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Kuo: Apple's AR/VR Headset Announcement is 'Last Hope' for Persuading Investors It Will Be the Next 'Star Product'

Without content, this will flop like a week dead carp in a drying up lake. Apples insistence on building metal instead of a standard API will substantially limit content, especially games. Business apps like CAD or 3d modeling won't have critical mass, and this won't go anywhere.

Honestly, the best thing they could do is to put it back in the lab. Right now it's like blockchain - a solution in search of a problem.
 
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Here's a unique solution for you ... live in the real world.

Are most people's lives so miserable that escaping from reality now is their preferred existence?
 
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Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
To be honest when was the last time a first gen Apple product hadn't launched half baked? The first gen curse has always been a thing

  • 1st gen iMac came with this meme of a mouse:
138404-usbmouse_original.jpg

  • 1st gen iPod could only be used on macOS. Windows support didn't come until a year later
  • 1st gen iPhone launched without copy+paste and without an app store, and used 2G which was slow as hell
  • 1st gen Intel Macs were slow as hell and quickly replaced
  • 1st gen iPad had no cameras
  • 1st gen Apple Watch wasn't water resistant
  • 1st gen AirPods couldn't use Siri through voice and also had high audio latency
  • 1st gen HomePod was hilariously overpriced
  • Apple Card launched without credit reporting, and it's application process was incredibly bad with hardly anyone being able to get the card
  • 1st gen Apple Silicon Macs had bluetooth connectivity issues
There's always growing pains when Apple releases a new product category, but they won't learn until they actually launch it, give a post mortem, then release a refresh shortly after that fixes those problems and make it a product people want. It's always 2nd Gen where they get their footing and when the product really kicks off.

Apple Reality will have it's problems no doubt, the lack of software, the absurd price tag, the lack of PCVR compatibility, but until the thing actually launches we won't know what will happen. Remember everyone thought the iPhone was gonna be a flop because it had no buttons and an absurd price tag being $500 (when most phones back then rarely passed $200) and despite that it roared off the shelves and a year later they released the iPhone 3G that slashed the price in half. Give it time.

(God damn I've become an Apple evangelist)
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Do you want to claim the MBA1 or 2 as launched "half-baked?"


Far from half-baked when your list is looked at as a whole. You also fail to recognize some of these releases were marketing decision with the full intent of encouraging upgrades.

And no, most people did not think iPhone 1 would be a flop
 
Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
ignore him. VR haters will always shift goalposts. People who hate VR never even put a headset on to begin with. I experienced this when Half Life Alyx got announced and there was pushback because it was a VR only game, but the moment they actually got a VR headset and tried some actually good software their opinions instantly changed.

Observe:

View attachment 2184987

Guarantee the moment people try on Apple Reality they'll probably go through the same character development, just like when people hated the iPhone and iPad at first until they actually tried it.
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Best part is you think people want to block off their vision for VR.
 
mozumder said:
The fundamental design flaw of VR is that it blocks off vision.

No one wants to have their vision blocked off. It's not a viable concept. It will NEVER be viable.

Half the people are going to get dizzy, the other half are gonna knock over things and get injured.

Atari went through these concepts back in the 90's when they were developing a VR headset for their Jaguar game console. They ultimately gave up because of the injury liability problems.

Anyone that thinks VR will happen just isn't a smart product designer.
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The fundamental flaw is emotionally healthy people do not choose to live in a fantasy world.

On a consumer level, It's a tool to recruit Zombies.
 
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mburkhard said:
Oh it's very viable, just not for use cases Apple has any meaningful marketshare; Gaming and professional training. VR has gotten quite big in gaming, the only thing holding people back is money. Good VR gaming headsets are still rather expensive and progress is VERY slow.
And then there's training for all kinds of professions. Flying for example, VR is fantastic for learning to fly, an absolutely brilliant way in fact. But high-end gaming headsets used for this (high resolution to read instruments and more field of view than the measly 120° tops you usually get) are still very rare with slow progress and hugely expensive. But the concept is proven and very well accepted by the aviation industry as an example.

So you're completely wrong in saying that it would never be viable. Well it already is, just not for Apple. And it's Apple's fault alone that they never wanted to enter any of these markets in the past few years.
Yes it's not a mass market thing, I give you that. But does everything being developed these days need to be mass market in iPhone proportions to be considered "viable"? I hope not!
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Nobody uses VR for gaming. Literally zero people.
Chazak said:
Yes, it will sink. No, it will not take Cook down with it
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Im leaning more towards it taking down Tim Cook if they actually ever release it.
 
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Chazak said:
Do you want to claim the MBA1 or 2 as launched "half-baked?"
Click to expand...

I mean it kinda was. The thing costed almost as much as a Macbook Pro at first and had piss for storage. Wasn't until later revisions that it got better as it got cheaper and storage was greatly increased.

Chazak said:
Far from half-baked when your list is looked at as a whole. You also fail to recognize some of these releases were marketing decision with the full intent of encouraging upgrades.
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Bluetooth connectivity issues with Apple Silicon Macs were a marketing decision? 🤨

Chazak said:
And no, most people did not think iPhone 1 would be a flop
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*ahem*

www.forbes.com

These Are The People Who Thought The iPhone Would Fail

Here's what some prominent critics thought of the first iPhone, announced ten years ago today
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

 
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DarthBuzzard said:
Millions of people actively use VR for gaming.
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Yup, on platforms that have a large audience of gamers so that even a small percentage of that total population justifies building VR content.

Apple? Gaming? Nope, not going to happen. Oh, we'll get some small indie things, but AAA titles from major franchise/studios? Nope. They're not going to port to a proprietary platform that has nothing in common with the other 98% of their market. Yes Metal is impressive, yes, the M1 GPU is impressive. But so is a Ferrari on a desert island. Without a gas station, it's not going anywhere.
 
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Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
SEE WHAT I MEAN APPLE KNOWLEDGE NAVIGATOR?! NO ONE LISTENS TO ME!

I swear to god you VR Haters are gonna cause me to have a deep vein thrombosis
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I think it would be interesting to know how many people are ACTIVELY using VR for gaming. I'm sure somewhere, they're counting me in the numbers maybe even twice or more. But, I sold my VR sets long ago due to the problems of motion sickness (that could not be overcome by any equipment I owned). Similarly, how many people who have purchased VR equipment for business use cases (like engineers, architects, etc.) are counted in the lists of VR owners for gaming?

I could be very wrong, but I expect that the number of people who regularly play VR games is microcosmically small versus the number of people who regularly play video games of some kind, whether on PCs, consoles, or casually on computers. I expect that the number of VR headsets and kits sitting idly in a corner, in one of those "PreOwned" boxes lining the ceiling of a GameStop, or sitting in some case at a pawn shop is higher than the number of VR headsets being actively used.
 
The key question should be, “What problem does it solve for the average consumer in a significant way right now.” while knowing full well that other uses will grow organically out of the product in time if it has fulfilled its primary mission. I personally am having a really hard time figuring out the problem it solves. Admittedly, I’m getting old and cranky, but I’m still grasping for a reason for this thing to exist.
 
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kingfish78 said:
I think it would be interesting to know how many people are ACTIVELY using VR for gaming. I'm sure somewhere, they're counting me in the numbers maybe even twice or more.
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As I said earlier in the thread SteamVR has over 100 million monthly users. But of course NO ONE LISTENS TO ME WHEN IT COMES TO VR ON THIS FORUM

Why do I even try?

kingfish78 said:
But, I sold my VR sets long ago due to the problems of motion sickness (that could not be overcome by any equipment I owned).
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What headset?

kingfish78 said:
Similarly, how many people who have purchased VR equipment for business use cases (like engineers, architects, etc.) are counted in the lists of VR owners for gaming?
Click to expand...

VR is more than gaming not everything is on gaming storefronts. AutoCAD has a VR client and many businesses have proprietary software. I don't know how many times I gotta explain this.

kingfish78 said:
I could be very wrong, but I expect that the number of people who regularly play VR games is microcosmically small versus the number of people who regularly play video games of some kind, whether on PCs, consoles, or casually on computers. I expect that the number of VR headsets and kits sitting idly in a corner, in one of those "PreOwned" boxes lining the ceiling of a GameStop, or sitting in some case at a pawn shop is higher than the number of VR headsets being actively used.
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Once again: 30 million Quest 2s sold, over 100 million monthly SteamVR users

I swear to god if I could loan you guys my Quest 2 and gaming PC so you could try Half Life Alyx I would.
 
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It will be a landmark product that will begin slowly and then accelerate into a hit product category. I will be an early adopter, just for the fun of it.
 
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Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
As I said earlier in the thread SteamVR has over 100 million monthly users. But of course NO ONE LISTENS TO ME WHEN IT COMES TO VR ON THIS FORUM
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That number is VERY misleading. If you have a VR unit of ANY kind plugged into a USB port on your PC and you open Steam, then you're counted as part of the 100 million you cite. It DOES NOT mean that someone has actually logged into Steam and played a VR game for any significant amount of time during the month.

Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
What headset?
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As I mentioned before, I've owned both a Valve Index setup and the First and Second gen PSVR sets. (Did not buy PSVR2 for PS5.)

Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
VR is more than gaming not everything is on gaming storefronts. AutoCAD has a VR client and many businesses have proprietary software. I don't know how many times I gotta explain this.
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I don't disagree. But, you've made the point that VR gaming is massive and that we are somehow missing that fact. I'm saying that I'm not so sure. My point in questioning how many non-gaming-use owners get calculated is for that very reason. I know that my office alone owns a dozen or so VR units for use by the engineers or architects, etc. We have regular meetings where these headsets (Oculus Quest 2) are used for virtual BIM walkthroughs for "pre-visualization." Last use - about a month ago - I still had the same issues of motion sickness.

Spaceboi Scaphandre said:
Once again: 30 million Quest 2s sold, over 100 million monthly SteamVR users

I swear to god if I could loan you guys my Quest 2 and gaming PC so you could try Half Life Alyx I would.
Click to expand...
Those numbers again are misleading. If we are honest about it... VR is a VERY, VERY niche thing. Of those 30 million units sold, I expect that a good number of them are being used by businesses as discussed by both of us. And the 100 million Steam VR users is a marketing number and not an honest representation (for reasons already stated).

None of this is to say that for some people VR gaming is their favorite thing. Great for them, and clearly for you. But, for the rest of us, it's a technology that, while admittedly has come a long way recently, still has MAJOR hurdles to overcome and revolutionary technological advancements needed to be an everyday tool.

The best technology is technology that integrates seamlessly and makes life easier without thinking about it. I own an Apple Watch because it provides rich health tracking, alerts, and basic notifications without being intrusive in my daily life. I can go to dinner without needing to carry my phone, because I can receive critical notifications discreetly on my wrist, while also tracking the number of steps I walked, flights of stairs I climbed, general aerobic fitness, heart rate, and any other critical deviations in my health status without ever having to do anything. AR/VR isn't doing that YET.

As I mentioned in another post, I've owned the North Focals, and they were actually pretty good as far as an AR "HUD" screen for daily use. Their drawback was the battery life and weight. If Apple is serious about AR/VR, this is the direction they should be headed. They need to have a typical "glasses" form factor with HUD connectivity to our iPhone. Allow us to read notifications, emails, etc. and respond/reply by voice. Allow us to say "Hey Siri, what am I looking at?" and provide us with AR-overlayed field-of-view information powered by a visual search. And the key that will make it a MUST HAVE technology? Being able to track our eye movements to navigate the HUD interface. The navigation "rings" that other implementations have used have been cumbersome and inaccurate.
 
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