Kuo: No Apple Watch Ultra 3 Next Year?

[MacRumors]

There are currently no signs of an "Apple Watch Ultra 3" being in development within Apple's supply chain, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today. As a result, he believes the likelihood of a new Apple Watch Ultra being released in 2024 is "decreasing."

"If Apple doesn't officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it's almost confirmed that we won't see a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024," said Kuo.

If the Apple Watch Ultra is not updated next year, Kuo believes it is likely because Apple "needs more time to develop innovative health management features" and "address issues" related to micro-LED production. A new Apple Watch Ultra with a larger 2.1-inch micro-LED display is rumored to launch in 2025 or 2026.

This prediction comes just over a month after the Apple Watch Ultra 2 was released. Key new features of the Ultra 2 include a 50% brighter display with up to 3,000 nits of peak brightness, a faster S9 chip, a "Double Tap" gesture for interacting with the watch without touching the screen, on-device Siri, an increased 64GB of internal storage, and more. The original Apple Watch Ultra was released last year, so the models launched one year apart.

Article Link: Kuo: No Apple Watch Ultra 3 Next Year?

 

[AppleTO]

As we’ve seen, launching a new watch every year is kind of pointless. Two years would be a better schedule.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

It’s currently seen as ‘decreasing’ right up until just before the release next year when it will be seen as ‘increasing’.

 

[Docsta80]

Ultra 2 was pretty much a pointless upgrade. Will be happy with my Ultra 1 for another couple years at least unless some major features come sooner.

 

[Cristim74]

Kuo is getting bored. There will definitely be a new Ultra every year there will be a regular Apple Watch, even if the only change will be a new processor. There is no way Apple can sell an Ultra with a worst processor than the regular watch.

 

[centauratlas]

This doesn't make sense unless there are no new features in the Series 10. It seems very unlikely that Apple would release a Series 10 with features that outshine the Ultra 2 without releasing an equivalent Ultra 3. Given Apple's positioning of the Ultra this seems unlikely. Few outside Apple will know for sure for 10 more months unless there is a massive leak.

 

[ItsASpider]

Given the rumors that the Watch 10 will also be the last yearly Watch release, I'd guess this makes sense. Moving more to the iPad approach where a new one is released when the upgrade is reasonable is a much better option that - frankly - I wished they'd also take with the iPhone.

 

[Docsta80]

This doesn't make sense unless there are no new features in the Series 10. It seems very unlikely that Apple would release a Series 10 with features that outshine the Ultra 2 without releasing an equivalent Ultra 3. Given Apple's positioning of the Ultra this seems unlikely. Few outside Apple will know for sure for 10 more months unless there is a massive leak.

totally agree

 

[oofio2461]

Kuo is most likely wrong again, I think Apple will make another minor revision to the Ultra. I mean the same guy who said there won't be any iPads this year, is also saying this. Apple is way better at keeping secrets shut for years and Kuo needs to make money, so he makes misleading articles to get more clicks and hope we don't lose trust in them. Look at their track record for the last few months, mostly wrong. News of A(n) Apple Product not getting refreshed would prompt a lot of clicks. So we might get an AWU3 this year, if Apple keeps their yearly schedule.

 

[ReliableSource]

Hasn’t Kuo’s track record been kinda poor recently?

If they made an Ultra 2, I’d guess they’d make an Ultra 3 with the same case and slightly improved internals.

Watches seem to be on a three-years-with-one-design cycle, so I think it’d make sense to see a third version of the Ultra, like we had the Series 0/1/2/3-4/5/6-7/8/9, and next year we’re getting a new design for the Series 10.

If Kuo is getting his info from supply chain people, maybe it just seems like no news because the design will be the same as the Ultra 1/2?

 

[gaximus]

Not that I care, because I love my Apple Watch Ultra, but I bought it because the Kuo rumor was they wouldn't release an Apple Watch Ultra 2 this year. And I never upgrade between cycles (my bad), but my Apple Watch Series 5 wasn't holding a charge for a whole day anymore, and I wanted something better, and had really increased my MTB this year.

 

[phill85]

I have a series 4 & 5 Apple Watch ss, and an Ultra 1. You cannot just be out there buying these things every other year. horrendous trade in values, we’re talking 30 bucks on an 800 dollar watch the next year, and you can;t really sell them. So they have to slow down with releasing them because imho ppl do not buy these things as often as an iphone, they can’t!

 

[japanime]

There are currently no signs of an "Apple Watch Ultra 3" being in development within Apple's supply chain, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today. As a result, he believes the likelihood of a new Apple Watch Ultra being released in 2024 is "decreasing."

Something else that's "decreasing" is Kuo's percentage of accurate predictions. 🤣

 

[krspkbl]

There is no place for the Ultra with the Watch X coming either next year or 2025.

I think we'll get a new SE, a "9S" (same design as the 9 but new internals), and the X model which replaces the Ultra.

 

[Apple_Robert]

Don’t believe the prediction.

 

[Mr. Dee]

Ok, he is really making stuff up at this point. He said there would be no MacBooks this year, and now look. Also, Apple is gonna develop it in house first before they do trial production in China.

 

[blodyholy]

After using my AWUS1, and comparing it side-by-side w/a friend whom has the 2 — we’ve both agreed there is not a realized advantage (at least for our similar use case) between the two.

As someone who has gone from an S1, to 4, 7, and now Ultra; aside from added health telemetry, there has been no compelling reason for an upgrade (Having done so out of need due to damage, or finding incredible deals).

I’m definitely in the camp of thought where Apple should consider a 2, or even 3 year cycle. Looking at what’s about to happen to you poor MBP M1/2 users in the next week, something tells me that won’t be the case.

We wanted faster, quicker, *NOW* from Apple, and it appears the release cycle echos that; wallet be damned.

 

[Zest28]

Apple should try enter the high-end watch market instead.

You got crazy people who spend $50k on a Rolex which tells only the time, while it is less accurate than a digital watch and needs regular maintenance.

I don’t have the data, but I won’t be surprised Apple is the fastest growing watch maker in the world right now.

Would be interesting for Apple to make a $20k Watch of the highest end materials to compete against Rolex.

 

[Ma2k5]

Kuo is getting bored. There will definitely be a new Ultra every year there will be a regular Apple Watch, even if the only change will be a new processor. There is no way Apple can sell an Ultra with a worst processor than the regular watch.

I mean they sold like mac pros etc worse than MacBooks and have many times had product lines not updated while the supposedly less powerful lines leapfrogged them so it’s not impossible where it makes financial sense.

 

[blodyholy]

Apple should try enter the high-end watch market instead.

You got crazy people who spend $50k on a Rolex which tells only the time, while it is less accurate than a digital watch and needs regular maintenance.

I don’t have the data, but I won’t be surprised Apple is the fastest growing watch maker in the world right now.

Would be interesting for Apple to make a $20k Watch of the highest end materials to compete against Rolex.

Apple Watch speculation; 10 years on from the first predictions

It's 10 years since Jeweller first examined the possibility of Apple entering the watch market. While CEO Tim Cook launched the Apple Watch in April 2015, there had been speculation about the product many years before.

www.jewellermagazine.com

 

[jz0309]

Kuo is not what he used to be, not even 2 weeks ago he said no more Macs in 2023 ...
believe who/whatever you want ...

 

[spartan1967]

2.1” display is so juicy. Yes Apple, take your time & do it right. Those release years after 2024 will put me squarely in the market.

This with maybe blood pressure &/or glucose would be gravy. I would be perfectly fine with charging every other day to spot check my sleeping.

 

[sw1tcher]

Apple should try enter the high-end watch market instead.

You got crazy people who spend $50k on a Rolex which tells only the time, while it is less accurate than a digital watch and needs regular maintenance.

I don’t have the data, but I won’t be surprised Apple is the fastest growing watch maker in the world right now.

Would be interesting for Apple to make a $20k Watch of the highest end materials to compete against Rolex.

So Apple should bring back the Apple Watch Edition that had an 18-karat gold casing and sold (poorly) for $17K?

Imagine buying a $50K Apple Watch and then a few years down the road Apple makes it obsolete and you can no longer get parts for it or have it serviced. That's not the case with Rolex who has said "the availability of parts and labour is assured for every watch for at least 35 years following its withdrawal from the catalogue"

 

[centauratlas]

Apple should try enter the high-end watch market instead.

You got crazy people who spend $50k on a Rolex which tells only the time, while it is less accurate than a digital watch and needs regular maintenance.

I don’t have the data, but I won’t be surprised Apple is the fastest growing watch maker in the world right now.

Would be interesting for Apple to make a $20k Watch of the highest end materials to compete against Rolex.

They kind of tried it with the Gold Apple Watch in 2015 at 10k-17k I think. Now they'd have to have some way to upgrade the internals for at least a decade or more. With a Rolex or Piaget etc, you have a watch that might need adjusting every so often but one is talking decades and you can still use it 20, 50, or 100 years later whereas with the Apple Watch you'll definitely need a battery replacement every so often. To me, the health features, processor, display etc really need to be upgradeable every so often. Sure, you could still use an original Apple Watch now with a battery upgrade, but in 5 years, who's going to do the battery? Does it have the features one would want today? I'd say no given the improvements.

Perhaps if they made a case that could truly have the internals upgraded for a few decades, they could easily sell them for 20k or 50k if it was great quality with great materials (e.g. stainless steel, aluminum etc won't cut it.)

 

[Zest28]

So Apple should bring back the Apple Watch Edition that had an 18-karat gold casing and sold (poorly) for $17K?

That watch doesn't look like a high-end watch. Just put that Apple Watch Edition next to a $20k Rolex and it looks nothing premium like it in comparison.

Apple can do better than that.