Leaving Apple over ARM Based Macs discussion [merged]

[kitenski]

I switched from an i5 MS Surface Pro 6 to a 2nd hand 2.3 quad core i5 2018 MacBook Pro a few months ago. . Day to day I don't "feel" there is much performance difference. From my experiences so far:

Pros of MBP compared to Surface Pro 6

Final Cut Pro and the GoPro app for 360 movie editing
integration with iphone/ipad, SMS, Notes, cut n paste etc
multi desktops

Pros of Surface Pro 6 compared to MBP

No fan
O365 much richer experience
Battery life
Weight

 

[D.T.]

But, no, switching to ARM in itself won't make me dump Apple - there's no reason why any of the major applications I use shouldn't be ARM native within in a year or so - only a problem if Apple mishandle the transition so people are forced to buy ARM macs prematurely. Making sure all the Intel models get one last update this year should do it.

5 years ago, losing the ability to run (x86) Windows would have been a dealbreaker - now, not so much. #1 reason was to test websites in Internet Explorer - which was an absolute pain for quirks and outdated features - now IE is pretty much dead, MS is using Chromium, and my recent experience is that when I've tested web stuff under parallels the "bugs" have been false alarms caused by glitches in parallels. Also, I need to test websites/webapps on Windows touchscreen so I'm going to have to get a Windows 2-in-1 at some stage anyway. The last bit of Windows software I was using - Xara - has now been effectively replaced by Affinity Designer (it took a while, but it finally has arrowheads!) and - who knows - running Windows for ARM might even be an option for some things. Virtualising Linux is also useful, but for everything short of testing x86 binaries, ARM Linux can do the trick and most things are processor-agnostic. Anyway, it's 2020 and you can spin up any flavour of x86 Linux in the cloud for peanuts.

What will make me switch is if, when I'm ready to upgrade, Apple don't offer the form-factor and specs I need. Currently, the don't - the new Mac Pro is strictly for millionaire YouTube influencers, I'm already frustrated by the fixed screen in my iMac and a Mac Mini with a choice between Intel's most basic iGPU and a ridiculous external GPU is a non-starter. For other people, it may be the lack of a sensible desktop-replacement laptop with decent thermals, I/O and affordable internal storage. I'm not holding my breath - some of it is Apple being Apple - but ARM might actually improve some of those things - the GPU problem with the Mini is down to Intel not offering premium GPUs on desktop processors, and ARM laptops should have better thermals than Intel.

Terrific post, really spot on with my perspective (sounds like we have some use case overlap as well). Quoted the main three ideas, I'm down with as well: 1) major software has to be ready, 2) I'm using Parallels for some Windows dev work, but getting closer to using MacOS natively for things like VS (also see #1) _or_ having an ARM based VM option, and 3) I'm on a Mini, so I'd certainly consider an ARM based replacement, and I hear you about dealing with an eGPU (I'm running a couple of Dell 25" QHD which is drives nicely, but I'd like to go 4K in the very near future), so all aforementioned things working as expected, with the option for an ARM Mini with a much stouter GPU? I'm all in

 

[jerryk]

I already went Windows this year - built a cheap desktop RIGHT before the virus hit. If and when they send us back to work, like some of the others here, the X1 looks amazing. I ran Parallels on Mac for years. This desktop has opened my eyes to what a native Windows machine runs like.

While I love Mac OS and still use my MBP now and then - being able to work and game on a native Windows OS has opened my eyes. So much faster. (AMD Ryzen 3600x, 64GB ram, 2x 1TB NVME 2x 1TB Sata, RX 580) for under $1300.

Surface books are too expensive - with a MBP in my possession, I really don't want to spend $2k+ on a laptop.

While own a MBP 16 and 2020 13, my main machine is a Windows/Linux desktop. It has a Intel 9900K processor (8-core, 16 threads), 32 GB of memory, 2- RTX-2070 GPUs, 2- Samsung 1TB NVMe SSDs. Built it for about $1800. Run circles around the MBPs. But, portability with 2-27" monitors is a little lacking.

Was dual booting Windows 10 and Ubuntu. but going to put Ubuntu in a container and get back one of the SSDs for Windows use.

 

[edubfromktown]

I'm not a gamer and have no use for Microsoft hardware or apps other than Office (perpetual Mac license... which I use to interoperate with others at the day job).

I'm not holding my breath for a wholesale move to ARM-based systems either. It will probably take some number of iterations to get there and in the interim 2012 and newer hardware (2020 13" is my daily driver now) will be more than adequate for my needs.

 

[petvas]

The whole ARM discussion is based on rumours and not facts. I am not saying that Apple isn't planning such a switch, but I do believe that we don't know the details and in such cases details do matter a lot. For example we do not know what the roadmap is, or how ARM based Macs will run old software (emulation) and what the restrictions will be. We are also assuming that Apple is going to completely replace Intel with ARM, but this is certainly not the case, at least not for anything bearing the Pro name. I cannot imagine that Apple has already developed CPUs that can be as performant as Xeon CPUs, or the i7 and i9 processors. I believe that Apple will run in a co-existence mode for at least 5 years. At first we will see the introduction of low level ARM-based Macs (MacBook Air). The iMac, MacBook Pro and Mac Pro computers will definitely not get an ARM based version. They will remain Intel based for years to come, at least until the software transition is complete and the hardware is at least on par with Intel's offerings.
Now, when this happens would it matter to me? As long as I can run all my favourite software with no restrictions whatsoever and no regressions compared to the Intel Macs, I don't care. Also important that there will be virtualisation support and that companies like VMWare offer options for running Windows virtualised on a Mac.
MS Office should also get upgraded to use ARM and all major productivity software too.
I am sure though that Apple knows these things better than anybody else, since this is not their first transition, so I am not worried (yet)
I am excited about the future, even if I don't use low end products from Apple.

 

[marmiteturkey]

This feels like catastrophising to me.

There's not a chance that Apple will launch new Macs that can't run all the major apps at launch
Similarly, there's not a chance that Apple will make a switch that means major apps don't continue to support non-legacy Macs for several years.

They did this before when they moved from ppc - I lived through it as a Mac user - and it was very ,very well handled using Rosetta, long lead times and software partnerships. Most of us barely noticed. They know how to do this.

 

[UBS28]

ARM will go to the MacBook Air or 12” MacBook.

 

[vagos]

For those who do professional work, would anyone consider switching to Microsoft Surface Book for productivity if Apple decides to go full ARM with their professional lineup?

You think people use macs because of intel ? I believe that's wrong. If apple goes full ARM it will be able to offer much improved value products therefore giving people more reasons to switch to mac, not the other way around.

 

[sub150]

You think people use macs because of intel ? I believe that's wrong. If apple goes full ARM it will be able to offer much improved value products therefore giving people more reasons to switch to mac, not the other way around.

People are able to use Macs in professional work because they can use legacy x86 programs in Bootcamp. If your job requires those types of programs (these types of programs will NEVER be ported to ARM), and the new ARM Mac can't do run them at an acceptable level, then Mac's will no longer even be an option. They will have to get a PC to run the legacy programs (or an Intel Mac).

 

[ascender]

Nope, unless they royally screwed things up, which I don't expect them to, I'll stick with macOS because that's my preferred OS. I've been with Apple through the transition to Intel and I wholly expect them to have learnt lessons from the last time they did this sort of move.

 

[pshufd]

People are able to use Macs in professional work because they can use legacy x86 programs in Bootcamp. If your job requires those types of programs (these types of programs will NEVER be ported to ARM), and the new ARM Mac can't do run them at an acceptable level, then Mac's will no longer even be an option. They will have to get a PC to run the legacy programs (or an Intel Mac).

I don't think that you're going to see a mass migration of gamers without being able to run Windows.

 

[theluggage]

Now, when this happens would it matter to me? As long as I can run all my favourite software with no restrictions whatsoever and no regressions compared to the Intel Macs, I don't care. Also important that there will be virtualisation support and that companies like VMWare offer options for running Windows virtualised on a Mac.
MS Office should also get upgraded to use ARM and all major productivity software too

I remember both the PPT to Intel and the 68k to PPT switches. Overall they were fairly smooth (considering the PC world has never managed such a feat) - but in both cases it took a little while for some of the big applications like MS Office to "go native" and they certainly weren't native on day one.

However, the upshot of that wasn't that you couldn't run them, but that they ran under emulation (68k on PPC) or translation (PPC on Intel) and in most cases that meant that the performance was so-so: perfectly usable but not so impressive on your shiny new super-fast Mac. Of course, it depends on the application: in applications where MacOS or Metal or Core Audio etc. is doing the heavy lifting, emulating the app itself doesn't have such a huge impact. In other cases, where apps had written in CPU specific hardware acceleration support, that support was lost and that app took a big performance hit. Emulation might be a lifesaver in the transition period, but longer term success needs native apps.

I cannot imagine that Apple has already developed CPUs that can be as performant as Xeon CPUs, or the i7 and i9 processors.

...we don't know what Apple has cooking in their labs, and remember that building an ARM is "pick'n'mix" from various modules licensed by ARM and other design shops (some of which Apple has bought) so Apple aren't building these things in a vacuum. There are already 80 and 64 core server-grade ARMs and supercomputer-grade ARMs floating around - even the higher end Xeons get their performance by cramming on more (often individually slower, as a consequence) cores - and the simple formula is that ARM cores are smaller and cooler and you can cram more of them on a chip. Also, more room for vector processors, codecs, shaders, neural wossnames and other on-chip magic - and because Apple controls the OS and keeps its developers on a tighter reign than MS any app that uses the official OS frameworks should benefit.

My guess at an Apple "Pro" A-series chip would be something with an on-die "afterburner" or suchlike.

Plus, there are those benchmarks that show the A12X giving 15" MBPs with i7 chips a run for their money: yes, it's right to be skeptical about synthetic benchmarks but that's also a passively cooled chip in a tablet designed to run off two coins and a lemon vs. a chip designed for higher-end laptops with its fans on full blow. What might an A-series chip configured for, say, half the thermal power of the MBPs i7 do?

 

[KPOM]

To the contrary, I’m hoping that ARM will allow Apple to bring back the 12” MacBook, or another design like it. Apple is missing a true ultraportable now. I’m guessing that the 9W TDP of the Y-series chips is the reason why. Apple had to add a fan in order to accommodate Thunderbolt and the new processors, which necessitated dropping the MacBook in favor of an updated Air that is closer in weight to the 13” MacBook Pro. If Apple can get MacBook Pro-like speeds for native apps in a package the size of the 12” MacBook (perhaps with an edge-to-edge screen), then that would be a win, IMO.

 

[naturalstar]

ARM will go to the MacBook Air or 12” MacBook.

Do you mean that the MBA and MB with get ARM first or that they will be the only Macs to get ARM?

 

[UBS28]

Do you mean that the MBA and MB with get ARM first or that they will be the only Macs to get ARM?

They will get it first and then maybe after 2 years when all software has been ported successfully, then the MacBook Pro line will also transition maybe. The MBA and MB can easily run on ARM now as most people use them for very simple tasks and do not rely on specialized software.

The MacBook Pro, iMac Pro and Mac Pro are not ready to go to ARM right now (in my opinion). So I will be very surprised if Apple does otherwise.

 

[bill-p]

Apple still has to fix bugs in Catalina, and address problems with the 16" MacBook.

This is no time for them to be thinking about an ARM MacBook to sell to the masses.

But if they do decide to go down that route, then I guess there are no shortage of Windows computers now.

ARM remains an architecture for mobile consumption devices, not for serious work like machine learning and/or CAD and other such heavy computational works.

 

[naturalstar]

They will get it first and then maybe after 2 years when all software has been ported successfully, then the MacBook Pro line will also transition maybe. The MBA and MB can easily run on ARM now as most people use them for very simple tasks and do not rely on specialized software.

The MacBook Pro, iMac Pro and Mac Pro are not ready to go to ARM right now (in my opinion). So I will be very surprised if Apple does otherwise.

Ok, I wanted to clarify understanding before I fully responded because it has been stated over and over that the entire Mac line is transitioning to ARM. Nothing will be left on Intel. I’m curious as to what will transition first. Apple has 3 new ARM chips ready to go. Where is the 12-core processor going? That’s not going into an MBA or MB. 12 Cores to browse the net and post on social media? That smells of either an iMac/iMac Pro or maybe even the MBP 16” instead. To add, Prosser also stated on a podcast last month that the 16” MBP was going ARM early according to his sources. Right or wrong, I believe Apple is going to let everyone know they are serious about the transition by being swift and by throwing in a “professional” machine transitioning earlier in the overall process. Starting with 2021, each new release will be ARM-based (unless COVID continues to affect timelines).

As far as readiness, I’d agree, but Apple historically makes swift, user experience affecting changes unapologetically and leaves consumers with a take it or leave it decision to make. Being that I have a 10th gen 13” MBP now, my concern lies in how long will it be supported and what the ultimate benefits will be for ME in the ARM transition (I understand how Apple is benefiting). The order of which products transition to ARM and how fast are less concerning to me because either way, by the time I’m in the market again for my next Mac, everything will be ARM.

To answer OP’s question, overall I have spent more time with Windows than Mac so returning wouldn’t be a problem. I do expect that my current MBP will be supported at least for the next 3 years minimum. By that time, if Apple ends Intel support, then I’ll evaluate where my workflow stands and what’s available to meet it. I wouldn’t get a Surface Book since there’s better Windows-based laptops out there, but I get what you were asking in general.

 

[UBS28]

Ok, I wanted to clarify understanding before I fully responded because it has been stated over and over that the entire Mac line is transitioning to ARM. Nothing will be left on Intel. I’m curious as to what will transition first. Apple has 3 new ARM chips ready to go. Where is the 12-core processor going? That’s not going into an MBA or MB. 12 Cores to browse the net and post on social media? That smells of either an iMac/iMac Pro or maybe even the MBP 16” instead. To add, Prosser also stated on a podcast last month that the 16” MBP was going ARM early according to his sources. Right or wrong, I believe Apple is going to let everyone know they are serious about the transition by being swift and by throwing in a “professional” machine transitioning earlier in the overall process. Starting with 2021, each new release will be ARM-based (unless COVID continues to affect timelines).

As far as readiness, I’d agree, but Apple historically makes swift, user experience affecting changes unapologetically and leaves consumers with a take it or leave it decision to make. Being that I have a 10th gen 13” MBP now, my concern lies in how long will it be supported and what the ultimate benefits will be for ME in the ARM transition (I understand how Apple is benefiting). The order of which products transition to ARM and how fast are less concerning to me because either way, by the time I’m in the market again for my next Mac, everything will be ARM.

To answer OP’s question, overall I have spent more time with Windows than Mac so returning wouldn’t be a problem. I do expect that my current MBP will be supported at least for the next 3 years minimum. By that time, if Apple ends Intel support, then I’ll evaluate where my workflow stands and what’s available to meet it. I wouldn’t get a Surface Book since there’s better Windows-based laptops out there, but I get what you were asking in general.

The iPad Pro has 8 cores, so the 12 core ARM cpu should be fine in the MBA since it has better cooling than the iPad Pro.

I don't think a professional machine can be switched to ARM right now. But let's wait and see what happens.

 

[naturalstar]

The iPad Pro has 8 cores, so the 12 core ARM cpu should be fine in the MBA since it has better cooling than the iPad Pro.

I don't think a professional machine can be switched to ARM right now. But let's wait and see what happens.

Interesting. I don’t think a professional machine should be switched to ARM quickly at all, but Apple. I’m eager to see what’s revealed on the 22nd about all of this - hopefully much more than “Here’s ARM!”

 

[sub150]

ARM remains an architecture for mobile consumption devices, not for serious work like machine learning and/or CAD and other such heavy computational works.

That's not at all true. ARM is used in some very heavy computational supercomputers.

ARM gets more power per watt, so yes it's great for mobile consumption devices. It can also be great for a professional device. Sort of like how lithion ion batteries were originally used in small devices but are now used in cars (not the exact same but you get the point). The underlying technology is superior, it just needs time to mature and scale.

 

[theluggage]

Where is the 12-core processor going? That’s not going into an MBA or MB. 12 Cores to browse the net and post on social media?

Note that the 8-core A12 iPad chip is actually 4 high-performance cores + 4 low-power cores - the latter are used to keep your music player and web browser ticking over, the former get fired up for heavy lifting, so it's not quite the same as an 8-core i7/i9... The rumoured A14 12 core chip sounds like it's going to be 8 high performance + 4 low-power.

One of the advantages of ARM is that it can cram more cores into the same area and "thermal envelope" than x86, so expect to see more emphasis on lots of cores.

Going by the A12 benchmarks, though, the A12Z would be more than good enough for a MacBook Air and the A14 would be MacBook Pro (13" at least) territory. Probably time for a major shake-up of the range though: there's really no need for the Air and the entry-level 13" Pros to both exist if you can fit an 8+4 processor into an Air-sized chassis.

 

[KPOM]

Apple still has to fix bugs in Catalina, and address problems with the 16" MacBook.

This is no time for them to be thinking about an ARM MacBook to sell to the masses.

But if they do decide to go down that route, then I guess there are no shortage of Windows computers now.

ARM remains an architecture for mobile consumption devices, not for serious work like machine learning and/or CAD and other such heavy computational works.

The main point of Catalina was to drop support for 32-bit apps. I’m sure Apple’s plan is to make it relatively easy to port 64-bit apps from Intel to ARM.

 

[Darth Tulhu]

This thread highlights the two main scenarios regarding the Mac switching to ARM.

I can't wait to come back to it once we ACTUALLY know what Apple is going to do.

I think Apple is being underestimated though, even if Steve is no longer around to drive the transition as smoothly as before.

I would love to see Apple pull out a SERIOUS A-chip that blows x86 out of the water, and makes macOS great again.

The macOS is just too good for it to just go away, so I think those worried it'll be replaced with iPadOS are overreacting.

This WWDC will be very, very interesting.

 

[turbineseaplane]

The day they don't allow third party software (ala iOS) is the day I start looking to leave.

I have a full blown computer for a reason -- and having my experience "curated" (neutered) by the manufacturer is of no interest to me.
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I think Apple is being underestimated though

I think the skepticism here is because Apple is horrible at software basically anytime in recent memory.

The hardware I have faith in -- but the more "iOS like" the lockdown and software restrictions become on the macOS side, the less desirable the platform becomes (at least for me).

"Lockdown" is tolerated on an iPhone...less enjoyable on the iPad and, to me, totally unacceptable, on a full blown main computing device.

 

[KPOM]

Interesting. I don’t think a professional machine should be switched to ARM quickly at all, but Apple. I’m eager to see what’s revealed on the 22nd about all of this - hopefully much more than “Here’s ARM!”

They likely won’t announce any new ARM-based hardware yet, particularly since they just updated their entire MacBook line and are rumored to be announcing an updated iMac line with 10th-gen Intel processors.