That’s why I’m wondering if the new 3nm chips are destined for the 2023 MacBook Airs first.
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Kuo: New 14-Inch and 16-Inch MacBook Pro to Enter Production This Year and Might Still Have 5nm Chips
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CPU architecture and factory process are totally unrelated, as the rush to smaller processes slow downs as is natural (each time is hard than the previous one) wouldn't be weird if Apple, and everyone one else, started release a new architecture one year, and the same architecture on a new process later (there would still be performance gains).
People get into your heads that you won't be getting new macbook processors every year.
I’m totally fine with that— in fact, I prefer an 18 month cycle! Every year for Macs is exhausting. But still, I wonder what product we’ll first see those 3nm chips in next year…
You're speaking as if you know this for certain, but you don't--none of us do. Anyone who does is under an NDA. Since the M chips are based on the A chips, and the latter update yearly, it's entirely possible Apple would like to synchronize the microarchitecture updates on the M's with those on the A's.
Yes, we can't rely on getting a new node process every year. With that, there are technological barriers that are out of our control. But chips aren't process alone. They're process + microarchitecture. And a new microarchitecture does mean a completely new generation of processor, with new capabilities, even if it's on the same node process.
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I disagree and think that this winter (~October) we will see
- Larger MBPs in the winter to catch the Xmas period.
I expect Apple to release M2 MBPs on 5nm Q4. Yields on 5nm will be much better and Apple will make more money. Apple can always speed-bump MBPs in the spring of 2023 if 3nm yields are cost effective at that time. Or introduce M3 in the spring and then a speed bump in the fall.
Agreed, they could do M2/N5 MBP's in fall 2022, and then do an M2/N3 process upgrade in spring 2023. But I don't think we'll see the M3 microarchitecture (which should be based on the upcoming A16 chip) in the MBP until at least late 2023 (depends how long it takes them to apply the A16 microarchitecture to the Pro/Max chips)—at least for this upcoming year.
Eventually, they might want to get onto a cycle where we do see microarchiture updates to the Pro/Max chips scheduled for the spring. See https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...ps.2355531/page-6?post=31360680#post-31360680
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We disagree. Certainly 3nm will be a huge opportunity for the M series to continue to excel, but that does not mean that M1 to M2 is a very minor update. Even just the 20% performance alone is more than very minor.
We are also going from v1 to v2, so thousands of lines of code will have been cleaned up and/or modernized based on real-world M1 experience. Plus some as yet unannounced things like WiFi, USB, DDR, TB, whatever, will be updated; we will have to wait and see.
Lastly, there is a tiny chance that we might see port changes. Apple went backward with the M1 MBP and brought a huge loss of i/o capability when Apple removed one of the 4 Thunderbolt ports. I am hoping that we will gain that fourth TB port back.
Here's a possible update cycle that synchronizes updates of the M-series microarchitectures with those of the A-series chips on which they're based. If Apple does want to do this, they may not get things lined up until the A17 or A18 are released:
Note: A14 => M1; A15 => M2; A16 => M3, etc. The A16 will be in the fall 2022 iPhones.
A#: Fall
M#: late Fall
M# Pro/Max: Spring of following year
M# Ultra: Summer of following year
A(#+1): Fall of following year, cycle starts again
The above orders the release dates by chip complexity, which is what Apple has been doing thus far.
I left out the Extreme (nickname for chip expected to be used in the Mac Pro) because it's low-volume, and the most complex chip to design; thus I'm guessing it will not follow an annual update cycle.
Note: A14 => M1; A15 => M2; A16 => M3, etc. The A16 will be in the fall 2022 iPhones.
A#: Fall
M#: late Fall
M# Pro/Max: Spring of following year
M# Ultra: Summer of following year
A(#+1): Fall of following year, cycle starts again
The above orders the release dates by chip complexity, which is what Apple has been doing thus far.
I left out the Extreme (nickname for chip expected to be used in the Mac Pro) because it's low-volume, and the most complex chip to design; thus I'm guessing it will not follow an annual update cycle.
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Up to 18% CPU and 35% GPU isn’t exactly modest. These are respectable gains.
I would agree, but if I had work flows that I thought warranted a MacBook Pro, I would not hesitate to buy the M1 Pro or M1 Max. they’ve only been out for 9 months and are super capable devices. There is a considerable performance difference in the M1 Pro/Max and M2, not to mention the substantially more powerful GPU and much higher RAM configurations.
The current one is just fine. Overkill for most, in fact (e.g. I chose it over the MBA purely for the 16" screen and 32GB RAM, not at all for the M1P chip, as the M1 chip is even massive overkill for my use case).
The new one won't have a redesign, so nothing earth shatteringly new. The only things it could have that would make me jealous would be:
- Midnight color
- USB-A ports (highly doubtful)
- Speakers that don't sound muffled, muddy, hollow, and ridiculously, artificially (aka pump up the bass to 11,000 with a hidden secret EQ that you can't turn off, presumably) over done on the bass with spoken voice (again, highly doubtful)
yes it is that 35% GPU that I am interested in.
Really it should only be those who really need the power in a laptop who will be looking to the M2.
M1 is great for a lot of people right now.
In terms of cadence of launches, I fully expect Apple to be updating the MBP annually for the next few years, in order to cement their position as the leading laptop manufacturer.
So my bets are on October M2 launch.
Exact same chassis, screen etc.
Source?
And which other chips are shipping in 3nm volume yet?
TSMC will not lead their early 3nm production with higher end M2 Pro parts. They've never led with desktop or laptop parts on new process. Ever. it's ALWAYS mobile first, and there's no mobile 3nm parts yet. The reason: smaller chips can get better yield.
Google "wafer yield calculator" and plug in some die sizes and defect rates, after looking up what early process defect rates tend to be. It aint happening. 1: due to cost/failure rate and 2: its just not needed to blow everyone else out of the water as it is.
Which is fine. 5nm is still way ahead of intel for at least 12-24 months. M1-Pro/Max/Ultra were same 5nm process as the M1 from 18 months previous. M2 Pro/max will be on same process as M2 most likely. Which is 5nm performance.
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One perhaps fallacious argument being offered so far is:
With Apple being Apple, that's still a lot of money coming in. But expecting Apple to pay heated attention to the Mac line-up is optimistic and contrary to business sense e.g. aiming for Xmas trade. This isn't 2005, unfortunately. New Macs will come when they come. Apple is in no hurry. As 2022 draws to a close they will focus 100% on the new iPhone and services, which is where over 70% of revenue comes from.
www.macrumors.com
- iPhones get new chip updates each year.
- Therefore, there are new iPhones each year.
- M1 is based on the iPhone chip architecture
- Therefore, MacBook Pro 14/16in will get new updates each year.
With Apple being Apple, that's still a lot of money coming in. But expecting Apple to pay heated attention to the Mac line-up is optimistic and contrary to business sense e.g. aiming for Xmas trade. This isn't 2005, unfortunately. New Macs will come when they come. Apple is in no hurry. As 2022 draws to a close they will focus 100% on the new iPhone and services, which is where over 70% of revenue comes from.
Apple Reports 2Q 2022 Results: $25.0B Profit on $97.3B Revenue, Best March Quarter Ever
Apple today announced financial results for its second fiscal quarter of 2022, which corresponds to the first calendar quarter of the year. For the...
www.macrumors.com
They are big enough to focus on multiple areas.One perhaps fallacious argument being offered so far is:
The issue is that iPhone is 52% of Apple's revenue. Macs (ALL Macs, inc iMac!) are 10%. There's been a little growth recently, but otherwise Mac sales have been flat for over a decade relative to everything else Apple sells.
- iPhones get new chip updates each year.
- Therefore, there are new iPhones each year.
- M1 is based on the iPhone chip architecture
- Therefore, MacBook Pro 14/16in will get new updates each year.
With Apple being Apple, that's still a lot of money coming in. But expecting Apple to pay heated attention to the Mac line-up is optimistic and contrary to business sense e.g. aiming for Xmas trade. This isn't 2005, unfortunately. New Macs will come when they come. Apple is in no hurry. As 2022 draws to a close they will focus 100% on the new iPhone and services, which is where over 70% of revenue comes from.
Apple Reports 2Q 2022 Results: $25.0B Profit on $97.3B Revenue, Best March Quarter Ever
Apple today announced financial results for its second fiscal quarter of 2022, which corresponds to the first calendar quarter of the year. For the...
The reason they will update annually is that this is their big opportunity to get more than 10% market share.
Back when Apple was still struggling with Intel updates, I used to make a joke.
Tim Cook responds to further delays to Skylake series chips: “What the f*** has this got to do with iPhone?”
Well, that argument may be fallacious as well. At ~$35B in annual revenue, the Mac division, by itself, would rank about 100th on the Fortune 500 list. It seems surprising to contend a company that size lacks the resources to update four chip microarchitectures annually. AMD, for instance, updates a lot more than four chips annually, and does it with less than half the revenue of the Mac division ($16B in 2021).One perhaps fallacious argument being offered so far is:
The issue is that iPhone is 52% of Apple's revenue. Macs (ALL Macs, inc iMac!) are 10%. There's been a little growth recently, but otherwise Mac sales have been flat for over a decade relative to everything else Apple sells.
- iPhones get new chip updates each year.
- Therefore, there are new iPhones each year.
- M1 is based on the iPhone chip architecture
- Therefore, MacBook Pro 14/16in will get new updates each year.
With Apple being Apple, that's still a lot of money coming in. But expecting Apple to pay heated attention to the Mac line-up is optimistic and contrary to business sense e.g. aiming for Xmas trade. This isn't 2005, unfortunately. New Macs will come when they come. Apple is in no hurry. As 2022 draws to a close they will focus 100% on the new iPhone and services, which is where over 70% of revenue comes from.
Apple Reports 2Q 2022 Results: $25.0B Profit on $97.3B Revenue, Best March Quarter Ever
Apple today announced financial results for its second fiscal quarter of 2022, which corresponds to the first calendar quarter of the year. For the...
You're writing as if Apple can only focus on one thing at a time, and I just don't buy this argument. In a well-managed company, which Apple seems to be, each division should not need constant attention from the C-suite in order to operate effectively. Thus the fact that the Mac division has an even larger sister division doesn't somehow prevent the Mac division from getting its work done.
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One of Apple’s golden rules is they focus on one thing at a time. Since the start of the modern era for Apple, they have never refreshed every product line in one fell swoop. The most they do is refresh maybe two or three lines but that’s limited to very big events like WWDC, and often the refreshes tie into a single overall theme.
This rule of one-thing-at-a-time isn’t just about the launch event. It also covers the three or six months building up to that event.
I used to say Apple can’t multitask, and I think this still holds true. But it’s because they don’t want to.
not sure what the separate September and October events were then. Maybe I imagined those.
By definition, update means whatever buyers may perceive as an update; and yes, Apple does update the MBPs at least yearly, but more likely twice a year. The thing is, the argument that you suggest may be fallacious, "...Macbook Pros will get new updates every year" has always been a truism.One perhaps fallacious argument being offered so far is:
The issue is that iPhone is 52% of Apple's revenue. Macs (ALL Macs, inc iMac!) are 10%. There's been a little growth recently, but otherwise Mac sales have been flat for over a decade relative to everything else Apple sells.
- iPhones get new chip updates each year.
- Therefore, there are new iPhones each year.
- M1 is based on the iPhone chip architecture
- Therefore, MacBook Pro 14/16in will get new updates each year.
With Apple being Apple, that's still a lot of money coming in. But expecting Apple to pay heated attention to the Mac line-up is optimistic and contrary to business sense e.g. aiming for Xmas trade. This isn't 2005, unfortunately. New Macs will come when they come. Apple is in no hurry. As 2022 draws to a close they will focus 100% on the new iPhone and services, which is where over 70% of revenue comes from.
Apple Reports 2Q 2022 Results: $25.0B Profit on $97.3B Revenue, Best March Quarter Ever
Apple today announced financial results for its second fiscal quarter of 2022, which corresponds to the first calendar quarter of the year. For the...
The fallacy is that some folks think that update must mean a new chip or a new process or some similar quantum hardware leap. It does not. Update could be SSD upgrade instead of HDD, or could be a Thunderbolt upgrade, or could be a new titanium widget, or could be 1080P instead of 780P, or could be a WiFi upgrade, or faster DDR, or new USB support, or (most common) just a speed bump within existing chip architecture, or whatever.
Buyers determine update by their perceptions - - as guided by Apple's very complex marketing. And we dweebs on internet fora are indeed part of that complex process of building perception.