the Vision Pro is an augmented reality device that does video pass-through? Don’t you think that’s just a limitation of technology? I think if Apple could have made a transparent headset with digital overlay, with sharp clarity/visibility, they would have done so and forwent VR. Judging by the marketing, I don’t think Apple is interested in VR, it’s more of an afterthought—main interest is AR.

 

[Realityck]

Judging by the marketing, I don’t think Apple is interested in VR, it’s more of an afterthought—main interest is AR.

Since Apple wants to push spatial computing of course it’s pushing AR. Tim Cook said that at WWDC 2023 keynote when he finally introduced the Vision Pro that it was a AR platform. The following Sept 2023 PixelPlex article describes usage examples.

Vision Pro is positioned as an extension and even a replacement of a traditional desktop. However, at present, Apple doesn’t anticipate that the headset will have the same immediate impact that the iPhone had. Initially, there was an expectation to sell around 3 million units annually and that projection has since been reduced to 900,000 units.

Of course at this time whether the VP is an actual desktop replacement with the device facts as we know them currently just before it ships is a whole another debate.

 

[NT1440]

I could only get about halfway through that 20 min video, and I really tried to keep going (I think this is the second time I’ve tried getting through that video actually). But the Youtuber made so many presumptions about so many things, with no substance or new insight (maybe it was all in the second half of the video but I couldn’t get myself to spend 10 more minutes of my life to see). And very over-the-top images. I’m pretty sure the Youtuber was just trying to feed off people’s fears and get them going in order to get views, ie. sensationalism. The title “It’s worse than you think” is pretty telling.

Why do you say Apple wants to make people unable to separate the real world from virtual? Because the Vision Pro is an augmented reality device that does video pass-through? Don’t you think that’s just a limitation of technology? I think if Apple could have made a transparent headset with digital overlay, with sharp clarity/visibility, they would have done so and forwent VR. Judging by the marketing, I don’t think Apple is interested in VR, it’s more of an afterthought—main interest is AR.

The very fact that Apple has put in the expensive external display (its foveated) to allow *other people* to maintain a sense of connection proves that their intention is to NOT close you off from the real world.

The thing that makes me laugh about the VR people (whom 90% can’t seem to realize they are focused solely on gaming) is that they can’t seem to wrap their heads around Apple’s focus on this device and keep comparing them directly to their gaming rigs. They miss the point, they are the “hardware keyboard” camp of the original iPhone.

AVP will not be a smash success, it’s the MVP (minimal viable product) for the *end goal* Apple has in mind. The display technology simply doesn’t exist today for the true fruition of what Apple is building, the AR glasses. But you have to have the ecosystem, the API’s, the understanding of the UX/UI in the meantime while the rest of the hardware is being developed in the industry.

Apple is planting their flag in the future, and the overlooked but *massively* important philosophy of privacy is why all the other companies will fail. Apple has made it crystal clear that gaze data is private, which immediately cuts the legs off the advertising approach the rest of the industry is going to rely on with their “me too” hardware to keep costs down.

It’s the same approach the TV industry has now. You can buy a 55” TV for basically cost of manufacturing…because the manufacturers are betting that they’ll recoup revenue through advertising data down the road (I hate “smart TVs”). Visio is an example who specifically laid out in financial earning calls that they make more money off ads now than they do from the hardware they sell. Expect AR headsets from Facebook, Amazon, etc to follow that same business model.

 

[Arsenikdote]

It's always a balancing line with waiting for them to make the next gen better. I have found that life is too short to always be waiting for something better, especially with purchases that won't last more than 5 years (at most). Maybe that just comes with age, or maybe it is my personality type.

I also grant that this could turn out to be the first time I have regret and I might look back and "wished I had waited" but I just don't think I will. I set my expectations fairly good going into things.

I was VERY happy with the iPhone. Was I thrilled when they added 3G, copy/paste, the App Store, and all of the many many features of follow on versions? Yes! But it never once detracted from the original iPhone. It was an experience like nothing I had ever had, and it was utterly and completely worth it for ME to get gen 1. That was even being a person who had used smartphones for years prior (HP, Palm, etc...) so it wasn't like I was blown away by the concept, I was blown away by Apple's step into the market.

I expect the same will be true for this headset. I KNOW the next gen will be better and yet I also believe I will utterly enjoy gen 1 for every minute I have it until it is replaced with gen XYZ.

EDIT: Also, for clarification, it is not that I never wait for another gen of a product. When Apple released their AirPods Max I had just replaced my headphones so I didn't get them. I want them but am totally waiting for Gen 2 to be released before I get them so I get all of the new features in the AirPods Pro 2.

I was out of town last weekend when my Vision Pro showed up, but I picked it up yesterday and have used it for about two hours in total since. I am LOVING every second of it. So very happy I got this and am not waiting for a future generation. So much to do and use with this thing as-is. My wife is good with tech but not a techy. So many times of using it she is saying things like "holy ****" and almost catching her breath. After 10 minutes of using it she asked how much it cost and if we would get another one for her 🤣