Joe Six-Pack doesnt buy a computer for this reason. He buys for the following reasons:
1) Price
2) Perceived performance (i.e. GHz)
3) Price
SNIP
The only way Apple could ensure its long-term survival in this scenario is to make enough money off the software licensing to offset the complete loss of its hardware sales (minus the iPod, of course). This simply will not happen.
There is, of course, a second issue: the fact that the MacOS only operates as well as it does BECAUSE Apple makes the whole package. We all praise the stability and security of OS X, but this only exists because Apple can eliminate all incompatibilities with its own hardware. Once you have every company in the world making logic boards, RAM, hard drives, and whatever else for the MacOS, you've totally lost that stability. I think this is a big part of the problem with Windows right now (though not the only problem!)
The strategy for Apple to be as profitable as possible is this:
1) Keep hold of the OS AT ALL COSTS
2) Invest money into advertising, for God's sake!
3) Use some of those huge cash stores to (a) further improve R&D and (b) continue to purchase professional software packages (e.g. Shake, Motion), which will keep you profitable in the professional sector, and
4) Advertise! Did I mention that???
Mike