Lack of hype and Apple's stock going down

[izibo]

ONLINE VIDEO WELL WORTH WATCHING
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147&pr=goog-sl

Yes, I've seen it. Again, the dollar is not BASED on oil. It is heavily influenced on it, as I mentioned previously. I think people do not understand what it means to have the dollar based on a commodity (as in the gold standard).

The very fact that the price of oil has fluctuated wildly over the past 10 years with respect to the dollar is a testament to the fact that the two are not based on each other, but rather influenced.

 

[ImNoSuperMan]

I think the lack of Hype for this phone is a little alarming. Apples stock is taking hits left and right. Why is this?

As a lot of other members told you AAPL prices going down has very very little to do with the new iPhone but a hell lot to do with the stock markets, Oil prices, US n World economy.

I`d believe you if you prove the AAPL is underperforming the stock markets. Since I dont follow AAPL or DOW for that matters a simple google search proves that AAPL is out performing the market if anything.

Here take a look at AAPL vs DOW. Hope you`ll get it now.

 

[eplchamps0304]

The first iphone had a lot of hype because it was a completely new product. Iphone 3g is pretty much the same, so people already know about, and there is nothing to talk about really.

 

[aristobrat]

The first iphone had a lot of hype because it was a completely new product. Iphone 3g is pretty much the same, so people already know about, and there is nothing to talk about really.

And even then (when it was a completely new product), Apple's stock didn't take off until the day it was launched.

IMO, there's still a chance that Apple's stock could do the same this year (take off on launch day), especially since it's being launched on July 11th in multiple countries (for some of whom it still is a completely new product!)

I guess time will tell. But based on what happened last year, I think it's a little speculative/premature to be making comments about stock performance based on iPhone hype two weeks before the launch.

 

[needthephone]

Stock markets have gone down big time since iphone 3G was announced. Another stock I'm interested in has also plummeted and its a great company .

Everything to do with the price of oil-

Oil is the life blood of the economy,

If you have to spend so much filling up your car with petrol theres less left over to spend on iphones, Ipods, cars, anything really. That is what the market is thinking and why stocks are plunging. A bit alarming.

Sorry nothing to do with no Hype in this case, just no disposable income.

 

[knelto]

And even then (when it was a completely new product), Apple's stock didn't take off until the day it was launched.

IMO, there's still a chance that Apple's stock could do the same this year (take off on launch day), especially since it's being launched on July 11th in multiple countries (for some of whom it still is a completely new product!)

I guess time will tell. But based on what happened last year, I think it's a little speculative/premature to be making comments about stock performance based on iPhone hype two weeks before the launch.

I think Apple's stock didn't take off immediately after the announcement was because of the price and lack of some features. Sure, it was sleek and multi-touch was awesome but a $500-600 price point and lack of 3G, not to mention having only the touchscreen keyboard, was enough to kind of make investors weary. But once it was launched and people saw how awesome it was and how well it was selling, investors ate that up.

Like you said, time will tell. And although I don't believe the stock will shoot up on launch day, I have a feeling the days following it will be pretty good. Imagine all the coverage of people waiting in line for 3G iPhones, except across the WORLD. The only kind of bummer, although it makes much better sense, is that since it's being released at the beginning of their fiscal Q4, we won't have a definite number of sales (unless Apple tells us) until October when they have their conference call for Q4. Last year since the launch fell on the last two days of the quarter it created a lot of hoopla and unrealistic expectations for how many iPhones were sold, which didn't help the stock at all. But it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[aristobrat]

Sure, it was sleek and multi-touch was awesome but a $500-600 price point and lack of 3G, not to mention having only the touchscreen keyboard, was enough to kind of make investors weary.

That's a great point!

To the OP's point that the new data rates are "laughable" and will negatively impact iPhone sales, you'd think that the original price point for the iPhone ($499/$599) was even more "laughable" because unlike the new data rates, the price of the original iPhone was totally out-of-line with the price of *any* phone being sold by *any* US carrier, especially for a device without 3G and a physical keyboard.

 

[Antaios]

It is very interesting though... The number of people I know that:

A) Know when the new iPhone is going to start being sold

and

B) Even know a new iPhone is even going to be sold

is WAY lower than last year.

I'm feeling like there will be no lines.

WRONG!! As a current at&t sales rep, and I've been on for the last 3 and a half years....let me tell you, OHH there will be lines! I have had more customers asking about the 3G iPhone than the original. Now mind you, ALOT of people are completely unaware of the mandatory $30.00 monthy data, and I do think this will discourage some people when it becomes "general" public knowledge. I have had customers come in to get a Blackberry Pearl or Curve and sometimes (not all the time) tell people they HAVE to get the $30 Blackberry Data plan and I have had these same people change their mind and not get the phone, and switched them to another phone. We get commission off of the monthly bills not the devices we sell. (For those of your who didn't know) Overall I do think there will be lines, the first iPhone lines were Mac Enthusiasts and people who will spend anything to own the newest and coolest devices. (few people) The iPhone 3G customers are going to be the masses who want to be cool like everyone else and thought they were being "smart" (read: CHEAP) by waiting for Apple to "slash" the price on them. I still have customers saying they are going to wait to get them when they are "free" with a two year contract. This is the same pattern that happened with the RAZR V3. People waited till they were cheaper, unfortunately they really got a "CHEAPER" phone. I don't think that will happen with the iPhone, but if they are ever "free" they might cost $60.00 or $80.00 a month extra. HAHAHHAHAA

 

[xploit]

I think that market conditions are a factor in the stock slide but only to a degree. I think the phone itself is lackluster. For this iPhone to have made a splash we would of needed to see an advancement much beyond what was unveiled. The keynote was anti-climatic. This new 3G is a refresh and definitely not an upgrade. Yes I know it has 3G and GPS but those are old news. Maybe Apple was anticipating this recession. The thing is is that the people who are most affected by these rising prices (food, gas etc etc) are those that would balk at a fixed higher monthly payment. I read an article about a month ago in Business Week that was about high end goods and how they seem to be recession proof. This new 3G may not appeal to those folks as a lot of them were original iPhone buyers and fail to see much of a difference. All they see is a cheapened up original. That said there will be quite an impact on other markets that the iPhone was previously unavailable in.Will that offset it's US sales? As a stockholder who bought a week prior to keynote at $188.33 I sure hope so. As an original iPhone owner I am deeply disappointed at this BUDGET model.

X-

 

[bitslap47]

WRONG!! ...

Well... I am 100% sure less people I personally know are aware of or care about the 3G iPhone than last year when the original model was launched. So that I am not wrong about.

I *might* be wrong about the lines... but last year I left work at 4PM EST, got in line at my local AT&T store around 5:10PM and was number 11 in line. Given even less people I have been in contact with are aware this time around, I'm not so sure yet that I am wrong, but I believe your experience as well... so we will just have to see next Friday.

 

[aristobrat]

For this iPhone to have made a splash we would of needed to see an advancement much beyond what was unveiled.

Out of curiosity, what qualifies as "making a splash"?

 

[tschur]

What are you smoking?

Are you honestly purposing that we switched from a gold standard to an oil standard as the basis of the value of the US dollar? Holy smokes...

There is no material basis for the US dollar. The US made a full switch from the gold standard to fiat money in 1971.

 

[Scooterman1]

There is no material basis for the US dollar. The US made a full switch from the gold standard to fiat money in 1971.

Thank you. If I would have posted that, it would have been considered argumentative. I believe that a lot of people aren't aware that we no longer have Gold OR Silver to back up every piece of paper money that is issued today. They haven't looked at the difference in a 'Silver Certificate' and 'Federal Reserve Note' or checked out why that wording was changed.

Oil affects everything and the ones that control the prices have a LARGE control over the world in general.

 

[BongoBanger]

I thought the drop in APPL was also due to RIM's conservative projections based on an overall slowing down of the smartphone market?

 

[WhySoSerious]

WRONG!! As a current at&t sales rep, and I've been on for the last 3 and a half years....let me tell you, OHH there will be lines! I have had more customers asking about the 3G iPhone than the original. Now mind you, ALOT of people are completely unaware of the mandatory $30.00 monthy data, and I do think this will discourage some people when it becomes "general" public knowledge. I have had customers come in to get a Blackberry Pearl or Curve and sometimes (not all the time) tell people they HAVE to get the $30 Blackberry Data plan and I have had these same people change their mind and not get the phone, and switched them to another phone. We get commission off of the monthly bills not the devices we sell. (For those of your who didn't know) Overall I do think there will be lines, the first iPhone lines were Mac Enthusiasts and people who will spend anything to own the newest and coolest devices. (few people) The iPhone 3G customers are going to be the masses who want to be cool like everyone else and thought they were being "smart" (read: CHEAP) by waiting for Apple to "slash" the price on them. I still have customers saying they are going to wait to get them when they are "free" with a two year contract. This is the same pattern that happened with the RAZR V3. People waited till they were cheaper, unfortunately they really got a "CHEAPER" phone. I don't think that will happen with the iPhone, but if they are ever "free" they might cost $60.00 or $80.00 a month extra. HAHAHHAHAA

dude, preach on....amen.

you speak the truth unfortunately and i tried to get a brand new verision 1 iphone about a month ago...no luck. now i must settle for the 3g version.

 

[Antaios]

Well... I am 100% sure less people I personally know are aware of or care about the 3G iPhone than last year when the original model was launched. So that I am not wrong about.

I *might* be wrong about the lines... but last year I left work at 4PM EST, got in line at my local AT&T store around 5:10PM and was number 11 in line. Given even less people I have been in contact with are aware this time around, I'm not so sure yet that I am wrong, but I believe your experience as well... so we will just have to see next Friday.

I agree with you that there isn't HYPE surrounding this one that the last one had, and to clarify my statement, MOST people are coming in the store asking, " So when does that new iPhone come out?" Versus last year EVERYONE knew the 29th was iDay. Which means you are correct, that the hype isn't there. The people I tell about the new pricing and the release date get all excited about it ( of course I didn't tell them about the required $30.00 package yet). You may also roll with a group of people with good standards and beliefs, (non-cheapo's) but trust me the cheapo's are biting at the bit for this fricking "$200.00" iPhone....

 

[butterfly0fdoom]

SJ told a complete lie when he indicated that it was now cheaper.

It isn't a lie. The iPhone is $200 cheaper. But the data plan, instead of being a rebranded Media.net plan, is AT&T's regular smartphone plan. Once again, no deceptions here. It's just that a lot of people thing that they're entitled to certain things that they're not, like refunds when products that ought to be given price cuts are given price cuts.

 

[mark34]

I just want an iPhone with reasonable wireless data speeds. Cool, there is a 3G iPhone coming out. I am happy.

It is unreasonable to expect the kind of hype associated with the release of the iPhone. That was lightening in a bottle.

 

[Scooterman1]

It isn't a lie. The iPhone is $200 cheaper. But the data plan, instead of being a rebranded Media.net plan, is AT&T's regular smartphone plan. Once again, no deceptions here. It's just that a lot of people thing that they're entitled to certain things that they're not, like refunds when products that ought to be given price cuts are given price cuts.

Most people today should look at what is known as 'Total Cost Of Ownership'.

But then again, you get more for the higher price.
At WWDC, SJ said that they were going to make it 'More Affordable.

Lets see. 8 GB = $199, Increased cost of Data Plan plus 200 txt messages = $15/mo X 24 months = $360. So $360 + $199 = $559. More Affordable.
Lie is a strong word. Let's just say that it could be considered misleading.
But then again, you get GPS plus 3G for that $15.00 / mo. UNLESS you live in the majority of land encompassed in the U.S., and are only served by EDGE. It would be interesting to see what population percentage of the U.S. is 3G.

Then again, maybe my math is off.

 

[agirton]

I dissagree

I agree with you that there isn't HYPE surrounding this one that the last one had, and to clarify my statement, MOST people are coming in the store asking, " So when does that new iPhone come out?" Versus last year EVERYONE knew the 29th was iDay. Which means you are correct, that the hype isn't there. The people I tell about the new pricing and the release date get all excited about it ( of course I didn't tell them about the required $30.00 package yet). You may also roll with a group of people with good standards and beliefs, (non-cheapo's) but trust me the cheapo's are biting at the bit for this fricking "$200.00" iPhone....

I disagree, I think that the reason those were so in tuned to the launch last year was because they were enthusiasts like us and read the blogs etc. Now allot more people want them, my source is my Mom, 3-5 friends, 4 clients, and some strangers that keep asking me when the iphone launches and if I think there will be a line, and if they can stand in line with me. The only Hype last year was amongst the media and us the enthusiast. There was a huge line at my local apple store, I showed up at 5am and was followed by 3-4 others in the next half hour. By noon the line was past 7 or eight stores and out the door, by launch it was way down the street. You can judge it by the lines, or total sales, or whatever, but from my conversations with non techie, non apple, non gadget, everyday Joes, and non techie clients of mine, I would say it should be a pretty good day for Apple. I myself still plan on standing in line for a long time. I enjoy Apple product launches and the time they put into making them an event. I was first in line for iphone 1.0 and I plan on being near the front for the iphone 3G.

 

[aristobrat]

Most people today should look at what is known as 'Total Cost Of Ownership'.

More Affordable.
Lie is a strong word. Let's just say that it could be considered misleading.

I don't understand the how people mix up the concept of a 50% MSRP decrease with the concept of TCO.

They're two totally valid, but totally different, concepts.

The original iPhone most recently sold for $399. The new iPhone 3G will sell for $199. $199 is "half the price" of $399. Period.

TCO is a valid point, and it should be considered, but it has nothing to do with the statement that the iPhone 3G is half the price. IMO, anyways.

 

[lsvtecjohn3]

Apple stock falling, good i'll go buy some more. the iPhone going to be in 70 country's there stock going to go back up

 

[Scooterman1]

I don't understand the how people mix up the concept of a 50% MSRP decrease with the concept of TCO.

They're two totally valid, but totally different, concepts.

The original iPhone most recently sold for $399. The new iPhone 3G will sell for $199. $199 is "half the price" of $399. Period.

TCO is a valid point, and it should be considered, but it has nothing to do with the statement that the iPhone 3G is half the price. IMO, anyways.

Cheaper, yes. But SJ said 'More Affordable'. He's a good salesman? LOL

 

[leodavinci0]

WRONG!! As a current at&t sales rep, and I've been on for the last 3 and a half years....let me tell you, OHH there will be lines! I have had more customers asking about the 3G iPhone than the original. Now mind you, ALOT of people are completely unaware of the mandatory $30.00 monthy data, and I do think this will discourage some people when it becomes "general" public knowledge. I have had customers come in to get a Blackberry Pearl or Curve and sometimes (not all the time) tell people they HAVE to get the $30 Blackberry Data plan and I have had these same people change their mind and not get the phone, and switched them to another phone. We get commission off of the monthly bills not the devices we sell. (For those of your who didn't know) Overall I do think there will be lines, the first iPhone lines were Mac Enthusiasts and people who will spend anything to own the newest and coolest devices. (few people) The iPhone 3G customers are going to be the masses who want to be cool like everyone else and thought they were being "smart" (read: CHEAP) by waiting for Apple to "slash" the price on them. I still have customers saying they are going to wait to get them when they are "free" with a two year contract. This is the same pattern that happened with the RAZR V3. People waited till they were cheaper, unfortunately they really got a "CHEAPER" phone. I don't think that will happen with the iPhone, but if they are ever "free" they might cost $60.00 or $80.00 a month extra. HAHAHHAHAA

I was under the impression that you are required to have a data plan when you leave the store, but you can go online and go into your AT&T Account under Add/Manage Features and remove the data plan. You can presently do this with the present iPhone. Will this not be the case with the new one, and how do you know?

 

[aristobrat]

Cheaper, yes. But SJ said 'More Affordable'. He's a good salesman? LOL

The ads plastered all over apple.com say "Twice as fast. Half the price."

That seems to match what Engadget has Steve Job's quoted as saying, which is "iPhone started off at $599 for an 8GB device, which now sells for $399 -- we want to make it even more affordable. I'm happy to tell you the 8GB model will sell for $199."

"We think the iPhone 3G will be affordable to almost everyone. 16GB model for $299 -- for that model we have a white one."

"The big news, is $399 to $199 -- we think we can check off more affordable.""

I mean, to me, that could't be any more obvious that "affordable", in the context that he used it, specifically referred to the price of the phone itself. Not the TCO.