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For months, many Wall Street analysts have predicted the iPhone X will drive a significant number of existing iPhone users to upgrade. The latest word from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, suggests the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.

iphone-x-dual-lens-camera.jpg

Namely, Kuo said the TrueDepth camera system's reported production issues will be "significantly addressed" in 2018. He also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017, with next year's lineup likely to retain many of the iPhone X's appealing features.

Here's the excerpt from Kuo's research note obtained by MacRumors today:
The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.
Kuo estimated that once iPhone X's production issues are solved in the fourth quarter of this year, shipments will "pick up strongly" in the first half of 2018.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Says iPhone X Supercycle Won't Really Happen Until 2018
 

Labeno

macrumors 6502
Jul 21, 2008
345
1,085
When I order at 12:01am on pre-order day, I hope that doesn't mean I get delivery 6 months later.
 
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Bane-Thunder

macrumors 6502
Mar 12, 2014
395
435
Well I'm getting my X 256gb Silver for sure. And I'm sure since im pre-ordering early in the morning with my network provider ill get one on time for launch day. I'm in the UK so we don't get the crazy of the US and other regions.
 
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Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,834
7,394
"Kuo also predicted that new iPhone models in 2018 will retain the iPhone X's appealing features..."

vs. ... Apple removing the appealing features? This is an astute prediction?

I detect sarcasm but unsure why. I mean Apple has removed features on superseding models before.
 
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lexvo

macrumors 65816
Nov 11, 2009
1,360
458
The Netherlands
If the delivery of the iPhone X will be like Februari 2018 (or even later) then I think I will wait for the next generation (or buy the iPhone 8 now).
 
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Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,834
7,394
When I order at 12:01am on pre-order day, I hope that doesn't mean I get delivery 6 months later.

You know I'm starting to wonder if all this hype about unavailability is starting to motivate people to just go buy an 8 and wait and X delivery availability will be not bad. I remember before the '96 Olympics all the news reports in ATL were "Don't drive downtown. There is no parking downtown. Don't drive downtown. Take Marta (public transport)." Scared the city s-less.

Well, my brother and I decided to drive down and see how far we could get. Turns out everyone was so scared of not finding parking or $100 parking that every open lot was half full. Lots were so desperate it was easy to find a place steps away from any venue downtown for $25 all day. So I'm wondering if the X is going to be that kind of situation.
 

Blackstick

macrumors 6502a
Aug 11, 2014
847
3,789
Sunny South Florida
I'm glad I upgraded to the iPhone 8+. I will not be buying another iPhone until they remove the notch.

You might be waiting, awhile. I'm with Marco on this one, that controversial yet tech-packed notch is going to make the iPhone look iconic and unmistakably an iPhone from 30 feet away, instead of an anonymous Android.

https://marco.org/2017/09/18/courage
 

Adelphos33

macrumors 65816
Mar 13, 2012
1,189
902
As a 6S owner, the right call this year has always been to get an 8+ on a carrier financing program and to prepay a certain amount (I did $200). I did that and am eligible for a new phone in May. When May comes, I can walk into an Apple store and pick up an X or keep my 8+ until the Xs comes out. In the meantime, I enjoy wireless charging, airpods, and the best camera available.
 

HallStevenson

macrumors 6502a
May 1, 2012
525
318
Now a whole bunch of "the 8 isn't good enough for me" folks will have to break down and settle for an 8 after all. Of course, they'll dump it as soon as the "X" is finally available too....
 
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