I'm sure there's some rationalisation why they so belatedly made a M3 Ultra (so long after the M3 Max debuted) and skipped the M4 Ultra
The following is my speculation, based in part on this observation: There were
new (old stock, NOS) M1 Mac Studios showing up on discount outlets, as recently as a couple of months ago.
Either Apple made too many M1 MS, or made enough for a sales-target for 24 months but then introduced the M2 MS more quickly, forcing the M1 MS off the Apple sales pages, leaving Apple with many M1 MS on hand.
If so, then that is why the M2 MS has been around so long (in M-series terms, quite short for other industries). It was not going to be bumped off of the Apple sales page until its stock had run low.
These SoCs are done in one-shot at TSMC, unlike the base level M SoCs, which are probably done by TSMC over several months, as Apple needs those by the millions to tens of millions. Also, while Apple bought exclusive first-shot at TSMC "3nm" production capability, that had expired so Apple likely had to work within TSMC's timeline for producing the M3 Ultra.
The Ultra SoCs are likely less than 50,000 units, maybe less than 25,000, for each generation.
I suspect the decision to sell an M3 Ultra MS was done last summer. This allowed for TSMC to have trial versions ready for Apple engineers in the fall for system integration testing.
I also suspect that all M3 Ultra SoCs that will ever be made were made in one week last year, maybe the last TSMC N3B product for Apple.
If there will be another generation of Ultra SoCs after the M3 version, it too will be a low production run item.
For a corporation who wants to sell things by the millions, an Ultra is just a specialty item that is more for bragging rights. But then again, that is often true of flagship products.
If Apple stays with "3nm" for one more generation, the M5 will likely be on TSMC's N3P process. Whether or not there is an M5 Ultra will depend more on economics and global politics than performance, I suspect. If there is an M5 Ultra perhaps it will be on N3X process.
If so, that means TSMC could make them this year, let's say September, so an M5 Ultra product could hit the shelves by March 2026.