SNOW LEOPARD
The big question with Snow Leopard isn’t with regard to technical details, but its marketing. Starting with version 10.2, previous major updates to Mac OS X have sold for $129, and were marketed almost entirely based on their new features. Apple has explicitly made clear that with Snow Leopard its focus was not on adding new features but rather on improving and optimizing existing ones — shoring up the foundation of the core OS shared by the Mac, iPhone, Apple TV, and future products to be named later. I think this was a great idea. OS X is here for the long haul — it is the foundation of Apple’s entire business for the foreseeable future.
But how do they sell Mac OS X 10.6 to consumers if it doesn’t bring major new features? Here are the options I see:
Sell it for $129, just like previous major updates. Advertise it as faster and better. If it doesn’t sell as well as 10.5 Leopard did, well, so what? Slow uptake would be an irritation for developers who want to ship software that depends on 10.6-specific APIs, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world. And who knows? Apple has never tried selling a full-priced OS update based on something other than new features — it might sell as well or better than 10.5 did. Maybe it’s not true that people only pay for features upgrades.
Sell it for a lower price, say $59.
Sell it for a nominal price, say $19. I think free is out of the question, if only because of Apple’s interpretation of U.S. accounting regulations. They give iPhone owners free OS updates because they use subscription-based accounting for iPhones. They charge iPod Touch owners for the same OS updates, because iPod Touches aren’t accounted for on a subscription basis. The Mac is like the iPod Touch in this regard, so I think a free Snow Leopard isn’t possible.
The risk with options 2 and 3 is that it might make it more difficult for Apple to go back to charging $129 for 10.7 and beyond. But Apple is not Microsoft. OS upgrade revenue is a nice extra for Apple, not a core part of its business.
The wildcard with Snow Leopard would be if Apple were set to unveil some sort of heretofore secret new features, features which they could then use as the basis for an advertising campaign and the regular $129 price. But from everything I’ve heard, Snow Leopard development is winding down — they’re tying off loose ends and fixing bugs.
I have no idea how Apple is going to play this.
MARBLE
The other X-factor is “Marble”, the rumored redesign of the entire OS’s visual appearance. Could that be the secret Snow Leopard “feature”? Six months ago that’s what I was expecting: that from an engineering point of view, Snow Leopard’s changes would be low-level, but that by making everything look all-new, Apple would have an obvious way to sell it to consumers as something worth paying for. If it looks new it is new, from a normal person’s perspective.
But while I am convinced that “Marble” is a real design project at Apple, I no longer believe it is slated for Snow Leopard. A new visual appearance isn’t something Apple can spring on third-party developers at the last moment. If they plan to ship Snow Leopard soon — say, by the end of August — that just isn’t enough time to allow developers to update their software to look good under a new UI theme. (There’s also the problem of creating software that looks good under both the new and old themes.)
So my hunch is no Marble for Snow Leopard — that it’s now a 10.7 thing. But I’d never bet too much money on the side of Apple accommodating the needs of third-party developers.