Kuo: iPhone XS Max Significantly Outselling iPhone XS, 256GB Most Popular, 512GB Subject to Serious Shortage

[Baymowe335]

I disagree. It's inevitable that people interested in a new iPhone would bypass the XS and Max for the XR based on price alone.
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http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...i-smartphone-counterpoint-20180503-story.html

What does this tell me? The headline assumes people aren't upgrading quickly. That's based on quarterly total sales numbers, which also have no point of comparison other than y/y which Apple was largely flat.

My point is, there is NO DATA available to us that tells us of the 52M iPhones sold, how many upgraded after 1 year or more than 1 year.

These articles are just commentary on what is known.

 

[blairh]

What does this tell me? The headline assumes people aren't upgrading quickly. That's based on quarterly total sales numbers, which also have no point of comparison other than y/y which Apple was largely flat.

My point is, there is NO DATA available to us that tells us of the 52M iPhones sold, how many upgraded after 1 year or more than 1 year.

These articles are just commentary on what is known.

I'm sorry I don't have the literal proof to back up my point, but it doesn't take much to realize I'm correct. It's also a point made by respected people who cover technology very well, like John Gruber.

People are simply holding onto their phones longer as the innovations in smartphones are not there as before, combined with the lack of subsidies and the rising prices of these devices.

 

[Baymowe335]

I'm sorry I don't have the literal proof to back up my point, but it doesn't take much to realize I'm correct. It's also a point made by respected people who cover technology very well, like John Gruber.

People are simply holding onto their phones longer as the innovations in smartphones are not there as before, combined with the lack of subsidies and the rising prices of these devices.

John Gruber doesn't know anything either. All of these guys are guessers and prognosticators. I know the Apple numbers better than any tech analyst or even analyst covering Apple on Wallstreet. I have to because I own a lot of shares. My point is, let's not assume we know something just because some article says it's true, especially with Apple.

Remember the articles last year saying the iPhone X wasn't selling well and people won't pay $1,000? And sales were "lower than expectations?"

1) We don't know the expectations for any product, only Apple does.
2) Apple grew ASP to $796 in Q12018, indicating a smashing success for iPhone X.
3) Apple told us iPhone X was the most popular iPhone 3 quarters in a row (since release).
4) Annual upgraders may or may not change their annual upgrade habits based on price. They either might not care (Apple diehards) or are on the iPhone upgrade program, so they get a new one every year regardless.

 

[blairh]

John Gruber doesn't know anything either. All of these guys are guessers and prognosticators. I know the Apple numbers better than any tech analyst or even analyst covering Apple on Wallstreet. I have to because I own a lot of shares. My point is, let's not assume we know something just because some article says it's true, especially with Apple.

Remember the articles last year saying the iPhone X wasn't selling well and people won't pay $1,000? And sales were "lower than expectations?"

1) We don't know the expectations for any product, only Apple does.
2) Apple grew ASP to $796 in Q12018, indicating a smashing success for iPhone X.
3) Apple told us iPhone X was the most popular iPhone 3 quarters in a row (since release).
4) Annual upgraders may or may not change their annual upgrade habits based on price. They either might not care (Apple diehards) or are on the iPhone upgrade program, so they get a new one every year regardless.

The majority of consumers (I'm willing to guess at least 90%, if not more) do not upgrade yearly. You can argue against that all you want. Consumers do not feel the need to do so. Things now don't change drastically with the iPhone year to year. Consumers are tired of high monthly carrier bills which clearly spell out now how much you are paying per month for your phone. They want to pay off their iPhone's and upgrade when their current phone has serious issues. That's most consumers these days.

If you want to disagree with this, so be it. Take care.

 

[Baymowe335]

The majority of consumers (I'm willing to guess at least 90%, if not more) do not upgrade yearly. You can argue against that all you want. Consumers do not feel the need to do so. Things now don't change drastically with the iPhone year to year. Consumers are tired of high monthly carrier bills which clearly spell out now how much you are paying per month for your phone. They want to pay off their iPhone's and upgrade when their current phone has serious issues. That's most consumers these days.

If you want to disagree with this, so be it. Take care.

The point is, it's anyone's guess. It's not like I'm arguing 80% of people upgrade yearly...but we don't know the number, so why speculate it's any different than it's been the last 5 years?

I'm trying to get people off the guessing game with Apple, for a lot of topics, because it's constantly wrong when we get real data in the financials.

 

[blairh]

The point is, it's anyone's guess. It's not like I'm arguing 80% of people upgrade yearly...but we don't know the number, so why speculate it's any different than it's been the last 5 years?

I'm trying to get people off the guessing game with Apple, for a lot of topics, because it's constantly wrong when we get real data in the financials.

It's different because we aren't paying subsidies anymore, which previously enticed consumers to upgrade. Plus the changes are less so tech-wise year to year. Consumers are holding onto their phones for longer now, and hence why you can indeed concede that the percentage of people upgrading yearly is quite low. Hence why Gruber and other prominent tech journalists will simply proclaim this in iPhone reviews now. We don't need data to come up with this conclusion. Not everything will have real data to back up points. If you don't want to agree, that's fine, but the dots are there for anyone to connect.

 

[ipponrg]

John Gruber doesn't know anything either. All of these guys are guessers and prognosticators. I know the Apple numbers better than any tech analyst or even analyst covering Apple on Wallstreet. I have to because I own a lot of shares. My point is, let's not assume we know something just because some article says it's true, especially with Apple.

Remember the articles last year saying the iPhone X wasn't selling well and people won't pay $1,000? And sales were "lower than expectations?"

1) We don't know the expectations for any product, only Apple does.
2) Apple grew ASP to $796 in Q12018, indicating a smashing success for iPhone X.
3) Apple told us iPhone X was the most popular iPhone 3 quarters in a row (since release).
4) Annual upgraders may or may not change their annual upgrade habits based on price. They either might not care (Apple diehards) or are on the iPhone upgrade program, so they get a new one every year regardless.

2) ASP is average selling price, right? It grew because the phones were getting more expensive. I’m not sure how that correlates to a smashing success.

3) We don’t know what metric Apple places popularity on. You can’t take their words at face value. If you have been involved in company earnings calls or investment rounds behind the scenes, you would know this. We already know that the 8/8+ outsold the iPhone X in unit sales since they have been released

4) Plenty of people are on the upgrade program and don’t upgrade every year. It’s a win win if you do or don’t upgrade.

 

[FFR]

2) ASP is average selling price, right? It grew because the phones were getting more expensive. I’m not sure how that correlates to a smashing success.

3) We don’t know what metric Apple places popularity on. You can’t take their words at face value. If you have been involved in company earnings calls or investment rounds behind the scenes, you would know this. We already know that the 8/8+ outsold the iPhone X in unit sales since they have been released

4) Plenty of people are on the upgrade program and don’t upgrade every year. It’s a win win if you do or don’t upgrade.

That is incorrect procès did not become higher.

2.Asp grew because they introduced a new premium tier, the 512gb that has sold remarkably well and has beaten all expectation.

At the same time they introduced an new premium model at higher price point than last year and again this model has beaten all expectations, causing ASP to rise.

At the same time apple discontinued their lower price tier with the iPhone se and 6s, which will drive up asp further.


However by lowering prices on the 8 and 7, that might lower asp, depend on sales of said models compared to the xr and Xs.

3. when referring to popular in a sales context it only means one thing, sales.

4.that is inconsequential. You don’t know the number of iup customers upgrading but the programme was created to for customers to upgrade every year, hence calling it iup.

 

[Baymowe335]

2) ASP is average selling price, right? It grew because the phones were getting more expensive. I’m not sure how that correlates to a smashing success.

3) We don’t know what metric Apple places popularity on. You can’t take their words at face value. If you have been involved in company earnings calls or investment rounds behind the scenes, you would know this. We already know that the 8/8+ outsold the iPhone X in unit sales since they have been released

4) Plenty of people are on the upgrade program and don’t upgrade every year. It’s a win win if you do or don’t upgrade.

You mean the 8 and 8 Plus combined outsold the X? There is no data to support either single model outselling the X. In fact, the data points to the X being the most popular. Apple actually told us this 3 quarters in a row. ASP tells the same story.

I am on every earnings call. If you were, it’s clear the context means the X was the best selling iPhone. They even tell you the X was THE #1 in China.

ASP increased $100 per iPhone when the X was released.

Right, again no one knows how often people upgrade except Apple. We do know a lot of people bought the X or ASP couldn’t be $796 for EVERY iPhone sold. We also know because Apple told investors 3 quarters in a row and cannot lie.

 

[ipponrg]

when referring to popular in a sales context it only means one thing, sales.

Sales in dollars or units?
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You mean the 8 and 8 Plus combined outsold the X?

Yeah that's what I said. "8/8+". I meant that to be combined not individually. I can't find the Statista link for individual iPhone sales, so I can't confirm if individually one or the other outsell the X.

I am on every earnings call. If you were, it’s clear the context means the X was the best selling iPhone. They even tell you the X was THE #1 in China

Just like to the other guy... is this best selling in context of it has made the most profit or in terms of units? We went through this exercise before, and I will say I always speculate this. Reason being is I have worked behind the scenes with pitches and earnings announcements, and there's always a creative spin applied to this.

Surprisingly in my peers, I don't know too many that have the X. Most are either on the 7 or 8/8+. Some upgrade every 2 years despite being in the 1UP. Maybe we are outliers. Looking around in NYC subways I observe similar patterns.

 

[FFR]

Sales in dollars or units?
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Yeah that's what I said. "8/8+". I meant that to be combined not individually. I can't find the Statista link for individual iPhone sales, so I can't confirm if individually one or the other outsell the X.



Just like to the other guy... is this best selling in context of it has made the most profit or in terms of units? We went through this exercise before, and I will say I always speculate this. Reason being is I have worked behind the scenes with pitches and earnings announcements, and there's always a creative spin applied to this.

Surprisingly in my peers, I don't know too many that have the X. Most are either on the 7 or 8/8+. Some upgrade every 2 years despite being in the 1UP. Maybe we are outliers. Looking around in NYC subways I observe similar patterns.

Units, not profit or revenue, those use other terms.

You have to be very specific when it comes to revenue or profit, you need to disclose whether it’s gross or net.


Don’t think your going to fine many x or Xs in the subway. Even if your on the look out for it

 

[Baymowe335]

Sales in dollars or units?
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Yeah that's what I said. "8/8+". I meant that to be combined not individually. I can't find the Statista link for individual iPhone sales, so I can't confirm if individually one or the other outsell the X.



Just like to the other guy... is this best selling in context of it has made the most profit or in terms of units? We went through this exercise before, and I will say I always speculate this. Reason being is I have worked behind the scenes with pitches and earnings announcements, and there's always a creative spin applied to this.

Surprisingly in my peers, I don't know too many that have the X. Most are either on the 7 or 8/8+. Some upgrade every 2 years despite being in the 1UP. Maybe we are outliers. Looking around in NYC subways I observe similar patterns.

Your personal experience with your peers doesn't matter.

There is no statista link for individual iPhone sales because those numbers don't exist. If Apple doesn't report them, they are made up by someone guessing.

Cook said repeatedly (3 quarters in a row) iPhone X was the "Most Popular iPhone" and if you actually listen to the conference calls, he's asked several follow up questions and the context leaves little doubt the iPhone X was the best selling iPhone in units.

ASP essentially proves it.

I work in finance at a Fortune 15 company and we would NEVER allow statements like Cook made about the iPhone if they could be misconstrued.

It doesn't matter anyway. We have the numbers that clearly show how much impact the X had to ASP, iPhone revenues, and overall profit. That and every new iPhone is in the X form factor clinches its enormous success.

"The iPhone X was the most popular iPhone each and every week of the quarter," continuing a trend that began when it hit store shelves in November, CEO Tim Cook told CNBC's Jim Cramer on "Mad Money."

"The iPhone X has been a huge success and it's the first time since we split the lineup back at iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus that the top model has been the top-selling model," Cook said.

“On iPhone X specifically, Cook said, “I think it’s important to maybe emphasize again one of the things I mentioned in my opening comments, that customers chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each and every week in the March quarter, just as they did following its launch in the December quarter.

If customers "Chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone" how else can you interpret that?

 

[tooloud10]

Just because the list is not large does not mean there is no Market. That’s the point, not how long the list is. I just moved back from 8 years in mexico, not a long list of iphone users but there IS a list that buy through coppel, etc. making payments. Cell data is horrible.

Cell service? OK, but you DO Know a number of of places with cell service does not have data right? A number of people that have cell data do not have fast speeds? Lastly, not everyone has unlimited data. THAT’S part of where there is a market for high capacity phones. All of those together.

I’ve been to 16 countries. Not tiny first world european countries and MANY people live where unlimited data is not an option or too expensive.

So there ARE far more out there than you think.

I didn't say there was no market, I said there weren't a lot of users like you describe. As I said, the 512GB model exists as a halo device for people with plenty of money to spend. It's the same reason that a V12 BMW exists--it's not because many people really need it, but rather because enough people will buy it even for a huge price increase that it would be dumb for them not to offer it.