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Kuo: iPhone 12 Pro Demand Higher Than Expected

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TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a research note this morning detailing what he's seen with the volume of iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro pre-orders in the first weekend of sales.


Kuo had previously indicated that Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models placed the iPhone 12 at the top with 40-45% of inventory allocation (up from 15-20%). However, the strong interest in the iPhone 12 Pro in pre-orders has caused him to revise that split:
The iPhone 12 Pro pre-order beat our expectation because of Apple core fans’ initial preference for high-end models, the strong demand in the Chinese market, and the coming peak season demand in the US and Europe.
Due to the demand, Kuo sees the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro to each have approximately 30-35% share each of new iPhone shipments in this quarter. Meanwhile, Kuo also downgraded his expectations for the iPhone 12 mini with estimates that it will be responsible for only 10-15% of sales (down from 20-25%). Kuo cites weak demand for the smaller device in the Chinese market.

The iPhone 12 Pro and 12 are very similar devices, though the Pro model has LiDAR, a telephoto camera lens and more RAM. More detailed comparison available:


The iPhone 12 and 12 Pro became eligible for pre-order on Friday, October 16. The iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max pre-orders kick off on November 6.

Article Link: Kuo: iPhone 12 Pro Demand Higher Than Expected
 
Last edited:

iDento

macrumors 6502a
Sep 8, 2011
555
718
iCloud Servers
The majority of people aren’t changing their phones each year, not even each two years and they want to future proof their phones for at least 3 to 4 years before upgrading to a newer one.

Stainless steel, more ram and a better camera setup helps with that and apparently they have no problem paying the price difference.
 

GermanSuplex

macrumors 65816
Aug 26, 2009
1,152
24,637
I originally was torn between the pro max and the mini - the mini for the size and how it was quite an upgrade over my XR, but I really like the pro camera features. However, I ended up compromising and going for the 12 pro. I’m just starting on iPhone photography, but the Max Pro is just too big a phone. I love the size of the XR.
 

ghanwani

macrumors 68020
Dec 8, 2008
2,173
1,717
This is the forecast that matters more than the one from the Taiwanese carrier. Kuo knows the supply chain better than probably anyone else other than the folks at Apple.

I'm surprised he expects such weak demand for the 12 Mini. I guess people like me are in a minority, so it's a good thing I'm not in the business of designing things that cater to consumer tastes.
 

bobmans

macrumors 6502
Feb 7, 2020
349
894
Good for the ASP, was expecting it go down a lot with the XR/11 still being available at 499/599
 

adokeeffe

macrumors newbie
Oct 18, 2020
6
7
Not surprising the 12 Pro is in higher demand than the 12. Here in Australia the normal iPhone 12 sees a price increase on a carrier plan with Telstra, yet the 12 Pro is more or less the same price as the 11 Pro, so I'm betting more people are willing to pay that little bit extra per month for the additional features, and the prestige of having "the Pro one".

The double team of the 12 Mini and iPhone SE at the low end is pushing the 12 up, yet the previous Pro Max was already testing the limits of what people are willing to pay for a phone.
 

Relentless Power

macrumors Nehalem
Jul 12, 2016
34,673
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This is the forecast that matters more than the one from the Taiwanese carrier. Kuo knows the supply chain better than probably anyone else other than the folks at Apple.

I'm surprised he expects such weak demand for the 12 Mini. I guess people like me are in a minority, so it's a good thing I'm not in the business of designing things that cater to consumer tastes.

Bolded:

Kuo cited the 12 Mini would have weaker demand in the Chinese market, Even so, I think consumers have spoken, they want larger displays and bigger batteries, I can’t imagine any other reason why the Mini wouldn’t be sought after being consumers have migrated To being accustomed to having larger phones for viewing content. I think the mini will do well, but for a smaller segment demographic that want a smaller display and less battery life.
 

Relentless Power

macrumors Nehalem
Jul 12, 2016
34,673
36,120
Curiously and because of COVID-19, there are many who have more money on their hands that otherwise would be spent on travels, restaurants and partying. So if you saved on these budgets post, it stands to reason to buy a little luxury in form of a "Pro".

Actually, I disagree, I think it’s the complete opposite. Just because consumers aren’t traveling, or spending money, there likely conserving more versus spending, given the uncertainty of the economy has been completely up and down in North America. These are uncertain times for quite a few different occupations, and I think you have a lot of consumers who are ‘watchful waiting‘ to see where the economy rebounds, which transcends into they’re likely rationing their money versus actually spending it on $1000 smart phones.
 

BuddyTronic

macrumors 65816
Jul 11, 2008
1,264
887
This is the forecast that matters more than the one from the Taiwanese carrier. Kuo knows the supply chain better than probably anyone else other than the folks at Apple.

I'm surprised he expects such weak demand for the 12 Mini. I guess people like me are in a minority, so it's a good thing I'm not in the business of designing things that cater to consumer tastes.


Well I also think "Kuo" might be off about the iPhone Mini percentages coming up.

He knows the supply chain etc, I am sure, but he already is saying he was wrong about the 12 vs 12 Pro with a lot more of the more expensive 12 pro selling. He now says the mini will represent 15% only? I am doubting that. I think there has been a lot of people wanting a smaller powerful iPhone. That mini is VERY tempting. Big screen and small form factor. Very nice. Some people will really go wild for that one, and it's great that Apple is offering such a wide variety this time around.
 

Relentless Power

macrumors Nehalem
Jul 12, 2016
34,673
36,120
Shocking since Apple removed a wall plug and EarPods! Figured this would be the worst ever according to many people.

There’s nothing shocking about that. How many consumers are probably even aware that Apple even removed the EarPods and adapter other than those who visit tech sites? (Rhetorical) They Probably won’t even know until they open up the box and realize they’re not included. It’s a non-issue. [Those EarPods by the way, end up in a drawer anyways unused, especially with Bluetooth being predominant.]
 

iSayuSay

macrumors 68040
Feb 6, 2011
3,347
470
For customers who want at least 128GB storage and 6.1” display, it makes a perfect sense to just jump to 12 Pro instead. It’s only $100ish difference.

I mean it’s 2020, 64GB just won’t cut it anymore with 4K videos and whatnot. Now if you feel 64GB is good enough, the standard 12 or Mini is perfect and saves money.
 

itsmilo

Suspended
Sep 15, 2016
3,985
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Berlin, Germany
I mean if you really want 128 GB, then it does not make much sense to go for the regular iPhone 12 in my opinion.

i only use a little over half on my 64 GB iPhone at the Moment but I am not getting a 64 GB device in 2020 out of principal (waiting for the new Max - still expensive, but at least you get twice as much storage for the same price this year)
 
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ksec

macrumors 65816
Dec 23, 2015
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I mean the pro is very well priced, for $120 on top of iPhone 12 128GB, you get LIDAR, Third Sensor, 6GB RAM.

Especially when the old Pro starts at 5.8", which means you get a smaller screen as people prefer the 6.1". In that sense the $999 pro this year offer a lot more value than last's years pro.

That is mostly because Apple finally realise their previous pricing statergy didn't work well for Pros. And they have two years where Pros 's volume was a bit below their expectation. ( Hence the OLED volume penalty. )

Now the pricing is really trying to drive people just to spend that extra $120 more.
 
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