Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018

[MacRumors]

For months, many Wall Street analysts have predicted the iPhone X will drive a significant number of existing iPhone users to upgrade. The latest word from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, suggests the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.

Namely, Kuo said the TrueDepth camera system's reported production issues will be "significantly addressed" in 2018. He also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017, with next year's lineup likely to retain many of the iPhone X's appealing features.

Here's the excerpt from Kuo's research note obtained by MacRumors today:

The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.

Kuo estimated that once iPhone X's production issues are solved in the fourth quarter of this year, shipments will "pick up strongly" in the first half of 2018.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018

 

[Lesser Evets]

What's 2018F?

 

[Tinmania]

Dang this is making it hard to preorder.

 

[dominiongamma]

Guess I’m skipping the 10 waiting for the 11. Since in a couples months later in 2018 a newer iPhone will be out.

 

[Labeno]

When I order at 12:01am on pre-order day, I hope that doesn't mean I get delivery 6 months later.

 

[BoneCollector]

This is gonna be a tough wait.

 

[adepew]

What's 2018F?

Fall 2018

 

[slprescott]

"Kuo also predicted that new iPhone models in 2018 will retain the iPhone X's appealing features..."

vs. ... Apple removing the appealing features? This is an astute prediction?

 

[EvilEvil]

I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.

 

[Bane-Thunder]

Well I'm getting my X 256gb Silver for sure. And I'm sure since im pre-ordering early in the morning with my network provider ill get one on time for launch day. I'm in the UK so we don't get the crazy of the US and other regions.

 

[nburwell]

I'm still glad I went with the 8+. I'm okay waiting until next year when the second generation X is released.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

"Kuo also predicted that new iPhone models in 2018 will retain the iPhone X's appealing features..."

vs. ... Apple removing the appealing features? This is an astute prediction?

I detect sarcasm but unsure why. I mean Apple has removed features on superseding models before.

 

[MrGimper]

Glad I decided to wait until 2018 for the XI, and upgraded to the 8 Plus... I can enjoy all the A11 Bionic loveliness now.

 

[lexvo]

If the delivery of the iPhone X will be like Februari 2018 (or even later) then I think I will wait for the next generation (or buy the iPhone 8 now).

 

[Tom2893]

Guess I’m skipping the 10 waiting for the 11. Since in a couples months later in 2018 a newer iPhone will be out.

Thats true actually for people that upgrade every year. I'll be keeping the 10 for 3 years most likely so doesn't matter for me.

 

[brock2621]

What's 2018F?

2018 Fiscal Year

 

[Chupa Chupa]

When I order at 12:01am on pre-order day, I hope that doesn't mean I get delivery 6 months later.

You know I'm starting to wonder if all this hype about unavailability is starting to motivate people to just go buy an 8 and wait and X delivery availability will be not bad. I remember before the '96 Olympics all the news reports in ATL were "Don't drive downtown. There is no parking downtown. Don't drive downtown. Take Marta (public transport)." Scared the city s-less.

Well, my brother and I decided to drive down and see how far we could get. Turns out everyone was so scared of not finding parking or $100 parking that every open lot was half full. Lots were so desperate it was easy to find a place steps away from any venue downtown for $25 all day. So I'm wondering if the X is going to be that kind of situation.

 

[macTW]

The iPhone X. 2018 release.

 

[Blackstick]

I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.

You might be waiting, awhile. I'm with Marco on this one, that controversial yet tech-packed notch is going to make the iPhone look iconic and unmistakably an iPhone from 30 feet away, instead of an anonymous Android.

https://marco.org/2017/09/18/courage

 

[NinjaHERO]

Good plan. Wait for 2018 everyone, so mine ships right away. lol

 

[0924487]

2017 iOS devices are mediocre as expected.

 

[prosp]

What's 2018F?

2018 fiscal year, as opposed to calendar year.

 

[Adelphos33]

As a 6S owner, the right call this year has always been to get an 8+ on a carrier financing program and to prepay a certain amount (I did $200). I did that and am eligible for a new phone in May. When May comes, I can walk into an Apple store and pick up an X or keep my 8+ until the Xs comes out. In the meantime, I enjoy wireless charging, airpods, and the best camera available.

 

[rpat701]

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

 

[HallStevenson]

Now a whole bunch of "the 8 isn't good enough for me" folks will have to break down and settle for an 8 after all. Of course, they'll dump it as soon as the "X" is finally available too....