Kuo: M3 Chip Still Months Away, Entering Mass Production in Second Half of 2023

[NT1440]

So TSMC’s 3nm line has just been sitting there losing money since it came online at the beginning of the year? You’d think that would have made some news from their last financial call as the guidance would have taken a big hit.

I don’t buy this timeframe. Unless Apple is stockpiling inventory, which would be a dramatic departure from their model, Kuo is way off base here.

 

[Realityck]

So TSMC’s 3nm line has just been sitting there losing money since it came online at the beginning of the year? You’d think that would have made some news from their last financial call as the guidance would have taken a big hit.

I don’t buy this timeframe. Unless Apple is stockpiling inventory, which would be a dramatic departure from their model, Kuo is way off base here.

• 232 million iPhones, 61 million iPads and 26 million Mac and MacBook units were sold in 2022

Care to guess which product line TMSC has been busy stockpiling 3NM line. Hint it dwarfs the other lines.

 

[Realityck]

We're pretty much there, then. They should stop introducing new products like the 15" MacBook Air Pro with the outdated M2 chip.

What makes you think the 15" MBA deserves the Pro term? The 15.5" LCD display is suppose to be lower DPI, same res as 14" MBP per recent rumors.

 

[sideshowuniqueuser]

I believe that the A17 will soak up the vast majority of TSMC's 3nm production through Spring and Summer and therefore I don't expect to see serious M3 production until this Fall and therefore could see M3 not formally appearing in product until a Spring 2024 Mac event with the 13" Air (and maybe a 15" refresh) and the 24" iMac.

Releases of the first products containing particular chips were:
M1 November
M1 Pro/Max October
M1 Ultra March
M2 June
M2 Pro/Max January

Your thesis doesn't compute.

 

[spnc]

Yeah don’t expect M3 series until March of 2024, but you will get 3nm technology huge performance boost and major power efficiency via A17 Chip in the iPhone 15 pro. Apple still have to release the Mac Pro M2 Ultra before any M3 Apple computer is announced

Exactly. Was never planned before 2024. Always said it. Glad to see someone else with common sense here.

 

[segfaultdotorg]

What makes you think the 15" MBA deserves the Pro term? The 15.5" LCD display is suppose to be lower DPI, same res as 14" MBP per recent rumors.

They can't very well introduce a giant screen on a non-Pro model unless they want to ruin the brand like they did with the iPhone.

 

[Mr.Suave]

I want a 17” MacBook Pro frame with MacBook Air components inside and with all the free space… fill it with battery cells. I want a laptop that only needs charging every few days! 🤗😂

 

[Admiral Fart]

So TSMC’s 3nm line has just been sitting there losing money since it came online at the beginning of the year? You’d think that would have made some news from their last financial call as the guidance would have taken a big hit.

I don’t buy this timeframe. Unless Apple is stockpiling inventory, which would be a dramatic departure from their model, Kuo is way off base here.

Given current tensions between China and Taiwan, a dramatic departure from their model may be a good idea.

 

[svish]

Maybe the first M3 Mac might be the 24" iMac, released in October/November

 

[Predtek]

I upgraded from M1 Mac mini to M2 Pro Mac mini cos my staff needs a new Mac. But my 2016 MacBook Pro which is seeing minimal use will stay till They bring the M3 to MacBook Pros. It's just not a good time to buy new computers now.

 

[Wokis]

You're killing me macrumors 😄. On the one hand, I desperately want the 15 inch air, but on the other maybe I should wait a few months (or year?) for the air with the M3... If it really is a significant improvement, then it's a tough call 😟

It's "significant" in the way the A14 was over the A13.

 

[Dog Bone Malone]

Oooooooh. It's all going to go wrong! 😄

 

[Motorola68000]

I don't believe there is a delay in M3 manufacture. Its more likely that with the poor performance of Apple sales, they have a surfeit of M2 that they would like to clear.

 

[Realityck]

I don't believe there is a delay in M3 manufacture. Its more likely that with the poor performance of Apple sales, they have a surfeit of M2 that they would like to clear.

There is no factual information discussing M3. Just parties that assume that the Dec 2022 TSMC announcement producing 3NM SoC's is a M3 over something else that is also 3NM. Even these M2 comments are not taking in account the Fall's covid lockdown China that ended mid December effecting Jan 17 M2 Macs production which Apple warned investors about. Many other companies were impacted by that also. May 4th is when Apple will announce their earnings then you will know more of the details.

Apple to Announce Q2 2023 Earnings Results on May 4

Apple today announced plans to report its earnings results for the second fiscal quarter (first calendar quarter) of 2023 on Thursday, May 4. The...

www.macrumors.com

Apple once again declined to provide guidance for the quarter during its Q1 2023 earnings results, but in Q2 2022, the company reported revenue of $97.3 billion. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said in January that year over year, revenue is expected to be similar to the December quarter. Services and iPhone revenue will be up, while Mac and iPad revenue are expected to decline by double digits year over year because of product release timelines.

 

[eldho]

We're pretty much there, then. They should stop introducing new products like the 15" MacBook Air Pro with the outdated M2 chip.

In what way is the latest chip outdated?

 

[saintmac]

That is kind of what I expect too. Apple already switched the to having the iPhone Pro being one chip generation ahead of the standard iPhone variant. My suspicion is they are trying to release a Mac Pro and maybe Mac Studio on M3. Then later in the year update the non-pro Mac to M3.

I doubt that Apple would release an M3Pro/Max before the M3.
MnPro/Max chips are built upon Mn chip by adding more cores and extra features (encoders, more ram, more bandwidth etc)
Have Apple ever released an AnX iPad version of a chip before An (iPhone) version ?

I don't think the iPhone Pro comparison you make is equivalent. In the case of the iPhone it is the same chip (or maybe just a binned version) that is passed along to the following year's standard phone.
Something similar though would be if Apple released the 13"MBP with M3 and then the 13" air. But that 13" MBP with the old design and a touch bar is such a weird anomaly in their lineup that I don't think it will stick around for too long as is.

 

[Realityck]

In what way is the latest chip outdated?

There is no logic with comments like that. It was announced January 17 2023 for M2 Pro/Max based MBPs and the M2 Pro Mini. That is 3 months 5 days or 95 days old. At best its a misdirection campaign to impact sales of existing Macs.

 

[saintmac]

The only feasible M3 release scenarios in 2022:
1. M3 Mac Pro release later this year (in either M3 Max / Ultra configs or regular M3 with Max/Ultra update once they come out).
2. M3 iPad Pro before christmas.

Nothing else makes sense. The market is plummeting, while they still have a ****load of M2 stock hardware to sell. Even a Mac Pro doesn't make much sense in 2022 really, because that means new display - so another huge investment both on Apple and customer side.

I decided to wait for M3, now I regret it - I should have bought an M1 studio when it came out and just use that for next 7-8 years... I didnt get it because there was no Pro display release. Now I'm stuck waiting for god knows what and with no real schedule.

I don't think an M3 Mac Pro that would likely get crushed by an M1 Ultra Mac Studio or even likely an M2 Pro mac mini would make any sense either tbh.
M3 iPad Pro before christmas could be a possibility but they would also release at least a Macbook air or mac mini with M3 at the same time. I don't foresee a mac chip being released first in an iPad.

 

[saintmac]

They can't very well introduce a giant screen on a non-Pro model unless they want to ruin the brand like they did with the iPhone.

why ?
Pro doesn't have to mean bigger screen but more advanced features.
I personally don't feel like the iPhone Pro brand has been ruined by the introduction of the 14 Plus.

 

[h.gilbert]

I demand my M3 now

 

[pappl]

Rumored spring event. When?

 

[Mr Rib]

I don't think an M3 Mac Pro that would likely get crushed by an M1 Ultra Mac Studio or even likely an M2 Pro mac mini would make any sense either tbh.
M3 iPad Pro before christmas could be a possibility but they would also release at least a Macbook air or mac mini with M3 at the same time. I don't foresee a mac chip being released first in an iPad.

As I stated, M3 Mac Pro would most likely need to come out in Max / Ultra versions, regular M3 Mac Pro being a placeholder until they release Max/Ultra (yes, not the most sensible choice for a power user, unless Mac Pro comes with the rumored swappable "brain" unit - PCB with the processor / memory).

M2 chip debuted in an iPad Pro if I'm not mistaken, the release schedule makes it highly probable that the first product with M3 chip would be new iPad Pro. It's all speculation at this point, but considering how badly their products are selling currently, I doubt they are in rush to release updated versions of laptops with thousands of units not sold. This makes iPad Pro the first product to receive M3 chip more probable.

 

[Realityck]

As I stated, M3 Mac Pro would most likely need to come out in Max / Ultra versions, regular M3 Mac Pro being a placeholder until they release Max/Ultra (yes, not the most sensible choice for a power user, unless Mac Pro comes with the rumored swappable "brain" unit - PCB with the processor / memory).

M2 chip debuted in an iPad Pro if I'm not mistaken, the release schedule makes it highly probable that the first product with M3 chip would be new iPad Pro. It's all speculation at this point, but considering how badly their products are selling currently, I doubt they are in rush to release updated versions of laptops with thousands of units not sold. This makes iPad Pro the first product to receive M3 chip more probable.

During June 6th WWDC 2022 Keynote the M2 debuted on both the 13” MBP and the 13” MBA. It wasn’t until Oct 18 2022 that Apple announced M2 iPad Pro. So no Apple would not use the iPad Pro to show off the power of a new SoC designed for Macs. But that is an example of where M2 got a bad rap because the M2 iPad Pro performance was marginally better the previous M1 iPad Pro by forum members comparison.

WWDC 2022 keynote announcements: Which excited you most?

Today’s WWDC 2022 keynote announcements comprised iOS 16, watchOS 9, iPadOS 16, the M2 chip, the all-new MacBook Air, the...

9to5mac.com

Apple introduces next-generation iPad Pro, supercharged by the M2 chip

The new iPad Pro features superfast Wi-Fi 6E, ProRes video capture, a next-level Apple Pencil hover experience, and powerful features in iPadOS 16.

www.apple.com

 

[obviouslogic]

Yeah don’t expect M3 series until March of 2024, but you will get 3nm technology huge performance boost and major power efficiency via A17 Chip in the iPhone 15 pro. Apple still have to release the Mac Pro M2 Ultra before any M3 Apple computer is announced

The Mx Ultras are fairly expensive to produce, I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't updated with every generation. So, updated Studios with an M3 Max/Ultra in the Fall/Winter.

 

[SpotOnT]

I doubt that Apple would release an M3Pro/Max before the M3.
MnPro/Max chips are built upon Mn chip by adding more cores and extra features (encoders, more ram, more bandwidth etc)
Have Apple ever released an AnX iPad version of a chip before An (iPhone) version ?

I don't think the iPhone Pro comparison you make is equivalent. In the case of the iPhone it is the same chip (or maybe just a binned version) that is passed along to the following year's standard phone.
Something similar though would be if Apple released the 13"MBP with M3 and then the 13" air. But that 13" MBP with the old design and a touch bar is such a weird anomaly in their lineup that I don't think it will stick around for too long as is.

Ya there is a lot of logic in releasing the base chip and then building your way up to the pro/max then the ultra/extreme. Really get to double check that everything is working well and slowly add complexity as manufacturing costs come down.

At the same time you can argue there is logic in starting with the ultra/extreme and going backwards. As fabrication of these advanced nodes gets ever more expensive you can start by releasing the high profit items first. Not only are they high profit, but demand is low, so you can release them earlier in the fabrication process. Then release the pro/max and hey, maybe you will get some people to step up a teir because they want the newer chip. Finally, release the base chip. By that point fabrication costs have come down as yield improves. People who buy the base Mac don’t really care about having the highest performance product anyway - so you have maximized profit from those that do.

Both routes make sense to me.